Trouble With Predicting Future Of Transportation Is That Today Gets In The Way

According to a new report from the U.K. government innovations agency Innovate UK there will soon be a “significant” reduction in demand for bus travel partly because, within the next nine years, we will witness individualized passenger services in “revolutionary new aircraft.”

Such futuristic air taxis have been the stuff of science fiction since the 1950s, but with advances in avionics, they could be picking you up—perhaps autonomously—as soon as 2030, states Innovate UK’s Transport Vision 2050.

However, such advanced air mobility (AAM) services will have to avoid the 76,000 delivery drones that Innovate UK predicts will also be in the U.K.’s skies by then.

“90% of motorway HGVs will be autonomous by 2050,” also imagines Transport Vision 2050. Peachy. But what about all those truck drivers that today are seen to be vitally important to the smooth running of the U.K. economy? For all of the government’s efforts to woo EU truck drivers to spend the next three months digging us out of a logistics hole at least partly caused by Brexit, why would any young Brits plan to make a career out of trucking when, according to Innovate UK’s report—citing an earlier one from the National Infrastructure Commission—it’s predicted that HGVs soon won’t need drivers, a move that “significantly reduces fixed labour costs.”

Autonomy

According to Innovate UK, by 2050, we shall be moving by “seamless, safe, net-zero, connected, cost-effective, accessible and reliable means.” The agency’s report states that air and urban transport, rail freight, and ferries to and from U.K. islands will be fully autonomous by 2050.

There will be “near 100% reliability” of transport services and, despite a doubling in road traffic, “systems” will ensure there will be zero road-related deaths.

Road pricing

Transport Vision 2050 was published to little fanfare in early August but contains explosive predictions about the “disincentivisation [of] private car use” including via road pricing.

Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) motoring has been a political hot potato since the government-commissioned Smeed Report of the early 1960s, which recommended road pricing, a report that was quickly shelved for fear of spooking motorists.

Subsequent reports—including the Road Pricing Feasibility Study of 2004, the Eddington study of 2006, and the 2013 strategic roads policy review—have also recommended PAYG motoring but to little avail.

However, says the Innovate UK report, the “push for zero-emission vehicles and modal shift mean alternative tax and subsidy approaches will be needed if overall transport tax revenues are to remain level or increase.”

“This,” adds the report, “may include road pricing or congestion charges.”

Innovate UK believes that road pricing could be introduced by 2040 as, by then, “infra enables PAYG options.”

Feedback loop

A speedier introduction of road pricing could be one of the suggestions that inform future editions of Transport Vision 2050. The agency is soliciting for industry feedback on what the future of transport should look like, but anybody can submit suggestions.

Boosting walking and bicycling by widening sidewalks and increasing the number of protected cycleways could be a key suggestion that colors future editions, says the report’s co-author David Tozer because these modes have “environmental, health and economic positives.”

Future editions of Transport Vision “may result in greater representation of these modes of transport given the expected role they will increasingly play,” Tozer told me via email.

Innovate UK estimates there are 4,000km of “urban cycle routes” in the U.K. but that this will only double to 8,000km by 2050, a target that looks inadequate if the U.K. government wants to hit its target of 50% of journeys in towns and cities being cycled or walked by 2030.

(Innovate UK’s estimate of 4,000km of cycle routes includes many sub-standard cycleways, including shared-use sidewalks. Cycle planning expert Brian Deegan of Urban Movement, an advisor to Greater Manchester Cycling and Walking Commissioner, told me that he estimates the U.K. has about 500km of good or reasonable quality cycle routes protected by kerbs or plastic wands.)

Future is already here

“This report highlights how tech could transform transport in the future,” agrees Sustrans CEO Xavier Brice. (Sustrans is a walking and cycling charity, and the custodian of the National Cycle Network.)

“But,” he adds, “many of the most important solutions for ensuring that how we move around creates happier lives and healthier places are available and affordable right now. Making it easier for people to walk and cycle does not cost much money nor rely on as yet unproven tech, but has huge power to change our lives for the better.”

For Chris Todd, director of the Transport Action Network campaign group, Innovate UK’s vision “could become a nightmare, especially if it is being led by the agenda of big business rather than what’s in the public interest.”

He told me: “Rather than basing future infrastructure needs on existing trends as this vision does, we need to pause and ask what sort of places do we want to live in. Worryingly, this strategy also fails to adequately consider the short to medium changes required, completely ignoring the need for transport emissions to be reduced by 68% by 2030. Instead, it talks of rising traffic levels up to 2030 and beyond, when increasingly, it is acknowledged that we need traffic reduction instead.”

Even though Transport Vision discusses the “disincentivisation” of motoring, arguing that “private car [travel] is a comparatively inefficient means of travel,” it still predicts a 43% rise in car traffic.

“The predicted rise in car traffic will swamp our streets unless radical action is taken now to address this,” stresses Todd.

“Autonomous vehicles could usurp people walking and cycling in urban areas unless priority is given to human-powered travel: designing this into the tech will be critical, or our lives could become severely restricted or regimented in ways we could not imagine at present.”

Big data

Transport Vision 2050 predicts a connected future, where autonomous vehicles are equipped with 7G sensors that communicate to optimize journeys and prevent collisions. Data transmitted between motor vehicles and road infrastructure—called vehicle-to-everything, or V2X—is already operational in some cars, and transport campaigners fear it might become necessary for pedestrians and cyclists to also be equipped with beacons so that the driverless cars of the future spot them when cameras, LIDAR and similar technologies still can’t.

“With the huge push to move over half of urban journeys to walking or cycling this is likely to coincide with more wearable and personal technology which enables travel by foot and pedal to be accessible and efficient,” agrees Tozer.

And, he adds, “it must work with the wider infrastructure so journeys can be seamless, safe, and effective for the individual while not creating concerns around cyber security and a ‘big brother’ society.”

Bus travel

Some public transit champions may balk at Innovate UK’s predictions of a “significant” reduction in bus travel in the years ahead, but for CitySwift CEO Brian O’Rourke, it’s not a done deal.

“[Innovate UK’s] report predicts bus use nationally may decline by 2040 due to a shift towards alternative forms of mobility and shared services [but] the report also highlights that this forecasted decline can be bucked if projected reductions in operational costs are passed on to the customer and bus services can grow in quality, frequency and coverage,” he said.

CitySwift offers a scheduling and planning technology for urban bus networks using numbers to predict passenger demand.

“By harnessing the power of big data and AI, bus operators can make more informed decisions to match vehicle supply with passenger demand and dramatically improve punctuality and reliability, leading to a better onboard experience for passengers, all while significantly reducing operating costs,” said O’Rourke.

“The technology to do this is available today and is already being used by some major bus operators to optimize their networks. So we have good reason to remain optimistic about the future of buses and the key role they will play in the future mobility mix.”

Policy visions

Transport Vision 2050—”based on extensive research including input from over 200 contributors from industry, government and academia,” says Innovate UK—is a transport document produced by an arm of government, but it was not published by the Department for Transport (DfT).

However, the “DfT were consulted and fed in,” said Tozer.

“While DfT were not asked to sign off the Transport Vision, they were sent a final copy in advance of its release to help align communications,” he stressed.

(“It’s their report,” said a DfT spokesperson referring to Innovate UK.)

“One of the aims of Transport Vision is to inform Innovate UK’s future interventions in transport,” Tozer told me.

“We want it to help guide our thinking as much as everyone else’s. Given this, there is the potential for it to significantly influence how people and goods move not just around the U.K. but internationally out to 2050.

“However, while the Vision presents one possible future scenario, it’s a point in time view that will ultimately change. As such, it’s critically important that we revise our scenario as new technologies, policies, and behaviors emerge. This is something which Innovate UK needs industry and government to collaborate with us on and is why we’re actively seeking feedback [on the report.]”

Innovate UK CEO Indro Mukerjee described Transport Vision 2050 as a “living document.”

“We will update it as thinking evolves,” he added.

“The vision will help us to shape our decisions on what to support and where to invest in the coming years.”

Feedback on the report can be submitted online.