Basketball

Why Chris Paul could fit superbly with Thunder (and where he could end up)


After Chris Paul was dealt to Oklahoma City in the blockbuster Russell Westbrook trade, it seemed like a no-brainer that he’d be re-routed to another team. But the combination of Paul’s massive salary and the timing of the deal -– 11 days into the offseason -– meant that there were limited suitors for the future Hall of Fame point guard. Too many teams used their cap space on free agents and sign-and-trades, and none of those players can be dealt until Dec. 15.

But now that Paul and the Thunder are stuck with each other, it’s not crazy to think the Thunder might be decent this season. The Western Conference got extremely tough, and OKC lost three of its starters, but FiveTirtyEight projects OKC to go 41-41, two games shy of the playoffs. (That website is never wrong, except for certain presidential elections.) And if the Thunder is competitive, could it actually hold onto Paul? It’s not like OKC needs more draft picks.

Paul has a warm history with Oklahoma City, winning Rookie of the Year while playing there in 2006 with the hurricane-displaced New Orleans Hornets. He joins a Thunder team that was 17th in offensive rating, despite the presence of All-Stars Westbrook and Paul George. Perhaps that was because the remaining players stood around a lot watching the stars work with the ball –Paul is much more inclined to spread it around. He has an excellent offensive weapon in Danilo Gallinari, who shot a white-hot 43% from three-point range last year. After the Tobias Harris trade, Gallinari delivered a 65% true shooting percentage as the Clippers’ main scorer. That will help stretch the floor, though not as much as simply losing Westbrook and his 29% three-point shooting will.  

Center Steven Adams figures to have a bounce-back season. After being in trade rumors for months, forced to yield rebounds to Westbrook for years, and watching lookalike Jason Momoa become a movie star, the big Kiwi truly has something to prove. And he has the best pick-and-roll partner he’s ever played with, as defenses actually respect Paul’s jumper, unlike Westbrook’s. You can see how much Paul’s absence hurt DeAndre Jordan, whose field goal percentage dropped 70 points when Paul went from the Clippers to Houston. Adams might not be the pick-and-roll finisher that Jordan was, but in fairness, neither is Jordan these days. Plus, they’ll have a chance to work on their chemistry off the court, as Adams is easily the best candidate to take over as CP3’s new State Farm sidekick.

On the defensive end, OKC has lost one of the league’s best defenders in George, but they have a lot of young, long defenders in Terrance Ferguson, Hamidou Diallo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Ferguson mostly takes spot-up threes, but he’s reliable, nailing over 50% of his corner threes and 36.6% overall. SGA displayed a sweet shooting stroke his rookie year, while slam-dunk champ Diallo unsurprisingly takes most of his shots at the rim. With Paul replacing the occasionally disinterested Westbrook on defense, the Thunder will be tougher in the backcourt. In the front court, Adams may have to cover for Gallinari, aka Il Tornella.

What’s going to hurt OKC is its depth. If a point guard gets hurt, the Thunder has insurance, with Paul, Dennis Schroder and SGA all having point guard experience. If a forward gets hurt, OKC might be screwed -– and it’s not all that unlikely. Gallinari has averaged almost exactly 50 games a year in his 11 seasons, playing 68 last year. The Thunder could really use a rehabilitated Andre Roberson, but he’s missed a season and a half, and can’t be counted on for big minutes. However, he’s still only 27, and the last time he played a full season, he made the All-Defensive team.  

So the Thunder could definitely compete for a low playoff seed, but one slump or a sustained injury could turn them into sellers. Gallinari and his expiring deal would be tempting to half the teams in the league, but it’s a little harder to find a fit for Paul, whose refusal to waive his $44M player option for 2021-22 reportedly derailed a potential trade to Miami. The Heat still seem like the ideal landing spot if Paul gets moved. It’s a playoff contender in the top-heavy, bottom-light Eastern Conference, Jimmy Butler has shown he can sublimate his game to accommodate other stars, and the Miami waterfront has access to a plethora of banana boats. Plus, Goran Dragic’s expiring deal is ideal trade ballast, and Butler and Paul enjoy yelling at their younger teammates.

Where else could he go? The Pistons could reunite Paul with Blake Griffin to form Lob Motor City in Detroit, replacing DeAndre with Andre D. The deal would make Detroit an expensive squad that still isn’t really a contender, but it would be the most exciting Detroit basketball since they traded Chauncey Billups, with the bonus that Reggie Jackson would have to return to the Thunder franchise he hated. Billy Crystal might even fly up to see his old pals.

Orlando is an intriguing option. Its current point guard options are D.J. Augustin, Markelle Fultz and his mysterious shoulder, and Michael Carter-Williams. The DeVos family might balk at taking on all of Paul’s deal, but he’d make the Magic a dangerous dark horse in the East. 

The long-shot option is Dallas, where the Mavericks could dump shorter-term bad contracts like Courtney Lee and Tim Hardaway Jr. to take on the titanic Paul deal. Mark Cuban loves stars, and as Deron Williams, Raymond Felton and Devin Harris (who they acquired three separate times) can attest, he also loves old, washed-up point guards. Best of all, Paul would get a chance at revenge on the in-state rival Rockets and show if James Harden is a bigger playoff choker than him.

But if Paul is stuck in Oklahoma City, it’s not the worst outcome. It’s an intriguing young team, a city that will adore him. OKC has so many future picks that it might swap some for players now, rather than waiting for the 2026 draftees who are currently in sixth grade. No matter what, Paul is unlikely to end up on a true contender this season. He has never made the NBA Finals, but taking this Thunder team to the playoffs might be a more impressive accomplishment.





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