WEST: Memphis Grizzlies (32-33, 8th)
Remaining games: Portland, Utah, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, New Orleans (2 games), Boston
Combined record: 289-225, .562
Key game: Game 1 against Portland. With a 3.5-game lead, it’s going to be tough for anyone to pass Memphis. If Memphis wins just three of its last eight games, two trailing teams would have to go 7-1 to knock them down to 10th place. So dealing Portland a loss early is huge. Dame Lillard will be a great test for Ja Morant, and the returning Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins will be irresistible targets for his wildly ambitious poster dunk attempts.
What they need to do: Go 3-5 – and get Justise Winslow up to speed. Do the Grizzlies have a beef with the NBA for adding the play-in? No, because no team with a losing record should feel entitled to a playoff spot. In fact, the short season rules help them – with awful teams gone, their rivals’ schedules are relatively harder, and the double-elimination element of the play-in is a huge advantage for whoever finishes eighth. Memphis can hold their spot by not totally face-planting in Orlando. Adding Winslow to the rotation should guarantee the young Grizzlies stay upright.
Keane’s playoff odds: 65%. Even if the ninth-place team had a 60% chance to beat Memphis in any given game, the odds are only 36% to beat them two straight.
Portland Trail Blazers (29-37, 9th)
Remaining games: Memphis, Houston, Dallas, Boston, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Utah, *Memphis (reportedly this opponent will be determined by league algorithm; Memphis would have already played eight games)
Combined record: 297-221, .573
Key game: Game 2 against Houston. The Blazers will look significantly different with Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins back from injury. But that added frontcourt depth might not matter against the Lilliputian Rockets, who decided they hate playing centers more than Tilman Fertitta hates paying luxury tax. A rested Lillard is the scariest player in this group of teams for a win-or-go-home game, but to get there he’s going to have to break the hearts of Houston and Russell Westbrook one more time.
What they need to do: Play defense like they did with a healthy Nurkic in 2017-18. Who knows what they’ll get from Collins and Nurkic, but it will be an upgrade – and allow them to limit the power forward minutes of their young and/or bad players. They probably need to go 6-2 unless they win both Memphis games –- could Carmelo Anthony get a COVID-19 exception and play in a hoodie?
Keane’s playoff odds: 12%. As tough as Dame is, the schedule is tougher.
New Orleans Pelicans (28-36, 10th)
Remaining games: Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, San Antonio, Memphis, Sacramento, Memphis, Orlando
Combined record: 262-252, .510
Key game: Both Memphis games. To us, it’s clear why the NBA chose an eight-game season to resume play. It was the best way to guarantee two matchups between Zion and Ja. If the Pelicans want to make the playoffs and earn a revenge series against the Laker team that used to employ half their roster, they’re going to have to sweep Memphis.
What they need to do: Control their own destiny. The Pelicans not only have an easy remaining schedule, but they get to play five games against three of their four biggest rivals -– only Portland avoids the wrath of Zion. Specifically, they need to hit their open three-pointers, which should be plentiful when Zion gets double-teamed. And go 6-2, or 7-1 if they can’t sweep Memphis.
Keane’s playoff odds: 15%. It should be lower, but Zion defies the laws of physics and probability.
Sacramento Kings (28-36, 11th)
Remaining games: New Orleans, Brooklyn, Dallas, Houston, Orlando, New Orleans, Indiana, San Antonio
Combined record: 262-254, .508
Key game: Game 1 against New Orleans. The Pelicans were a different team without Zion, but De’Aaron Fox was just as important to the Kings, who went 16-13 when he played in 2020. The Kings haven’t been to the playoffs in 14 years, so the first game will be huge for this young team’s confidence. Plus, it’s one of just three games the Kings get to play against their competition for the 8/9 slots.
What they need to do: Get De’Aaron Fox to follow Marvin Bagley III on Instagram again. Look, we have no idea if or why they’re feuding, but the clearest sign for locker room dissension is the Instagram unfollow, which Fox hit Bagley with recently. If these teammates don’t like each other, or “like” each other, this Kings’ playoff run is doomed. Also, they need to sweep the Pelicans.
Keane’s playoff odds: 3%, and 0% if Bagley blocks Fox on Twitter in revenge.
San Antonio Spurs (27-36, 12th)
Remaining games: Denver, Memphis, New Orleans, Utah, Utah, Denver, Sacramento, *New Orleans (reportedly this opponent will be determined by league algorithm; New Orleans would have already played eight games)
Combined record: 284-231, .551
Key game: The Spurs need to get revenge on Denver for last year’s playoff defeat, and they need to beat them twice. Sure, Denver is more talented than San Antonio, but that was also the case last season, and their playoff series came down to the final seconds of Game 7.
What they need to do: Get Gregg Popovich a personal chef and sommelier, because the restaurants of Orlando aren’t going to be up to his standards. The Spurs do get a hobbled Utah team twice, and get two shots at New Orleans, and a well-fed Coach Pop could possibly outscheme them. It’s a long shot, but think of how hilariously disappointed ESPN would be if they got a first-round Spurs series instead of Ja or Zion!
Keane’s playoff odds: 5%, and that’s purely out of veteran experience, craftiness and spite.
Phoenix Suns (26-39, 13th)
Remaining games: Dallas, Clippers, Dallas, Indiana, Washington, Philadelphia, Miami, Oklahoma City
Combined record: 307-214, .589
Key game: The second Dallas matchup. The Suns have to leapfrog four different teams and gain two games on Memphis just to reach the play-in. Given their brutal schedule, the most important thing is to not get eliminated by Dallas. Because otherwise, they’ll have to endure another round of experts blasting them for passing on Luka Doncic with the No. 1 pick.
What they need to do: Pray. If they got to play any of the West teams between 8 and 13, their chances could go from “impossible” to “extremely slim” but they’re playing four East teams instead. Even going 8-0 might not be enough –- and they’re not going 8-0. So Devin Booker & Co. need to enjoy the closest thing to postseason basketball they’ve had in 10 years. And take Ricky Rubio on Space Mountain! He’ll love it!
Keane’s playoff odds: 0%
