US wheat carryover forecast lowest since 2014

KANSAS CITY — The US Department of Agriculture in its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued Sept. 10 lowered its forecast for the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2022, to 615 million bus, down 12 million from the August outlook and down 229 million bus, or 27%, from 844 million bus in 2021. It would be the smallest US wheat carryover since 590 million bus in 2014.   

The September WASDE and Crop Production reports contained no adjustments in 2021 all-wheat production or production by wheat class, as those estimates will be revisited in the Small Grains Summary 2021 that will be issued on Sept. 30. The all-wheat production estimate for 2021 remained 1,697 million bus, down 129 million bus, or 7%, from 1,826 million bus in 2020.

The USDA lowered its forecast for 2021-22 wheat imports to 135 million bus, down 10 million from the August projection but up 35 million bus from 2020-21. The USDA said the lower import forecast for 2021-22 reflected the import pace to date.

The lower import forecast resulted in a 10-million-bu reduction in the forecast for the 2021-22 wheat supply to 2,676 million bus, down 278 million bus, or 9%, from 2,954 million bus. It would be the smallest US wheat supply since 2,620 million bus in 2007-08.

On the demand side of the balance sheet, the USDA raised its forecast for food use of wheat to 964 million bus, up 2 million from the August projection and up 3 million bus from 961 million in 2020-21. It would be nearly on par with the current record food use of wheat at 964.1 million bus in 2017-28. Seed use of wheat in 2021-22 was projected unchanged from August at 62 million bus and would be up 1 million bus from 2020-21.

The USDA’s forecast for 2021-22 wheat exports was unchanged at 875 million bus, down 117 million bus, or 12%, from 992 million bus in 2020-21. As forecast, US wheat exports in the current marketing year would be the lowest since 778 million bus in 2015-16.

Total wheat disappearance in 2021-22 was projected at 2,061 million bus, up 2 million from the August forecast but down 49 million bus, or 2%, from 2,110 million bus in 2020-21.

Adjustments from August for wheat supply and demand by class were minor. The carryover for hard red winter wheat was forecast at 347 million bus, up 1 million from August but down 79 million bus, or 19%, from 426 million bus in 2021. The adjustment reflected a 5-million-bu cut in forecast 2021-22 exports to 355 million bus, which more than offset a 4-million-bu increase in projected domestic use to 506 million bus.

The carryover of hard red spring wheat was projected at 111 million bus, down 5 million from the August projection and down 124 million bus, or 53%, from 235 million bus in 2021. The lower carryover projection reflected a 5-million-bu decrease in forecast 2021-22 imports to 65 million bus.

The soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 99 million bus, down 5 million bus from August but up 14 million bus from 85 million in 2021. The adjustment from August was due to a 5-million-bu increase in forecast exports in 2021-22 to 120 million bus.

The 2022 carryover forecast for white wheat was unchanged at 40 million bus.

The durum carryover on June 1, 2022, was projected at 18 million bus, down 3 million from the August outlook and down 10 million bus from 2021. The reduction from the August projection resulted from a 5-million-bu cut in 2021-22 imports to 54 million bus, which more than offset a 2-million-bu reduction in forecast 2021-22 domestic durum usage to 85 million bus.


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