Warriors at Mavericks: Odds, expert picks for Western Conference finals Game 3

For most of Game 2 in the Western Conference finals, the Dallas Mavericks were in control. Then, Golden State put together some vintage Warriors runs to come back from 19 points down and take a 2-0 series lead.

Golden State doesn’t quite feel like the juggernaut dynasty-level team of a few years ago, but the Warriors have veteran stars leading the way and a deep group of role players capable of stepping up. The Warriors have become the significant betting favorite to win the NBA title at -105 on BetMGM.

Meanwhile, Dallas has to regroup at home after likely feeling like Game 2 was going to be a huge win. The Mavericks were down 2-0 to Phoenix as well and came back to win that series in seven games. Can they pull that feat off again?

Saturday

Game 3: Warriors at Mavericks, 9 p.m. (ET). TV: TNT

During the NBA playoffs, The Athletic’s writers will make their straight-up picks. You’ll find picks, coverage and the latest odds here. Our in-depth NBA coverage is linked below the picks. For live NBA odds from BetMGM, click here.

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
			+115
	-2.5	219.5	-140

Series odds: Warriors -800, Mavericks +550

The Dallas Mavericks couldn’t have been feeling good as they tried to go to sleep on Friday night. Game 2 could have, and probably should have, been a victory.

Luka Dončić was out-of-this-world good with 42 points on 23 shots to go with eight assists and five rebounds. The Mavericks were 15-for-27 from 3-point range in the first half. They led throughout the half with a lead as big as 19, including a 17-point lead early in the third quarter. Things were going so well for Dallas that Davis Bertans even made a 2-pointer, his first of the playoffs.

Steve Kerr said on the TNT broadcast that the Warriors just needed to stay composed. If Dallas continued to shoot like that he’d pat them on the back. Kerr’s words proved to be prescient. Dallas went through a college basketball-esque scoring drought in the third quarter, shooting 2-for-13 on 3-pointers and 5-for-19 overall.

Things went so well for Golden State in the second half that with Draymond Green in foul trouble, Kevon Looney was more effective than Green. Looney had 11 points in a third quarter that ended with the Warriors within two.

As the series shifts to Dallas, the mental side of the series becomes crucial. Will Dallas be deflated after letting a game slip away? Will the Mavs be further motivated from what was at the least an encouraging performance?

Dallas is a small favorite at home and the total has crept up to its highest number of the series. Dallas’ only home loss of the playoffs was Game 1 of the first round against Utah when Dončić didn’t play. It looks like both games in Dallas will be must-wins for the Mavs. Get your voices ready, Dallas.