WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture, in its May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, made mostly minor changes from April in its 2020-21 US sugar supply-and-demand forecasts, lowering the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 14.7% from 15.1% last month.
Domestic production in 2020-21 was forecast at a record 9,299,000 tons, down 45,000 tons from April as a 70,000-ton decline in cane sugar production, forecast at 4,181,000 tons, more than offset a 25,000-ton increase in beet sugar, forecast at 5,118,000 tons.
Changes from April in import forecasts mostly were offsetting, with total imports seen at 3,154,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last month. Tariff-rate quota imports were forecast at 1,673,000 tons, down 48,000 tons from April, with imports from Mexico at 981,000 tons, up 50,000 tons, reflecting the increase in Mexico’s “other” sugar export limit announced in April. Other program imports were unchanged at 300,000 tons, with high-tier imports also unchanged at 200,000 tons.
There were no changes from April in total sugar use, forecast at 12,265,000 tons, including exports at 35,000 tons, other at 105,000 tons and deliveries for food at 12,125,000 tons.
Ending stocks in 2020-21 were forecast at 1,805,000 tons, down 43,000 tons from the April forecast and down 187,000 tons, or 12%, from 2019-20.
In its initial forecasts for the 2021-22 marketing year, which begins Oct. 1, the USDA forecast domestic sugar production at a record 9,310,000 tons, up 11,000 tons from the current year, including beet sugar at 5,225,000 tons, up 107,000 tons, or 2.1%, and the second highest on record after 2017-18, and cane sugar at 4,085,000 tons, down 96,000 tons, or 2.3%, but still the third highest on record.
Total imports were forecast at 2,652,000 tons, including TRQ imports at 1,387,000 tons, the minimum required under World Trade Organization commitments. Imports from Mexico were forecast at 964,775 tons, with other program imports at 250,000 tons and high-tier imports at 50,000 tons.
Sugar use forecasts for 2021-22 all were unchanged from 2020-21.
Ending stocks were forecast at 1,502,000 tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 12.25%, about the same as the initial ratio in recent years.
For Mexico, the USDA forecast 2020-21 sugar production at 5,825,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 75,000 tonnes from April. Domestic use was forecast at 4,378,000 tonnes, down 67,000 tonnes, and exports were forecast at 1,499,000 tonnes, up 7,000 tonnes. Ending stocks were forecast at 910,000 tonnes in 2020-21, down 16,000 tonnes from April.
Mexico’s initial 2021-22 sugar production was forecast at 5,809,000 tonnes, imports at 85,000 tonnes, exports at 1,524,000 tonnes and domestic use at 4,370,000 tonnes. Ending stocks were forecast at 910,000 tonnes, unchanged from the current year. Ending stocks for both years are equal to 2.5 months of forecast domestic use.
