Trail Blazers – Nuggets breakdown: How Jusuf Nurkic vs. Nikola Jokic will determine who wins the series

Two postseasons ago, the No. 2-seed Denver Nuggets and No. 3-seed Portland Trailblazers battled to the waning moments of the 2019 Western conference semifinals’ game 7, with Portland guard CJ McCollum isolating his way to the left elbow for a mini dagger with 11.5 seconds to go. The shot catapulted Portland into the conference finals while Denver exited the playoffs on their home court. A long two years later — for many reasons — the two franchises face off against one another in the NBA playoffs, albeit around sooner than when they previously met.

How did we get here? Well, the Damian Lillard-led Trailblazers rallied during the final weeks of the regular season to put themselves in the sixth spot out west. Yet, they remained on the brink of back-to-back play-in tournament appearances heading into game 72, with the Los Angeles Lakers breathing down their necks for the final guaranteed playoff spot. Ironically, it was a win over Denver — who played their starters sparsely in that game  — that cemented the two teams into the 3 vs. 6 matchups. PThus, ortland avoided the play-in, and Denver avoided the Lakers — a win-win situation for both parties.

Each team’s complementary pieces differ greatly from the 2019 series, but the core pieces remain intact. Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, and Jusuf Nurkic vs. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Will Barton once again — although Murray and Barton have been sidelined with injuries. Still, Denver opened up the series as the betting favorite (-120) to win the round, according to BetMGM.

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Tied at two games apiece, the wins and losses have had familiar plots to them. Portland won Games 1 and 4 by taking care of the ball and sharing it amongst each other — the 29 and 24 assists allowed the Trailblazers to have five or more players reach double figures in both games. Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic was limited to just one assist in each of these Denver losses — taking away a good portion of the functionality in their offense. Games 2 and 3 went the Nuggets’ way largely due to Portland’s inferior frontcourt depth. Nurkic fouled out of both games and left the likes of Enes Kanter and Carmelo Anthony to deal with Jokic in the defensive post. Nevertheless, points were scored, and when double-teams came, Jokic found his teammates — especially in Game 3 when double-teams led to two Austin Rivers three-pointers and one Aaron Gordon dunk to put the game out of reach down the stretch.

So here we are, back at square one. It’s anyone’s series headed into the final three games, but there’s good reason to lean either way. The oddsmakers see the Trailblazers as the new favorite to win the series, putting their odds at -140. For Portland to reach four wins first, it must have some luck with the whistle.

When Nurkic is not on the court, it’s been mostly disastrous for Portland. The Trail Blazers have been minus-43 in his 76 bench minutes, including minus-33 in their two losses — both games in which he fouled out. However, the Trailblazers have been dominant when he is on the court. Nurkic leads his team with a plus-53 in his 116 minutes played, 17 points higher than the next Blazer, Damian Lillard. Nurkic has been arguably the most important player for Portland thus far, and coach Terry Stotts may have figured this out. In Game 4, Stotts ditched the “Enes Kanter at backup center” minutes and opted to roll out Jusuf Nurkic for all but two seconds of Nikola Jokic’s minutes — essentially mirroring their minutes. As a result, Jokic was forced to work defensively in the post and struggled to score over Nurkic’s strong defensive showing. The result? Nurkic plus-32, Jokic minus-32.

While Portland has emerged as the betting favorite, Denver still has a path to advancing to the second round. It may sound generic, but they’ll need their scoring contributions to expand past Jokic being dominant.

Simply put, Jokic needs help if Nurkic continues to play big minutes. The Nuggets only had three non-Jokic players reach double digits in Game 1 and just four in Game 4 — a game in which none of them could muster more than 12 points, including Michael Porter Jr., who scored just three. While he’s earned praise for his numerous scoring outbursts, Porter Jr. hasn’t met expectations in the series thus far. He’ll need to become Denver’s definitive No. 2 scoring option if they want to survive this round. However, Denver’s supporting cast did show up in the team’s two wins during Games 2 and 3. The Nuggets had six non-Jokic players score at least 10 points in the first win and five in the second. These increased scoring contributions from role players are what will ultimately give Denver its greatest chance at winning.

As we head into Tuesday’s Game 5, both teams will look to lean on what has worked for them. For Portland, Nurkic has got to stay out of foul trouble and the defense has to continue to stop Denver’s complimentary pieces from flourishing. At the same time, the Nuggets need Porter Jr. to be Jokic’s scoring counterpart, all while receiving some additional scoring boosts from the other key players. Whatever the result, Tuesday’s outcome will go a long way in making sense of the rest of this series. But for now, we must wait.

(Top photo: Photo by Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)