For those teams that have nothing left to look forward to this season (and even one that does), the future is now. The official order for top 18 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft is set, with Houston playing its way out of the No. 1 spot — to Chicago’s benefit — on the regular season’s final Sunday.
Which GMs will be entering the spring with a fully loaded box of draft capital? Who needs a bit more? And which front offices look to be in dire need for an influx of ’23 picks?
A look at the order as it stands now and what it all means for the teams that landed at 1 through 18:
(Notes: Projected compensatory picks are according to OvertheCap.com’s chart; complete draft order is according to Tankathon; all picks currently or initially owned by playoff teams are subject to change based on postseason outcomes.)
Current picks: 1, 56 (via BAL), 65, 103, 134 (via BAL), 136, 149 (via NE), 220
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient (sort of)
The Bears should be open for business at No. 1. Justin Fields’ progress means that they’re not in need of a quarterback (although, maybe they could be enticed) and their second-round pick will be 20-plus spot lower than it could’ve been — Chicago dealt its own Round 2 slot (No. 33 overall) to Pittsburgh for Chase Claypool; it added a second and fifth from Baltimore for Roquan Smith.
The Bears’ total number of picks (eight) is solid. Even if Chicago has to (or wants to) stick and draft Jalen Carter at No. 1 overall, that’s clearly going to help the club.
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Jahns: No. 1 pick gives GM Ryan Poles a special opportunity to change the Bears forever
Current picks: 2, 12 (via CLE), 34, 66, 74 (via CLE), 104, 137, 187 (via NO), 199 (via NYG), 204 (via MIN), 205 (via SF), 239 (via SEA)
Draft capital outlook: Loaded
To be frank, the amount of picks Houston has to work with is absurd. The Texans should be able to do just about anything they want in this draft, a list that might include trying to trade up to No. 1 for a QB. Houston owned that top spot for much of the season, only to win two of its last three before firing head coach Lovie Smith.
We’ll see what direction the franchise ultimately decides to go, but this should be a much different club in 2024. The front office has a chance for big gains.
Current picks: 3, 35, 67, 97 (projected comp pick), 105, 168 (projected comp pick), 179, 214 (projected comp pick)
Draft capital outlook: Loaded
Another team with plenty of “we’ll see” on the horizon, in terms of organizational structure and general leadership. There will be a lot to work with, though, for whoever winds up running the show. The Cardinals already are projected to be sitting on five picks within the top 105, and they probably could add quite a bit to their stash by flipping No. 3 to a QB-needy team.
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Cardinals fire HC Kingsbury; GM Keim steps away
Current picks: 4, 36, 80 (via WAS), 106, 139, 223, 238 (via TB)
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
Nobody knows what’s next for the Colts, who finished out the season 1-7 under interim coach Jeff Saturday. However, no matter who’s running the show, Indianapolis might be the most quarterback-desperate team on the board. The Colts have seven picks, which could be enough to go get Bryce Young or another QB, especially if packaged with some 2024 capital. They’re not loaded, but they can make a splash if they want.
“It’s dangerous when an owner tries to impose his will,” Jim Irsay once told me.
But something’s changed. The result: fading trust, dysfunction, a franchise losing its way.
From months of convos w/ those in the building, inside the Colts’ chaotic season:https://t.co/j0Xk4hpnvI
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) January 6, 2023
Current picks: 5 (via DEN), 20, 38 (via DEN), 54, 85, 122, 152 (via PIT), 157, 197
Draft capital outlook: Loaded
The Seahawks are going to the playoffs and will enter the draft with the second-best haul of total draft capital, right behind Houston. This was a surprising club with a young core in 2022. The Seahawks are in excellent position to add to that foundation in April, especially if they’re buying Geno Smith’s resurgence as more than a one-year flash.
Current picks: 6 (via LAR), 18, 49, 60 (via MIN), 82, 153, 182 (via DEN), 193
Draft capital outlook: Loaded
The Rams were unable to help the Lions into the playoffs, but Los Angeles’ mess of a season did give Detroit a top-six pick to add to its young and intriguing core. Just like the Seahawks, Detroit’s draft outlook is terrific, so GM Brad Holmes could do just about anything he wants. And, also like the Seahawks, Detroit — thanks to Jared Goff — might be much more set at quarterback than it seemed a few months ago.
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Lions show in win over Packers: Don’t underestimate Detroit in 2023
Current picks: 7, 39, 71, 109, 142, 145 (via ATL), 174 (projected comp pick), 202 (via DAL), 219 (projected comp pick), 222 (via ARI), 233 (via NE)
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
The Raiders are another team one would figure will be in the QB market. Even more so than the Colts, they have everything they need to move up as high as they want in this draft. Would they consider leapfrogging Houston for the No. 1 pick and Young (or C.J. Stroud or Will Levis)? Or would the Raiders be better off to wait and add talent as it comes?
Current picks: 8, 45, 76, 110 (via TEN), 113, 155 (via JAX), 226 (via LV), 249 (via BUF)
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
The Falcons have holes to fill this offseason, to be sure. The record also tells no lies: Atlanta was bad but not outwardly terrible this season, although a modest two-game win streak in Weeks 17 and 18 made things look a little better than they were. None of that does much for anybody, but this type of draft haul — used properly — could go a long way for the Falcons. Pick 110, a fourth-rounder, is part of the return on Atlanta’s Julio Jones-to-Tennessee trade.
Current picks: 9, 40, 61 (via SF), 93 (via SF), 114, 131 (via SF), 146
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
The Panthers currently don’t own a pick over the draft’s final two and a half rounds, but this is a sneaky good haul: four selections in the top 100, including three within the first 61 spots. Two of those early-round picks (plus the Panthers’ extra fourth-rounder, No. 131) came over in the Christian McCaffrey deal.
Carolina is in great shape to add three to four starters to a group that played solid football down the stretch. Better days could be ahead, so long as the coaching hire lands.
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Person: Panthers’ David Tepper can’t screw this up — Steve Wilks should get the job
Current picks: 10 (via NO), 32, 64, 96, 221 (via HOU), 251
Draft capital outlook: Loaded
Not fair. Really not fair, at all. The Eagles finished the regular season tied with Kansas City for the NFL’s best record, and they don’t necessarily appear to need anything at the moment. This, ladies and gentlemen, is how you stay good.
Of note, though: While the Eagles did secure what turned out to be a top-10 pick via the Saints, they traded away their own fourth-, fifth- and sixth-round spots for Robert Quinn, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Josiah Scott, respectively.
Current picks: 11, 42, 73, 148, 185 (via ATL), 230
Draft capital outlook: In need
There isn’t quite enough here for the Titans to be aggressive moving up the board, unless they’re willing to package other assets (like future draft picks). That said, like the Falcons, the Titans don’t have a horrendous roster. They have holes and probably wish they had a few more premium picks with which to fill them.
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Rexrode: Titans complete the collapse, yet somehow still deserve a nod in the end
12. Houston Texans (3-13-1)
Cleveland won four of its final seven games to block Houston from owning two top-10 picks, but the Texans still have plenty to work with this year plus additional first- and fourth-round picks in 2024.
Current picks: 13, 44, 75, 112, 144, 178 (via HOU)
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
It’s hard to say what the Jets are going to do with the quarterback spot. This feels like it could be QB3 territory in this draft, although that’s far from a guarantee — the Jets might have to climb into the top 10 for a shot at Stroud, Levis or even Anthony Richardson. Still, this franchise has drafted well recently and has a lot of young talent. It’s not the worst spot to be.
Woody Johnson greeted #Jets players as they reached the locker room, less exuberant than last time media saw him do that: in Week 4, after beating the Steelers, a lifetime ago.
What happens next is up to him.
On the Jets collapse and the offseason ahead: https://t.co/1wvRmSVKrQ
— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) January 9, 2023
Current picks: 14, 47, 77 (via CAR), 107 (via LAR), 117, 135 (projected comp pick), 183 (via LV), 186 (via CAR), 191, 209 (projected comp pick), 259 (projected comp pick)
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
So, this is a lot of picks. However, five of them are in the sixth round or lower (and No. 135 is the last projected comp pick of Round 4). How valuable is that stockpile? It depends on your situation. This isn’t the New England of old, so more premium picks would be better. In theory, though, this is a lot for Bill Belichick to work with headed into the offseason.
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Buckley: The Patriots exited with dignity but weren’t good enough. That’s the new normal
Current picks: 15, 46, 79, 116, 150, 171 (projected comp pick), 218 (projected comp pick), 234, 237 (via LAR), 240 (via JAX)
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
Aaron Rodgers couldn’t have been more dramatic with his postgame display Sunday night if he’d tried (is that a dare?), so the Packers might be back to the “will they need a new QB or is this just a show?” dance for another offseason. Jordan Love is still around as a potential heir to the job. If it doesn’t need to chase a quarterback, Green Bay’s in solid shape to continue getting younger on defense while fixing its offensive line.
Current picks: 16, 48, 98 (projected comp pick), 118, 151, 192, 215 (projected comp pick), 235
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
Good, not great … which was more or less how Washington’s season went. The Commanders sent their own third-round pick (No. 80) to Indianapolis as part of the Carson Wentz trade, but Brandon Scherff’s exit last offseason sets them up to recoup a Round 3 compensatory choice.
There were encouraging developments this season: Jahan Dotson flashed, Chase Young should still have better days ahead, etc. Washington has enough here to build on, but this is a tough spot for a team still in need of QB help.
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Standig: After perhaps Dan Snyder’s final game, Commanders fans have every reason to look up
Current picks: 17, 33 (via CHI), 50, 81, 120, 236
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
This is light but front-loaded — the aforementioned Claypool trade with Chicago leaves the Steelers with a very valuable pick atop Round 2. It’s all plenty fine for a team like Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin’s group won nine games this year when it really wasn’t supposed to (because that’s what Tomlin does) and is in position to continue replacing aging talent with quality youth. The Steelers could find four starters by Round 3 without blinking.
Kaboly: Steelers coming up short of playoffs might be a blessing in disguise
— Mark Kaboly (@MarkKaboly) January 9, 2023
18. Detroit Lions (9-8)
The Steelers and Lions both fell just short of nabbing a playoff berth, so they’ll pick back-to-back ahead of the teams that are in the postseason. Detroit walked out of Round 1 last year with Aidan Hutchinson (No. 2 overall) and Jameson Williams (No. 12).
The playoff field
The remainder of the draft order will be determined by the postseason results. Teams that lose on wild-card weekend will pick in slots 19-24, based on record and tiebreakers, divisional-round losers at 25-28 and so on. Miami’s first-round draft pick (and 2024 third-rounder) will be forfeited as punishment for what the NFL deemed “impermissible contact” with Tom Brady and Sean Payton. We will update each team’s situation as it’s eliminated from the playoffs.
The remainder of the tentative Round 1 order:
Current picks: 19, 51, 83, 154, 175 (projected comp pick), 180 (via IND), 195, 232 (via NYJ), 254 (projected comp pick)
Draft capital outlook: In need
20. Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
Current picks: 21, 52, 86, 121 (via TB), 123, 184 (via NYJ), 198, 208 (via PHI), 228 (via CAR)
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
Current picks: 53, 78 (via NE), 84, 177 (via CHI), 241
Draft capital outlook: In need
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Dolphins and Mike McDaniel earn playoff berth, validation when it mattered most
Current picks: 23, 55, 87, 101 (projected comp pick via KC), 125, 158, 207 (via KC), 217 (projected comp pick), 242, 243 (via BAL), 256 (projected comp pick)
Draft capital outlook: Loaded
Current picks: 24, 88, 126, 159, 200
Draft capital outlook: In need
Current picks: 25, 57, 89, 127, 160, 201, 244
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
Current picks: 26, 58, 90, 128, 161, 170 (projected comp pick), 176 (projected comp pick), 212 (projected comp pick), 245
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
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NFL Wild Card odds: Spreads and totals for every playoff game
Current picks: 27, 59, 91, 129, 162, 203, 246
Draft capital outlook: In need
Current picks: 28, 92, 119 (via DET), 163, 210 (projected comp pick), 213 (projected comp pick)
Draft capital outlook: In need
Current picks: 29 (via MIA/SF), 68 (via IND), 69, 108, 140, 194 (via PIT), 247 (via MIN)
Draft capital outlook: In need
The Broncos acquired this pick from the Dolphins, as part of a trade package that sent Bradley Chubb to Miami. However, the draft slot initially belonged to the 49ers — they dealt it when moving up to No. 3 in the 2021 draft. So, it’s final landing spot is contingent on how San Francisco performs in the playoffs. It’s also been rumored as a potential trade chip in prospective Broncos-Saints conversations regarding Sean Payton.
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Super Bowl 2023 odds: Chiefs hold slight lead over Bills as favorite
Current picks: 30, 62, 94, 132, 138 (via HOU), 165, 206
Draft capital outlook: Sufficient
Current picks: 31, 63, 95, 124 (via MIA), 133, 166, 196 (via MIA), 227 (via ATL), 250, 252 (projected comp pick), 253 (projected comp pick), 258 (projected comp pick)
Draft capital outlook: Loaded
32. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
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NFL players on returning to games after Damar Hamlin’s collapse
(Photo: Daniel Bartel / USA Today)
