Transportation

Why Are L.A.’s Transit Numbers Dropping?


Transit ridership in Los Angeles is down, and the numbers continue to drop, decreasing by double digits between November 2018 and November 2019. While some of the drop may be attributable to construction-related shutdowns of certain transit lines and relatively inexpensive ride-sharing options, there could be a more counterintuitive contributing factor—the rise of transit-orientated developments (TODs) throughout Los Angeles during the past ten years.

The definition of a TOD is fairly self-explanatory. A TOD is typically a “mixed-use” (residential/retail/leisure) development built within a very short distance—or literally on top of—a public transportation stop. This is most often a transit line, although TODs can be built around bus stops, like in the City of El Monte at the end of the Silver Line. In the United States, a half-mile radius from a transit station or stop is the standard distance for a development to be considered a TOD.

With that being said, if developments have been built in the past decade directly on top of or within a half-mile of a transit stop in LA, how could a densely-built development possibly contribute to a drop in transit ridership rather than an increase? The explanation is quite simple, and it encapsulates one of the major current pain points in Los Angeles (and all of California)—lack of affordable housing

As Tracy Jeanne Rosenthal noted in a Los Angeles Times op-ed last year, most L.A. transit riders tend to be in the  lower-income brackets. Juxtapose that against the cost of renting a unit in a recently constructed TOD and the answer becomes much more clear. Housing units within TODs tend to be expensive because, among other reasons, they are very costly to build. Also, rents in areas surrounding TODs also increase, which can drive out traditional transit riders and force them to use other means to commute.

In her op-ed, Rosenthal noted that the Vermont, a 464-unit building constructed in Koreatown in 2013, is in a prime transit location—close to the Purple Line subway, the No. 720 bus, and the Red Line subway. However, the Vermont’s least expensive apartment costs $2,550 per month, according to Rosenthal’s article. To put that in perspective, the average Los Angeles tenant cannot afford to pay half that monthly rent.

So how can we reverse the transit ridership trend in Los Angeles? Perhaps when California’s Assembly Bill 5 (AB5) takes effect January 1, 2020—assuming ride-hailing companies comply with the changes to independent contractor treatment throughout California—the costs of ride-sharing will increase to the point where riding public transit makes greater economic sense. Expanding and better utilizing incentives (such as low-cost loans, grants, and tax credits) to ensure TODs have the maximum number of affordable housing units can be part of the answer to the affordability of TODs, similar to the Retirement Housing Foundation’s The Paseo at Californian and Crenshaw Gardens.

Lawmakers have introduced additional legislation to provide density bonuses for TODs that would restrict parking and other zoning requirements imposed by local governments. If you’re familiar with local government in California, needless to say, there has been fierce opposition to such legislation. Within California’s local government, the words “Local Control” are spiritually tattooed across the hearts of local officials. Any attempt at restricting this control will likely result in verbal fisticuffs. This is one reason why California Senate Bill 50—the controversial legislation rewriting zoning laws to eliminate single-family housing within a quarter to half-mile of certain transit stops and forcing local governments to allow taller apartment buildings and other multi-family developments near transit and job centers—has been delayed until 2020 and may face ballot measures in November 2020.

Finally, one elephant in the room is micro-mobility or “microbility.” Would public transit ridership see a bump if safer public microbility options, such as scooters and bikes, were available statewide with designated lanes? Perhaps this could spur residents who live beyond the half-mile TOD radius to increase their public transit use.

2020 could be a pivotal year for transit in Los Angeles and California. Hopefully, by the end of 2020, the Crenshaw Line will be open, and this will further link the county, transit-wise. At that point, the infrastructure elements needed to increase ridership should be in place. Hopefully, more Angelinos will see the benefits of riding public transportation, whether they live near a transit stop or elsewhere.



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