Basketball

Warriors vs. Mavericks: Western Conference finals Game 1 expert picks, odds


Both of the top two seeds are out in the Western Conference. Golden State and Dallas won without home-court advantage in the second round. Now they face off in the Western Conference finals.

Golden State is no stranger to this spot, just three years removed from making five straight NBA Finals and winning three. On the flip side, Dallas’ first-round series win against Utah was the Mavericks’ first playoff series victory since they won the 2011 NBA title.

Wednesday

Game 1: Mavericks at Warriors, 9 p.m. (ET). TV: TNT

During the NBA playoffs, The Athletic’s writers will make their straight-up picks. You’ll find picks, coverage and the latest odds here. Our in-depth NBA coverage is linked below the picks. For live NBA odds from BetMGM, click here.

Team Spread Total Moneyline

+180

-4.5

214.5

-225

Series odds: Warriors -225, Mavericks +185

The Warriors trace their lineage back to 1946. They’re a history-rich team that lined up Wilt Chamberlain and Rick Barry and Chris Mullin in all their short-shorts and pointy elbows glory. But when you think of the Warriors as a concept now, the idea of what it means to be Golden State, that sense extends back almost exactly 15 years.

In 2007, Don Nelson, the former Warriors coach who became the Mavericks coach, boomeranged again to bring Nellie Ball back to the Bay and sneaked his team into the playoffs as a No. 8 seed. Even casual NBA stans remember well what happened next. Before the stateside hoops world could figure out how to pronounce Šarūnas Jasikevičius, Baron Davis and his wobbly knees pushed the Warriors to a shocking upset of the Mavericks and MVP Dirk Nowitzki. Even on TV, the arena in Oakland was deafening during the playoff run. The Warriors were back on the map.

Since then, the Warriors have won three championships, birthing a new age of dominance in their city and gaining enough momentum to build a new billion-dollar arena.

But now the Warriors are now old hats. And the Mavericks team they will face in the Western Conference finals, the one led by Luka Dončić, is the upstart chasing an upset.

“It’s like, what the hell? They’re really that young?” Golden State’s Stephen Curry said Tuesday. “You’re thinking about what you were doing at that age, trying to get into this scene, playing playoff basketball.”

Other than the idea that NBA history is a closed loop, there is not much to draw on from that 2007 Warriors upset, the first time an eight seed took down a No. 1 in a seven-game series. But it is a solid reminder that anything can happen in the playoffs.

And would it really be all that shocking if the Mavericks wiggled into an upset? Dončić will be the best player on the floor. Spencer Dinwiddie may be the biggest X-factor. They can ball.

The Warriors open Game 1 as significant betting favorites, which shouldn’t be a surprise. Curry will be the smartest player on the floor, Draymond Green the best defender.

“I’m not trying to claim the ‘old guy’ tag,” Curry said. “We’re as hungry as they are to get it done.”

Writer Straight up pick

Andrew Schlecht

Richard Deitsch

Or Moyal

Dave DuFour

James Edwards III

Sam Vecenie

Cole Huff


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(Photo of Luka Dončić: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)





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