How the beaten NBA Playoff teams can improve plus conference finals previews

And then there were four. The conference semis of the NBA Playoffs got hectic in a matter of days, and this column will provide suggestions for what each losing team can do to improve ahead of next season. Additionally, we give brief previews of the conference finals.

How the 76ers, Grizzlies, Bucks and Suns get better

76ers

On the heels of a 2021 second-round meltdown, the Sixers made significant changes to their roster and proceeded to exit the 2022 postseason disappointingly. Most are currently down on Philly, and understandably so, but you can easily look at this thing as glass-half-full or half-empty.

The half-full approach: Joel Embiid had injuries that caused him to miss games and limited him when he was healthy enough to play, and yet, the Sixers were two wins away from the Eastern Conference Finals. Even with James Harden’s slowed offensive attack, the Harden-Embiid pick and roll was great and will only improve with more reps. Throw on top of that Tobias Harris’ solid play during the postseason and Tyrese Maxey’s ascension to a legitimate No. 2 scoring option (with another presumed leap in Year 3), and you could convince yourself the Sixers may be alright.

But the more appropriate approach is to look at this glass as half empty. Philadelphia moved picks and depth to Brooklyn at the trade deadline, and now its bench is incredibly thin. Danny Green has an ACL injury that will likely force him to miss the upcoming season, Matisse Thybulle is a non-factor on offense and Georges Niang left a lot to be desired with his playoff showing.

The Sixers need more than four or five playable bodies for the playoffs and the 82-game stretch, especially given their two highest-paid players are injury risks. Flipping Harden is unlikely for many reasons, so getting off Harris’ contract via trade is the best route. Convincing any team to take on his contract for multiple role players doesn’t seem likely, but perhaps there is a sign-and-trade scenario out there involving Harris that can help land the third star that Philly has been wanting. Would the Sixers have enough assets to attach?

Grizzlies

No, the Memphis Grizzlies are not better without Ja Morant. If they were, they would have figured out how to close Games 4 and 6 without him, similar to how they did with him in Game 2 and the multiple other occasions throughout their playoff run. But the debate over whether or not a 56-win team is better without its MVP candidate speaks volumes to how good the Grizzlies are currently and how much better they could eventually be.

How do they take this season and improve on it? The Grizzlies must decide what to do with their own free agents, particularly Tyus Jones. Jones would likely continue to serve as a backup if he returns but has shown he can successfully play alongside Ja and even fill in for him adequately as the 2021-22 MIP is, unfortunately, no stranger to injuries.

Another area where Memphis could improve is at center. I appreciate the screening, offensive rebounding, and selflessness that Steven Adams brought to the team all season long. Still, Taylor Jenkins went away from him for mostly all of the Minnesota series and didn’t turn to Adams until later against the Warriors (Covid may have had something to do with Game 3). So, that could indicate there is a preferred upgrade there.

Memphis could use some of its cap space to go after a big fish in free agency — potentially one by the name of Deandre Ayton, who had an interesting end to his season. But if Memphis chooses not to spend big on outside free agents, Adams’ expiring contract and assets could make good use for teams that might be sellers this summer. Indiana and Myles Turner come to mind if the Grizzlies want Jaren Jackson Jr.-like production from their starting center without actually playing JJJ at the position.

Bucks

The Bucks’ season ended over the weekend for many reasons. Some reasons include their inability to make or defend the 3-point shot and the Celtics ultimately just being a better team this series than Milwaukee without Khris Middleton. Regardless, the defending champions are done until the 2022-23 season and their road to redemption is complicated.

Milwaukee feels a little incomplete at the moment. The Bucks don’t need a Tyus Jones-caliber backup, but rolling out George Hill for meaningful postseason minutes was bad. Also, Wes Matthews is set to hit unrestricted free agency and both Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton have player options that they could potentially decline to make more money on the market. Those are three important pieces of Milwaukee’s playoff rotation whose futures with the team is uncertain. Suppose things don’t break in Milwaukee’s favor regarding those three. In that case, the Bucks could be looking at just Grayson Allen, Jrue Holiday, Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Brook Lopez as players Mike Budenholzer could confidently play each night until further moves are made.

The Bucks have to hit on the edges. Getting Portis and Connaughton back is critical, and finding someone not named Jeff Teague or George Hill in free agency to back up Holiday. Perhaps they will find some good veterans on the market, like Matthews, willing to take minimum.

Suns

No outcome this season was more shocking than Sunday’s Game 7 between the Suns and Mavericks. This 64-win team suddenly has more questions than answers.

History suggests that it becomes increasingly challenging to get over the hump with each passing postseason flame out. Look no further than the Lob City Clippers and the modern-day Utah Jazz as examples of teams who were championship contenders at a point in time but had the same repeated failures with similar rosters year after year. The pre-championship Bucks and pre-championship Raptors were steering down those paths but ultimately locked in franchise-altering trades to evade the inevitable disappointment.

If the Suns bypass running it back and choose to try and make improvements by shaking things up, making a trade is presumably the only way to go, given their cap situation. In that case, Devin Booker isn’t going anywhere, and on the heels of the Mavs series, a Chris Paul trade probably isn’t going to fetch much value in return. A sign-and-trade involving Ayton is an option but those are usually tricky, so there’s no telling what that could amount to. The Suns’ best option is to package a first-round pick with one of their expiring contracts (Jae Crowder, Dario Saric, etc.) or good role players (Mikal Bridges or Cam Johnson) to get an upgrade or reliable scoring option to co-exist with Booker. The sheer thought of trading Bridges is tough but nothing should be off the table if Phoenix is trying to rebound from this awful ending.

Conference finals previews

Celtics vs. Heat

It’s astonishing how similar the two teams have performed in the playoffs. Both have three losses and are scoring exactly 99 points per game over those three while having awful shooting splits — 42.1/25.5/82.6 for Miami and 40.3/32.5/81.2 for Boston. And in their eight wins, the two teams are scoring over 110.0 points per game and shooting near 48.0 percent from the floor, with Boston’s average made threes (15.3) compared to Miami’s (11.9) being the only main difference.

Even with what we know about these offenses, defense is where these two hang their hats. During this round, each team is walking into stylistic changes that will be complete opposites of what their previous two opponents presented.

For the Celtics, the “cut the head off the snake” approach likely isn’t as important of a technique here as it was against Milwaukee and Brooklyn. Jimmy Butler is fantastic but Miami isn’t an isolation-heavy, 1-on-1 style of offense, and Ime Udoka’s defense should gameplan for Miami’s outside shooting and its constant movement in the halfcourt. Similarly, the approach for the Heat isn’t as simple as “eliminate Trae” or “double Embiid” and let the rest prove they can cook. Boston’s offense has far more firepower and than either of Miami’s previous two opponents.

Nonetheless, It feels as though many defensive masterclasses are on the horizon. The Heat aren’t dealing with the flawed defenses they faced in rounds 1 and 2 that regularly kept numerous subpar defenders on the court, and Bam Adebayo at center presents a vastly different challenge for Boston than Brook Lopez or Portis did in the conference semis.

Mavericks vs. Warriors

The season series between the Mavs and the Warriors gave us a little of everything. One game saw both teams light up the scoreboard, another had both failing to hit 100 points. Two games were decided by single digits, and two by 17 or more points. Those sporadic outcomes from the season series are representative of how Golden State and Dallas have operated in the conference semifinals. But a new series offers a refresh. Not everything Dallas did vs. Phoenix will translate to this round, and ditto for Golden State coming from the Memphis matchup. Yet, even though these two are relatively new to one another in a playoff setting, Golden State already has at least a little taste of what it’s going to get from Dallas via prior playoff matchups.

The Warriors are not even a week removed from a series in which they game-planned defensively for a uniquely ball-dominant guard capable of controlling and taking over games individually. Luka is a step above Morant in that regard and is probably even closer to what some of these Warriors repeatedly dealt with for years in the LeBron James-Cleveland Cavaliers era. Dallas had some reps against guards (Devin Booker) who move off-ball and utilizes dribble handoffs a fair amount. But nothing compares to how Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole attack without the ball.

Simple and boring analysis here, but this series really boils down to shot-making. Dallas’ strategy will call for Luka isolating, and other times it’ll be on Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson to create shots. It’s who the Mavericks are, regardless of the opponent. Their 2022 postseason wins with Doncic have come when he scores 27.2 percent of the team’s points. That number jumps to 34.3 percent in Dallas’ four losses. Everyone has to chip in and make shots for the Mavs to succeed. Likewise, if Poole’s, Curry’s, and Thompson’s field-goal percentages are going to hover around the 40 percent mark for another series, the Warriors will be in another tough series, no matter how many big moments they get from guys like Kevon Looney, Andrew Wiggins and Otto Porter Jr.

This should be a fascinating series.

(Photo of Deandre Ayton: Barry Gossage / NBAE via Getty Images)