Welcome to the Jan Brady section of my annual NBA offseason rankings.
Jan, famously, was the middle daughter of the blended, six-child family of “The Brady Bunch,” a somewhat popular sitcom in the early ’70s that has lived on in the American Zeitgeist well past its five seasons on the air. What endures? Who knows? It was creaky and cliched back then; other than the Tiger Beat crushes young girls may have had on the older male child, and vice versa with young boys on the oldest female child, TBB’s weekly storylines fell somewhat short of the rather turbulent times in which the show originally aired. (Maybe that’s why it was popular.)
But Jan’s angst lives on, the manifestation of a middle child – not being, perhaps, as obviously attractive as her older sister Marcia, nor as precocious as her younger sister Cindy. Jan believed she didn’t get the attention Marcia received, either from boys, or from their parents, or teachers at their school, leading to her still-remembered lament to her mom: “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia.”
Similarly, if you see your team in the middle of these rankings, you may experience feelings of inadequacy, that your team isn’t getting the love it should. “Rudy, Rudy, Rudy,” you may exclaim, in exasperation. But this ignores the fact that your team is ranked higher than any of the bottom 10 teams (“who cares about them? They stink,” says your thought bubble). Fear not. Your team did some good, occasionally very good, things in the offseason. More likely than not, your team is also a returning playoff team, that probably had fewer obvious holes to fill than your rebuilding/tanking cousins. A lot of these teams are also just waiting for key players who missed a lot of time last season with injuries to return.
Buck up, Jans. You’re loved. And in the real, NBA world, most of these teams have some real traction.
What to know about these rankings
As this just covers the offseason, here’s what these rankings ARE NOT:
• A predicted order of finish for next season.
These are not “power rankings” as you have come to understand them. I am not saying the Sacramento Kings, for example, are now better than the Warriors, just because I thought Sacramento had a more impactful offseason. The Kings aren’t as good as the Dubs, so they had a lot more work to do to improve their roster. (This graph is for the “Tim F.s” of the world or similar — who, invariably, leave a version of the following in the comments every year, after reading the rankings and completely ignoring the context of the exercise: “Kings better than the Warriors, lol.”)
Accordingly, as I say every year:
• If your team is ranked in the top 10, it doesn’t mean I love your team.
• If your team is ranked in the bottom 10, it doesn’t mean I hate your team.
There’s just one question: Is the team better now than at the end of last season? The ranking reflects the belief on whether, and how much, that is so. (I liked certain guys who were in the draft more than others, for example, so if your team took them, I probably weighed it more positively. Doesn’t mean I’m right.)
Also:
• This isn’t science. It’s an educated guess. Giannis Antetokounmpo or Nikola Jokić would fit in anywhere, but most additions have to make sense for their new teams.
• Rebuilding teams obviously have different priorities than teams making a championship run; teams that fixed obvious roster weaknesses get credit, while teams that ignored or didn’t address clear deficiencies probably get dinged a little.
• A rebuilding team with a lot of cap space can make a lot of moves, but do they make sense? And a contending team that continues to go deep into the luxury/repeater tax — which most teams try to avoid — should be commended, and is so here.
• Injuries, obviously, matter. The Milwaukee Bucks aren’t as good without Khris Middleton. Not Milwaukee’s or Middleton’s, fault, but … injuries happens. Conversely, getting a key guy back after he missed time last year is a boost: See Denver, which should get Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back on the court next season.
• Continuity matters here, as well. The more successful teams usually not only identify a core group of players but also keep them together. It may also make more sense for other teams to keep their powder dry for another day.
So, here we go.
Salary numbers, with a couple of exceptions, come from Spotrac, which stays on top of this stuff as well as anyone east of Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report/Basketball Insiders/NBA TV. Draft pick details from both Spotrac and Real GM.
- Nos. 30-21: (Tuesday)
- Nos. 20-11: (Wednesday)
- Nos. 10-1: (Thursday)
20. Memphis Grizzlies
2021-22 record: 56-26; lost in Western Conference semifinals
Added: G Danny Green (acquired from Philadelphia); F Jake LaRavia (draft rights acquired from Minnesota); F David Roddy (draft rights acquired from Philadelphia); G Kennedy Chandler (draft rights acquired from San Antonio); F Vince Williams Jr. (second round, 47th pick); F Kenneth Lofton Jr. (two-way)
Lost: G De’Anthony Melton (traded to Philadelphia); F Kyle Anderson (signed with Minnesota); G Terrell Terry (waived); G TyTy Washington Jr. (draft rights traded to Houston); C Walker Kessler (draft rights traded to Minnesota); 2023 second-round pick (traded to Minnesota); 2024 second-round pick (traded to San Antonio via Lakers)
Retained: G Tyus Jones (two years, $29M)
Extended: G Ja Morant (five years, $193M); G John Konchar (three years, $19M)
Returning from Injury: F Jaren Jackson Jr. (stress fracture surgery, foot); Green (torn ACL)
The Skinny: The Grizz can’t pay everybody, so they moved on from Melton and took a flyer that Green can be ready by next postseason, when his shot and veteran chops will do Memphis the most good. It’s a gamble. We’ll see if any of the guys the Grizz picked up in a flurry of draft deals can crack the rotation with Melton and Anderson gone, but it’s not a necessity. The bigger issue: With Morant officially locked up long-term, Memphis now has to prioritize which of Dillon Brooks (unrestricted after next season), Brandon Clarke (restricted after next season) or Desmond Bane (restricted after 2023-24) is in line for the next big extension.
19. Toronto Raptors
2021-22 record: 48-34; lost in first round
Added: F Otto Porter Jr. (two years, $12.3M); F Juancho Hernangomez; C Christian Kokolo (second round, 33rd pick); F D.J. Wilson (two years, $4.5M); F Justin Champagnie (two years, $3.5M); G/F Ron Harper Jr. (two-way); G Jeff Dowtin (two-way)
Lost: None
Retained: F Chris Boucher (three years, $35.2M); F Thaddeus Young (two years, $16M); G Svi Mykhailiuk (player option, $1.8M)
Extended: None
Returning from Injury: G Fred VanVleet (hip strain, bruised knee); C Khem Birch (right knee arthroscopic surgery)
The Skinny: The Raps are a dark-horse darling to get in on the Durant sweepstakes, but if they have to include Scottie Barnes in a potential deal with Brooklyn, what would be the point? Can’t see the Nets biting on a Pascal Siakam-centric package for KD, and the Raps don’t have the surplus of requisite juicy high-lottery picks to goose a deal further along. The expectation here is that Toronto runs it back with its very good, still-young, defense-first core. Porter will do what he’s done throughout his career — spread the floor, cut, make some 3s, defend, fit in, be a pro. I’d be a little concerned going forward about FVV’s minutes; he averaged almost 38 a game last season, which tied him with teammate Siakam for the highest average in the league. Granted, it may be correlation without causation, but VanVleet also has missed 37 games the last two seasons.
18. New Orleans Pelicans
2021-22 record: 44-38; lost in first round
Added: G Dyson Daniels (first round, eighth pick); F E.J. Liddell (second round, 41st pick); C Karlo Matković (second round, 52nd pick)
Lost: None
Retained: None
Extended: F Zion Williamson (five years, $192.8M)
Returning from Injury: Williamson (surgery, fractured foot); G Kira Lewis Jr. (torn ACL, sprained MCL); Liddell (torn ACL)
The Skinny: Daniels, the G League Ignite teenager, has the kind of tool set worth waiting on, and he should quickly become a rotational backcourt piece with CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Devonte’ Graham and Jose Alvarado. New Orleans takes a major leap in the west if Williamson is anything resembling his old self next season, after missing all of 2021-22. But even if his return takes longer than hoped, the Pels have a trove of future firsts from the Lakers and Bucks remaining (six through 2027) from the Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday deals. New Orleans can be as bold as it wants to be in the trade market for some time.
17. Phoenix Suns
2021-22 record: 64-18; lost in Western Conference semifinals
Added: C Jock Landale (acquired from Atlanta); G Damion Lee (one year, $2.1M); F Josh Okogie (one year, $1.9M)
Lost: C JaVale McGee (signed with Dallas); C Frank Kaminsky (signed with Atlanta); G Aaron Holiday (signed with Atlanta)
Retained: C Deandre Ayton (matched four-year, $133M offer sheet from Pacers); C Bismack Biyombo (one year, $2.9M)
Extended: G Devin Booker (four years, $224M)
Returning from Injury: F Dario Šarić (ACL rehab)
The Skinny: Forget what we all saw in Game 7 of the conference semis against Dallas, with Monty Williams benching Ayton for most of the second half. Forget that the Suns declined to give Ayton a max offer — and told him to find one elsewhere. Forget that Ayton did just that, getting the bag from Indiana. The Suns matched in five minutes, so nothing to see here, I guess; both Williams and Ayton told ESPN’s Marc Spears it was water under the bridge. Forget that governor Robert Sarver remains under NBA investigation. Of course, you can’t forget any of the above, and you shouldn’t. For now, anyway, Phoenix has avoided needing to fill a cavernous hole in the middle by retaining Ayton for at least a year; under CBA rules, they can’t trade him anywhere for 12 months without his consent. So, the Suns will run it back with the group that went 64-18 in the regular season, with small changes to the back of the rotation – including Lee, who could definitely help.
16. Cleveland Cavaliers
2021-22 record: 44-38; lost in Play-In round
Added: G Ricky Rubio (three years, $18.4M); C Robin Lopez (one year, $2.9M); G Raul Neto (one year, $2.4M); G Ochai Agbaji (first round, 14th pick); C Khalifa Diop (second round, 39th pick); F/C Isaiah Mobley (second round, 49th pick); G Luke Travers (second round, 56th pick)
Lost: C Moses Brown (signed with Clippers)
Retained: F Dean Wade (one year, $1.93M); G RJ Nembhard (two-way)
Extended: G Darius Garland (five years, $192.8M)
Returning from Injury: G Collin Sexton (meniscus surgery); Rubio (ACL tear)
The Skinny: Nothing fancy here, and there shouldn’t be, with the Cavs’ solid young core already in place. Cleveland’s president of basketball operations Koby Altman just filled in potential cracks, bringing Rubio back after dealing him last season to Indy in the Caris LeVert trade. Rubio was giving Cleveland strong minutes on the ball when he was injured; his return should once again make things easier for Garland and/or Sexton, who’s also returning from a knee injury. And any team that adds the Hookman has had a good offseason. The Cavs have a reckoning coming in a couple of years, when Evan Mobley will certainly warrant a max deal and Jarrett Allen’s future compensation will need addressing. But that’s down the road. Cleveland’s got some time to see exactly where it fits in the East’s firmament when healthy.
15. Chicago Bulls
2021-22 record: 46-36; lost in first round
Added: G Goran Dragić (one year, $2.9M); C Andre Drummond (two years, $6.56M); G Dalen Terry (first round, 18th pick); G Javon Freeman-Liberty (Exhibit 10)
Lost: F Troy Brown Jr. (signed with Lakers)
Retained: G Zach LaVine (five years, $215.1M); F Derrick Jones Jr. (two years, $6.56M); C Tony Bradley (player option, $2M); F Justin Lewis (two-way)
Extended: None
Returning from Injury: G Lonzo Ball (meniscus surgery)
The Skinny: The Bulls got the big thing done, retaining LaVine after there were rumblings he might be looking elsewhere. Ball may not be ready for the start of next season, so the Bulls added the crafty vet Dragić as insurance — a necessity given Chicago’s anemic production (95.2 points per game, 40.4 field-goal percentage) during its gentleman’s sweep by Milwaukee. Equally important will be a return to form from LaVine, whose own knee issues slowed him dramatically as last season wore on, necessitating arthroscopic surgery in March. His diminishing returns also impacted DeMar DeRozan, as opponents loaded up on him without Ball and LaVine around. Drummond was a sneaky good pickup who’ll back up Nikola Vučević and help address Chicago’s awful (29th) standing on the glass last season. DeRozan proved those who bemoaned the haul Chicago gave to San Antonio for him wrong last year. But for the Bulls to stay in the mix in the East, they need the rest of their cavalry to get out of triage.
14. Washington Wizards
2021-22 record: 35-47; did not make playoffs
Added: G Monté Morris (acquired from Denver); G/F Will Barton (acquired from Denver); G Delon Wright (two years, $16M); C Taj Gibson (one year, $2.9M); G Johnny Davis (first round, 10th pick); C Yannick Nzosa (second round, 54th pick)
Lost: F Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (traded to Denver); G Ish Smith (traded to Denver); C Thomas Bryant (signed with Lakers); G Raul Neto (signed with Cleveland); G Tomáš Satoranský (signed with FC Barcelona)
Retained: G Bradley Beal (five years, $251M); F Anthony Gill (two years, $3.8M)
Extended: None
Returning from Injury: Beal (wrist surgery)
The Skinny: Ending years of breathless punditry and fake trades, Washington officially brought Beal, its three-time All-Star guard, back into the fold with a supermax deal. But there’s no guarantee that this latest iteration of supposed improvement — with Kristaps Porziņģis and Kyle Kuzma and Morris now flanking Beal — will go any better record-wise than last season when Spencer Dinwiddie was supposed to help Beal carry the load. Or, the previous season, when it was Russell Westbrook. Morris will be Beal’s fourth starting backcourt mate in four years. A healthy Porziņģis would certainly be the best big man Beal’s played with in D.C. since Marcin Gortat, but “healthy” has always been the issue with KP, hasn’t it? Wright will be an upgrade as the third guard, to be sure, but Washington’s hamster wheel of mediocrity won’t change until the Wizards, significantly and permanently, improve their awful defense, which will be that much harder without KCP.
13. New York Knicks
2021-22 record: 37-45; did not make playoffs
Added: G Jalen Brunson (four years, $104M); C Isaiah Hartenstein (two years, $16M); G Trevor Keels (second round, 42nd pick); G Nikola Radičević (acquired from Detroit); 2023 first-round pick (acquired from Oklahoma City via Detroit); 2023 first-round pick (acquired from Oklahoma City via Washington); 2023 first-round pick (acquired from Oklahoma City via Denver); 2025 first- and second-round picks (acquired from Detroit)
Lost: C Nerlens Noel (traded to Detroit); G Kemba Walker (traded to Detroit); G Alec Burks (traded to Detroit); F/C Taj Gibson (waived; signed with Washington); C Jalen Duren (draft rights via Charlotte traded to Detroit); F Ousmane Dieng (draft rights traded to Oklahoma City); 2023 second-round pick (traded to Detroit); 2024 second-round pick (traded to Detroit via Miami)
Retained: C Mitchell Robinson (four years, $60M); F Jericho Sims (three years, $5.66M)
Extended: None
Returning from Injury: G Derrick Rose (right ankle surgery); F Julius Randle (quad); F Cam Reddish (right AC joint)
The Skinny: Clearly, the Knicks’ ranking would climb upward if they manage to pull off a trade for Donovan Mitchell after getting Brunson from Dallas. It matters not that Mitchell and Brunson would be a small, defense-challenged backcourt; a talent as dynamic as Mitchell, the 25-year-old, three-time All-Star, lifts any team’s ceiling. There would be, though, a potential traffic jam in the paint with a Brunson/Mitchell/Randle/Robinson group, no matter if the other forward is RJ Barrett or Evan Fournier or Obi Toppin. But that’s Tom Thibodeau’s problem. At the very least, the Knicks look to have finally addressed their long-term issue on the ball with Brunson, who bet on himself and won. And after moving back twice in the first round this year to amass multiple future first-round picks, New York has significant accumulated assets in the next three years it could package to go in any number of promising directions.
12. LA Clippers
2021-22 record: 42-40; lost in Play-In round
Added: G John Wall (two years, $13.28M); F/C Moussa Diabaté (second round, 43rd pick); C Moses Brown (Exhibit 10)
Lost: C Isaiah Hartenstein (signed with Knicks)
Retained: F Robert Covington (two years, $24M); F Nicolas Batum (two years, $22.55M); G Amir Coffey (three years, $11M); G Jay Scrubb (Exhibit 10); G Xavier Moon (Exhibit 10)
Extended: C Ivica Zubac (three years, $32.8M)
Returning from Injury: F Kawhi Leonard (torn ACL)
The Skinny: It’s all about who’s discharged from the Clips’ medical ward, and when, and how fast they return to their pre-injury forms — if they return from their pre-injury forms. Leonard’s now 31, and if he’s not yet ready for the Old Forwards’ Home, he’s not a kid anymore, either. If he’s again an MVP-level player playing alongside an also-again-healthy Paul George, the Clips are right back in the mix for a finals berth. But we won’t know that for sure until they’re on the court. Using Wall off the bench as a second-unit quarterback would seem to be the right play — assuming he accepts without complaint a role behind incumbent Reggie Jackson, who’s earned the starting PG spot. Who gets the non-Zubac five minutes going forward with Hartenstein and Serge Ibaka, who played more from December until he was traded to Milwaukee at the deadline, both gone? It would be no surprise to see a vet wind up here later in the summer on a minimum deal. (Blake Griffin’s still out there, as of this writing. Just sayin’.)
11. Orlando Magic
2021-22 record: 22-60; did not make playoffs
Added: F Paolo Banchero (first round, first pick); F Caleb Houstan (second round, 32nd pick)
Lost: C Robin Lopez (signed with Cleveland)
Retained: G Gary Harris (two years, $26M); C Mo Bamba (two years, $20.6M); F/C Bol Bol (two years, $4.4M); G Admiral Schofield (two-way)
Extended: None
Returning from Injury: G Jalen Suggs (stress fracture, right ankle); F Jonathan Isaac (hamstring); Bol (foot)
The Skinny: If you have a secret, tell Orlando’s front office. They kept their interest in Banchero dark for weeks before pouncing on the Duke freshman with the first pick. He’d fit in anywhere but should be especially good with a Magic frontcourt that could stand some more pop. The idea of Banchero pounding away at the elbows with Franz Wagner crashing the wings has a lot of appeal. The Magic still thought enough of Bamba to re-sign him to, presumably, back up Banchero, on a team-friendly deal. I’m not at all sure, though, how Jamahl Mosley is supposed to find enough backcourt minutes for all of Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, Suggs, Harris, R.J. Hampton and Terrence Ross. At the least, the Magic’s surplus of guards and future firsts coming (from Chicago and Denver) give Orlando the flexibility to put together credible packages in summers to come for stars who could play alongside Banchero.
(Top Photo: Art by Wes McCabe / The Athletic; Bradley Beal by Michael Reaves / Getty Images; Deandre Ayton by Sarah Stier / Getty Images; John Wall by Barry Gossage / Getty Images)
