Energy

World's climate goal is slipping away


Scientists have called it: The world has blown its shot at keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius — the line between really bad and really, really bad.

A new report from the University of Hamburg concludes that keeping warming below 1.5 C is “currently not plausible,” though a less ambitious target of 2 C could still be within reach. But even that would require countries like the U.S. doubling down on efforts to cut carbon pollution and put them in motion yesterday, writes POLITICO’s E&E News reporter Chelsea Harvey.

That’s not the message you’ll hear trumpeted by world leaders who — hesitant to declare the 1.5 C target a total failure — are pushing governments to do everything they can to cut their climate pollution. Yet as Chelsea wrote late last year, “many scientists privately believe the world has already hit the point of no return. And some say it’s time to make that message public.”

What this means: If (or when) the world warms past 1.5 C above preindustrial levels, expect extremely hot days, large-scale drought, loss of entire ecosystems, species die-off, rising sea levels, food insecurity, loss of habitable land, forced migration and more extreme weather disasters — all of which increase annual fatalities and compromise public health.

The world has already warmed by more than 1 C since preindustrial levels. Doubling that could bring planetary catastrophe.That’s why U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned during last year’s climate summit in Egypt that “we are getting dangerously close to the point of no return.”

Still, dramatically and quickly slashing carbon pollution will reduce the severity of this reality. So what’s getting in the way? The report, known as the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, looked at factors that affect the world’s ability to meet the Paris climate accord’s target of keeping warming “well below” 2 C.

These include direction from the U.N. regional initiatives, existing regulations, corporate responses, fossil fuel divestments and consumption patterns.

While some of these are driving a reduction in greenhouse gases, not one is moving aggressively enough to achieve “deep decarbonization” by 2050, the report finds. And two factors are actively impairing the global effort: corporations and the amount of energy, food and other materials the world produces and consumes.

“The majority of companies are still not responding adequately to support decarbonization,” the report found.

Time to prepare: While the report stresses the need to more aggressively slash planet-warming pollution (it’s not all-or-nothing; every bit of emissions reduction helps), it also recommends that policymakers recognize that the world is warming — and take decisive actions to adapt to that change, such as fortifying vulnerable structures and planning for mass migration.

It’s Thursday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO’s Power Switch. I’m your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to [email protected]

Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Gloria Gonzalez breaks down how Puerto Rico’s move toward privatizing its power system is casting a shadow over its renewable energy goals.

Drill, Biden, drill
An $8 billion oil and gas project in the Arctic sits on a knife’s edge, as the Biden administration weighs whether to approve it despite fierce environmental opposition, write Heather Richards and Niina H. Farah.

The government’s final review of the project embraced a constricted version that would still allow drilling of more than 200 wells, but White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre insisted that “no decision has been made on this.”

Kerry’s carbon offset gambit
Climate envoy John Kerry made a bet last year that companies would pony up billions of dollars for carbon credits that carry the State Department’s watermark, writes Jean Chemnick.

But the program assumes companies will buy carbon credits that could cost far more than what’s already available on the market.

Oil price cap
EU countries failed to strike a deal on a price cap for Russian oil products, and the deadline for settling one is just days away, writes Charlie Cooper.

The European Commission is pushing for a price cap of $100 per barrel on products like diesel, but Poland and the three Baltic countries have pushed for lower caps.

Oil ban: The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors unanimously passed an ordinance to ban new oil wells and phase out drilling over the next 20 years.

Stove wars: Cleaner, healthier gas burners were developed decades ago. Why aren’t they available?

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A new study estimates the United States will need more than 1,000 big charging plazas, at a cost of up to $1.3 billion, to stand up a basic charging network on interstate highways.

After months of behind-the-scenes negotiations, California has an answer for the six other Western states sharing the Colorado River: Get lost.

Dozens of environmental groups are pressing General Motors Corp. and other truck makers to leave an industry coalition that has opposed federal regulation of truck emissions.

That’s it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.





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