With 68 slots in the 2020 N.C.A.A. tournament, many of the 300 Division I teams that began the college basketball season last week can legitimately dream about making a postseason run.
The level of separation between programs is much smaller than it was last season, providing more opportunities for teams to break through in March.
Here are a few to keep an eye on well before Selection Sunday.
Michigan State The Spartans are already dealing with adversity, but Coach Tom Izzo is always up for overcoming obstacles. Anything less than winning a national title will be viewed as a disappointment in East Lansing. “We’ve got to embrace the pressure,” Izzo said. “It’s a privilege.” The sophomore Aaron Henry has to become a consistent third scoring option alongside Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman.
Duke Transcendent talents like Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett are no longer in the Blue Devils’ program, but there is more than enough remaining in Durham. The sophomore point guard Tre Jones anchors a perimeter with tremendous defensive potential. The freshmen Cassius Stanley, Matthew Hurt and Vernon Carey will all play significant roles.
Louisville Coach Chris Mack has advanced to the second weekend of the N.C.A.A. tournament three times in the last six years, but he has never been to a Final Four. That could change this time around. Mack, who was the Xavier coach before taking his post at Louisville, has a veteran team that returns six of its top seven scorers. The junior Jordan Nwora is a candidate to be an all-American. “He can single-handedly change a game,” Mack said.
Kansas A pending punishment from the N.C.A.A. most likely won’t have an impact on the talent of this Jayhawks team. Coach Bill Self has all-Americans at both point guard and center in Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike. The sophomore wing Ochai Agbaji is on the verge of becoming a star.
Kentucky Tuesday’s loss to Evansville was the most shocking defeat for this program in years. It doesn’t diminish the long-term hopes for the Wildcats, though. Coach John Calipari has always been able to get his team to improve throughout the course of a season. The freshman guard Tyrese Maxey has already displayed the potential to be a star, while the sophomore Ashton Hagans is the best on-ball defender in the country. Kentucky will have Final Four potential in March.
Maryland It has been more than 17 years since the Terps won a national title in 2002. This looks like their best chance since then. Coach Mark Turgeon has veteran guards, quality depth and a 2020 first-round N.B.A. pick in Jalen Smith, a sophomore big man. “We have top-10 talent,” Turgeon said. “This is definitely a team talent-wise and depth-wise that can make noise if we come together.”
Villanova Inexperience is the main concern for the Wildcats. Talent is not. Coach Jay Wright again has an impressive roster, led by the junior point guard Collin Gillespie. “We’re going to have freshmen contribute more than we have in the past,” Wright said. “We’ve got to do a better job of getting those guys ready early.” Teams won’t want to play Villanova by mid-January.
Oregon A run of four trips to the round of 16 in the last seven years has made Oregon an elite program under Coach Dana Altman. A fifth trip appears to be on the horizon. The senior point guard Payton Pritchard stabilizes a new yet talented roster that should be even better if it adds the 7-foot freshman N’Faly Dante in December. Dante was ruled ineligible for the first semester after the N.C.A.A. missed his clearance date.
Virginia No one is going to want to play Virginia in March. Or before, for that matter. Through two games, the Cavaliers are holding opponents to an average of 34 points. Virginia is also holding opponents to under 25 percent shooting, both from the field and from 3-point range.
Florida The Gators’ ceiling is significantly higher than they displayed in a loss Sunday to Florida State. Much as it was last season, offensive efficiency is a question. If Florida solves that issue, its perimeter should have more than enough to complement Kerry Blackshear, a Virginia Tech grad transfer, inside. “We’ve been talented here, but we’re more talented this year,” Coach Mike White said.
The Dark Horses
Arizona Nico Mannion, Josh Green and Zeke Nnaji are as good as any other freshman triumvirate in the sport. Arizona’s veterans aren’t bad either. Max Hazzard, a graduate transfer from U.C. Irvine, and Jemarl Baker, a transfer from Kentucky who received a waiver to play immediately, give Arizona Coach Sean Miller the perimeter depth necessary to be a factor in March.
Seton Hall The senior guard Myles Powell is an all-American candidate, but the Pirates are much more than one man. Coach Kevin Willard returns nine of his top 10 scorers from last year’s team, which reached the N.C.A.A tournament. The Pirates also added two quality pieces up front in the Florida State transfer Ikey Obiagu and the freshman big man Tyrese Samuel. “We’re one of the biggest teams in college basketball,” Willard said. “We’ve got to play more physical than we have in the past.”
Baylor Guards win, and Baylor has lots of them. The sophomore guard Jared Butler is on the verge of becoming a star, while his supporting cast on the perimeter is loaded with speed, quickness and experience. Coach Scott Drew has reached the Elite Eight twice in his coaching career (2010, 2012). A third trip is a more than a legitimate possibility if the Bears can stay healthy.
Florida State Florida State’s 12-point win against Florida last Sunday showed that it has the potential to be a force in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Coach Leonard Hamilton has led the Seminoles to the second weekend of the N.C.A.A tournament in each of the past two seasons, but still has never been to the Final Four. Florida State’s depth and backcourt experience could give him a chance to get there in 2020.
Louisiana State The Tigers are beginning this season in obscurity despite advancing to the round of 16 last March. Unlike last season, when L.S.U. could physically overwhelm opponents in the paint, this year the team is built more on skill and shotmaking. Coach Will Wade has one of nation’s most underrated backcourts in Javonte Smart and Skylar Mays.
The Midmajors
Western Kentucky Coach Rick Stansbury has done everything in Bowling Green except make the N.C.A.A. tournament. That should change in 2020. Western Kentucky is the overwhelming favorite in Conference USA thanks to the 6-11 big man Charles Bassey, who considered the N.B.A. draft last spring before opting to go back to school for his sophomore season. The Hilltoppers have high-major talent throughout their program.
Harvard If healthy, the Crimson could have one of the top rosters in Ivy League history. Coach Tommy Amaker is still waiting on the return of Seth Towns, who missed all of last season with a knee injury. Harvard still has several other players who could shine in any conference, headlined by guards Noah Kirkwood and Bryce Aiken along with the burly big man Chris Lewis.
Saint Mary’s The Gaels’ loss to Winthrop on Monday night was a letdown after a season-opening win over Wisconsin. This team, though, is still built for the long term. The senior guard Jordan Ford is one of the best guards in the country.
Utah State Returning experience is a big advantage in college basketball. The Aggies have plenty of it. Utah State returns its top four scorers from last season’s team, which won both the Mountain West regular-season and tournament titles. The senior guard Sam Merrill is an off-the-radar candidate to be an all-American, while the 7-footer Neemias Queta is a candidate to be a first-round pick in the N.B.A. draft next year. Queta, though, has yet to play this season because of a knee injury.
Vermont Is this the season when Vermont finally advances in the N.C.A.A. tournament for the first time under Coach John Becker? It’s very possible. Anthony Lamb, a do-everything forward, leads a veteran group, and the Catamounts have made two of the past three N.C.A.A. tournaments. Vermont also has an impressive 45-3 record over the past three years in America East regular-season conference games.
