Food

USDA boosts 2021-22 sugar supply, use



WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Sept. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report made numerous adjustments to both 2020-21 and 2021-22 sugar supply and use forecasts, with the 2021-22 ending stocks-to-use ratio set at 13.5%.

For the current 2020-21 marketing year, the USDA lowered domestic beet sugar production by 32,000 tons, raw value, to 5,031,000 tons, and left cane sugar production unchanged at 4,171,000 tons. Total imports were estimated at 3,169,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from August based on tariff-rate quota imports at 1,693,000 tons, down 96,000 tons, other program imports at 315,000 tons, up 70,000 tons, high-tier imports at 180,000 tons, unchanged, and imports from Mexico at 981,000 tons, up 18,000 tons. Total supply was estimated at 13,989,000 tons, down 39,000 tons from August.

Deliveries for food use in 2020-21 were forecast at 12,200,000 tons, up 75,000 tons from August, with exports at 52,000 tons, up 7,000 tons.

Ending stocks for the current year were forecast at 1,632,000 tons, down 121,000 tons from August, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 13.2%, down from 14.3% in August.

For 2021-22, which begins Oct. 1, beginning stocks were lowered by 121,000 tons, reflecting the change in 2020-21 ending stocks.

Beet sugar production was forecast at 5,202,000 tons, up 124,000 tons from August, which many in the trade anticipated. Cane sugar production was forecast at 3,960,000 tons, down 10,000 tons due to a like decrease for Florida. The USDA noted that Louisiana production was unchanged as impact from Hurricane Ida still was being evaluated.

Imports in 2021-22 were projected at 3,212,000 tons, up 76,000 tons from August. Tariff-rate quota imports were forecast at 1,803,000 tons, up 416,000 tons due largely to the announcement of TRQ imports at the World Trade Organization minimum, which had not yet been reflected in the August report. Other program imports were unchanged at 250,000 tons. Imports from Mexico were forecast at 1,084,000 tons, down 365,000 tons from August as the Mexican limit is adjusted to meet the 13.5% ending stocks-to-use ratio in September. High-tier imports were forecast at 75,000 tons, up 25,000 tons from August. Total supply in 2021-22 was projected at 14,006,000 tons, up 69,000 tons from August.

Deliveries for food in 2021-22 were forecast at 12,200,000 tons, carrying over the 75,000-ton increase from 2020-21. Total use was forecast at 12,340,000 tons, up 75,000 tons from August.

Ending stocks for next year were forecast at 1,666,000 tons, down 6,000 tons from August, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 13.5%.

The USDA also raised 2019-20 high-tier imports by 22,379 tons, raw value, to 205,000 tons and raised deliveries for food by the same amount, to 12,246,183 tons, leaving ending stocks at 1,618,000 tons and the stocks-to-use ratio at 13% both unchanged from August. The adjustment reflected revisions made by the US Bureau of Census for July 2020 through May 2021.



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