Unprecedented bushfires have given the Australian Open a sobering backdrop. Practice schedules and qualifying matches have been affected by the smoke that has blanketed Melbourne. Once the skies clear, though, there is much to look forward to. Novak Djokovic and Naomi Osaka are the defending champions, but as Djokovic himself noted, there are no clear favourites. The season-opening Major can rarely be seen in isolation, however, for the tremors caused often extend deep. Here are eight plotlines that can define 2020:
Federer 20 vs. Nadal 19
Towards the end of 2016, when Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, battered and bruised, shut their seasons down ahead of time, the battle for the most Grand Slam titles was the last thing on their minds. Federer had fallen outside the top-10, Nadal was barely clinging on. Djokovic, at his peak, had clinched six of the 10 previous Majors to swell his tally to 12. During the same period, Federer (17) and Nadal (14) hadn’t won even one. In the off-season, when Federer joined Nadal for the opening of the latter’s academy in Mallorca, the two were said to have joked about their futures. Since then, the two have secured eight of the 12 Slams to set up a tantalising endgame to their storied rivalry. It is a race the protagonists attest to being least interested in. The fans, however, have different ideas.
Will the dominance of the Big Three continue?
Never before in tennis history have three men dominated an era the way Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have. The Big Three have won a whopping 51 of the last 59 Grand Slams, dating back to the 2005 French Open. Since the start of 2004, they have cornered two-thirds of all ATP Masters 1000s (96 of 144). In the last three years, there has been no let-up, with the trio sweeping all 12 Majors. It is, in fact, the second-longest Big Three streak, after the 18 in a row from the 2005 French Open to the 2009 Wimbledon. Stan Wawrinka was the last non-Big Three champion (2016 US Open). Will there be another this year?
Thiem, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Medvedev — the Next Gen race to break through first
The men’s tour is yet to witness a Major champion born in the 1990s, while the women’s welcomed one born in the 2000s ? Bianca Andreescu (2019 US Open). But the signs are that 2020 may well herald a Next Gen winner. Dominic Thiem is coming off a career-best season (five trophies, including three on hard-courts). The Austrian beat Federer to win Indian Wells, pinched a set off Nadal in the Roland Garros final and lost an ultra-tight title-decider to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the ATP Finals. It was Tsitsipas’ biggest triumph to date, but a ringing endorsement of his prodigious talent lay in the fact that he beat every Big Three member last season. Alexander Zverev has flattered to deceive since his 2018 Finals victory, but remains formidable. Daniil Medvedev, who came of age last fall, winning the Cincinnati and Shanghai Masters and finishing runner-up at the US Open, has the game to unsettle the best.
The Murray question
This time last year, a teary-eyed Andy Murray was preparing to play what he sensed could be his last match. His repaired hip had given way, and though he hadn’t officially called it quits, the overzealous media and the Australian Open retired him. Orchestrated tributes from even Federer and Nadal followed. Since then, however, Murray has had a second hip operation, finished rehab and won an ATP 250 tournament. The Brit even returned to the Davis Cup squad before pelvic trouble curtailed his involvement. He will not play the Australian Open, but his comeback from the brink, aided by his burning ambition, suggests his story isn’t over.
Serena’s quest for No. 24
Serena Williams has reached the final in four of the last six Slams. But she has lost all four, without so much as winning a set. It’s something the American has never experienced before; she lost just four of her first 25 Major finals. The underlying theme, ever since the 38-year-old returned to the sport after giving birth to her daughter, has been the quest for a record-equalling 24th crown. At Melbourne, the site of her last Slam victory in 2017, she seems primed for her best shot yet. In Auckland last week, she captured her first trophy after becoming a mother. It was crucial, for, after losing the Wimbledon final to Simona Halep, she had stressed on the need to somehow “win a final”. Now that she has, can she go all the way at a Major?
Will the WTA settle down?
Since Serena’s triumph at the 2017 Australian Open, the women’s game has seen seven first-time Slam winners. The perpetual flux has both admirers and critics. The many different winners, with an eclectic mix of playing styles, point to the field’s competitiveness, many claim. According to the other side, the absence of a clearly defined pecking order suggests decreased quality. But in 2019, the Tour showed signs of settling down, with two repeat champions in Naomi Osaka and Halep. Petra Kvitova and Garbine Muguruza, both former Major champions, have started well, while Ashleigh Barty, who clinched her maiden crown in Paris, is here to stay. Such is the depth that there is always the possibility of a first-time winner (read Karolina Pliskova). But 2020 could well be the year that novelty wears thin.
The brewing youth movement
Even as the jostling at the top of the women’s game continues unabated, a Next Gen is slowly taking shape, with players such as Andreescu, Amanda Anisimova, Coco Gauff and Sofia Kenin leading the way. Andreescu may have pulled out of Melbourne, but the manner of her victory in New York was stunning. Anisimova was the youngest player born in the 2000s to reach the semifinals of a Grand Slam (French Open 2019). The 15-year-old Gauff’s irresistible run to the fourth round at Wimbledon, which included a victory in her first Major main-draw appearance over the legendary Venus Williams, was one of the season’s defining moments. Kenin was voted the WTA’s Most Improved Player in 2019, rising more than 40 places to peak at No. 12. She won three titles and famously defeated Serena at Roland Garros.
The Indian angle
As ever, the veteran doubles specialists are making headlines in an Olympic year: former No. 1 Sania Mirza has returned after a break following childbirth in rousing fashion at Hobart, even as Leander Paes prepares to bid adieu after close to three glittering decades at the top. Sania will partner Rohan Bopanna at the Australian Open, offering a sneak peek into what might follow at Tokyo 2020. In singles, both Prajnesh Gunneswaran, who played the main draw at all four Slams in 2019, and Sumit Nagal, who took a set off Federer at the US Open, haven’t qualified at Melbourne. For Prajnesh, who reached a career-high 75 last year, the upcoming months will be a test of his ability to grind his way back while Nagal will look to break into the top-100 soon.
