Basketball

Bucks-Nets series odds, preview: Can Giannis Antetokounmpo upset Kevin Durant and Brooklyn?


Both the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks enter Saturday’s conference semifinals having temporarily put to rest the skepticisms that had followed throughout the regular season. For Brooklyn, it was a question of whether or not the Big 3’s on-paper potential would be realized in time for the playoffs given the trio’s lack of minutes played together. However, the Nets followed through on the “scary hours” self-proclamation and made quick work of the Boston Celtics in five games with the Big 3 looking supreme in every way. Milwaukee, on the other hand, went into a first-round matchup against the very team that embarrassed them in the 2020 playoffs and bounced them from the bubble. Yet, this time around, the Bucks handed out the embarrassments and completely dominated the Miami Heat in a first-round sweep.

Now, the two favorites to come out of the Eastern conference must turn the page from round one and enter phase two of the championship quest. The oddsmakers at BetMGM have the Nets as the likely winner of this series between the two at -200 odds. However, if the regular-season series was a precursor to what the conference semifinals could bring, any projections may be hard to conclude.

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The Bucks took two of three games from the Nets during the shortened 72-game regular season with each of the three games having been decided by six points or fewer — albeit with Brooklyn not having the Harden-Durant-Irving trio available for either of the three games. Yet the contests were evenly matched and each still featured enough elite individual talents on the offensive side of the ball to produce highly entertaining scoring performances. The Over/Under was only missed on a single occasion when the two teams fell 12 points shy of the totals (240), but the O/U was surpassed in the other two games as both teams combined to go over the projected totals (243). With Brooklyn’s Big 3 now intact and Milwaukee’s offense having conquered Miami’s stingy defense, expect these offenses to keep on humming during this upcoming series.

Series will end in how many games?

Odds

4 games

+600

5 games

+260

6 games

+200

7 games

+190

Making sense of what transpired in the regular season peaks curiosities for what could possibly happen in the near future. Now, new questions are on the doorsteps of Game 1 and they’ll serve as potential keys in determining the outcome of the second round:

Defense will be played, but how much will it matter? 

Milwaukee offers potentially the greatest remaining solution to the task that is slowing down Brooklyn’s explosive offense. While Giannis Antetokoumpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and PJ Tucker do provide quality perimeter defense to make things difficult for the Nets, those same defenders had a hard enough time slowing down an incomplete Brooklyn offense during the season series. Conversely, the Nets had no answer for Giannis all season long. He averaged 39.7 points and five assists on 49 percent shooting over the three regular-season matchups, while Nets defenders struggled to maintain him.

Which role players will make an impact?

So much was made of the Brooklyn Nets playing unfairly in the buyout market by bringing in Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge, unfortunately, had to step away from the game to prioritize his health, but Griffin remains on the team and even won the starting center spot during the Celtics series. The Nets need someone like Griffin to make an impact on both ends of the floor in this upcoming matchup.

Both Bryn Forbes and Joe Harris found their rhythms in round one and displayed some incredibly hot shooting performances. Some carryover into round two would be significant for their respective teams.

Will the coaches make the proper adjustments?

Brooklyn Nets coach Steve Nash is new to this. He’s got a lot of experience alongside him on the staff, but this is his show. And if the Nets are put into a situation where chess moves need to be made, it’s natural to question the capabilities of a first-time head coach.

On the opposite sideline, Milwaukee Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer is a two-time winner of the NBA’s Coach of the Year award and has led several teams to great regular-season success. However, he’s oftentimes left a lot to be desired in his postseason strategies and adjustments. His Bucks squandered a 2-0 lead in the Eastern conference finals to the Toronto Raptors back in 2019, and his 2020 team — who had the best record in the NBA — was on the wrong end of a gentleman’s sweep which came at the hands of a five seed. So the question of whether or not coach Budenholzer will make the correct adjustments is a valid one.

It’s unfortunate that this matchup is taking place during the second round since both teams have enough talent to be crowned conference champions, or even NBA champions. This is expected to be an exciting matchup as Giannis and his upgraded supporting cast take on a finally healthy Big 3 in Brooklyn. Milwaukee got the better of Brooklyn in the regular season, but this second-round matchup provides a clean slate for both teams.

(Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)

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