Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: A Rapid River In The Smarty Jones

Oaklawn opened its 2021 meeting last Friday, Jan. 22, with Caddo River taking the day’s feature race, the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes for 3-year-olds, the only Kentucky Derby qualifying points race of the last week.

Caddo River serves notice with a 10 1/4-length victory in the Smarty Jones

The Smarty Jones, worth 17 points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1) is the first of four Derby points races at the Hot Sports, Ark., track. Next up will be the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (17 points) on Feb. 15, followed by the G2 Rebel (85 points) on March 13 and the G1 Arkansas Derby (170 points) on April 10 – three weeks before the May 1 Kentucky Derby.

Inaugurated in 2008, the Smarty Jones has yet to produce a classic winner, though Will Take Charge kicked off his Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old season with a victory in the 2013 Smarty Jones for Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas. Though he was unsuccessful while running in all three Triple Crown races, Will Take Charge won the G2 Rebel, G1 Travers, G2 Pennsylvania Derby, G1 Clark and was beaten a nose by Mucho Macho Man in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita.

While the Smarty Jones was the only points race, there were two very impressive maiden performances worth chronicling on Saturday, Jan. 23.

The first may have gotten lost on the Pegasus World Cup card from Gulfstream Park. Prevalence, a Godolphin homebred by Medaglia d’Oro trained by Brendan Walsh, absolutely destroyed a 12-horse maiden field going seven furlongs. Breaking half a step slow from the six post under Tyler Gaffalione at 7.80-1 odds, Prevalence worked his way toward the front along the rail after an opening quarter mile in :22.66. He was in front after a half in :46.09 and then left his rivals in the dust, pulling away under mild encouragement to win by 8 ½ lengths while completely geared down in the final yards. Six-furlong split was 1:10.45 with the seven furlongs timed in 1:23.00. He was given a Beyer Speed Figure of 89.

Prevalence was an impressive winner in his debut at Gulfstream Park on Pegasus World Cup day

Prevalence was one of eight first-time starters in the race, so it’s hard to gauge the quality of the field he was beating. I have a sneaking suspicion several of those who chased Prevalence will graduate soon as the field included a John Gunther homebred trained by Chad Brown (runner-up Stage Raider), a $1,050,000 Curlin yearling trained by Todd Pletcher (Ghazaaly, who finished third), and horses carrying silks of high-end stables like W.S. Farish, WinStar Farm/CHC Inc., and Lothenbach Stables, among others.

Walsh told Daily Racing Form‘s Mike Welsch he might look for an allowance race or consider the G2 Fountain of Youth (an 85-point Derby points test) on Feb. 27 for Prevalence’s next start.

Pedigree note: Prevalence was produced from the Ghostzapper mare Enrichment, whose Arch colt Estihdaaf won the G3 UAE Two Thousand Guineas at a mile in 2019. Enrichment was produced from the Seeking the Gold mare Sahara Gold, a daughter of the Storm Cat mare Desert Stormer, who beat males in the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

The other impressive maiden winner on Saturday was The Great One, a Nyquist colt who romped to a 14-length win at Santa Anita in a mile maiden race that ran with only four starters, including 11-10 favorite debut runner Fenway (a $650,000 yearling purchase by Into Mischief) from the Bob Baffert barn. The Great One is trained by two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill and is owned in part by Erik Johnson, a defenseman for the Colorado Avalanche of the NHL (thus the name The Great One, a reflection of hockey legend Wayne Gretzky’s nickname, fitting for a son of a horse named for another hockey star Gustav Nyquist).

The Great One, by Nyquist, drawing off by 14 lengths under Abel Cedillo

The Great One was coming off a nose defeat to Baffert-trained Spielberg in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 19 – his fourth start. Two starts earlier in a mile main track maiden race at Del Mar, The Great One finished fourth, beaten 13 lengths by Spielberg. So I think we can establish that The Great One is improving.

Unlike the Los Al Futurity, where The Great One raced on the lead throughout and was nailed in a head-bobber, he rated just off Fenway’s right flank through fractions of :22.91 and :45.76, then took command after three-quarters in 1:10.67. He went seven furlongs in 1:23.69 and under energetic handling by Abel Cedillo for most of the stretch run stopped the clock for a mile in 1:37.28 – a final quarter mile in 26.61 seconds after fast early fractions.

The Great One received a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, compared to an 81 for his Los Al Futurity.

O’Neill said the G2 San Felipe (85 qualifying points) on March 6 is the logical next step for The Great One.

If I had to pick between these two maiden winners, I’d go with Prevalence, simply because I see more upside.

Now a look at the Smarty Jones Stakes. My grading system (A to F) is entirely subjective and based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of fields.

Jan. 22: Smarty Jones Stakes, one mile, Oaklawn

Much was expected of Brad Cox-trained Caddo River, the 3-5 Smarty Jones favorite based on the Hard Spun colt’s 9 ½-length maiden win when stretched out to a one-turn mile for his third start at Churchill Downs last Nov. 15. He finished second in two previous seven-furlong sprints at Saratoga in September and Belmont in October.

He did not disappoint, winning by 10 1/4 lengths.

With Florent Geroux in the saddle, Caddo River went straight to the front and basically tow-roped the seven-horse field once around the Oaklawn oval to the finish line at the sixteenth pole in the “short stretch” configuration for one-mile races at Oaklawn. Each of his quarter miles went progressively slower than the previous one: :23.12, :24.04, :25.26 and :25.77. That’s about the only flaw (if you could call in that) I could see in the performance, which was very professional and rated a 92 Beyer Speed Figure.

There were three multiple winners in the lineup, plus the Steve Asmussen-trained Cowan, a two-time stakes runner-up, including the G2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. I don’t see a big upward arc for any of those who came in Caddo River’s wake, so the level of competition knocks down his grade a bit.

Hard Spun (like Prevalence’s sire Medaglia d’Oro and The Great One’s sire Nyquist) stands at Darley at Jonabell Farm. While his lone G1 victory came sprinting seven furlongs in the King’s Bishop (now the H. Allen Jerkens), the son of Danzig finished second to Street Sense in the Kentucky Derby and second to Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at four in 2007. His offspring have proven to be solid around two turns as well.

Caddo River, bred by and racing for John Ed Anthony’s Shortleaf Stable, is the firest foal from the Congrats mare Pangburn, a stakes winner for Shortleaf purchased for $130,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July Yearling Sale.

Anthony is no stranger to the Triple Crown trail, having won the 1980 Belmont Stakes with Temperence Hill and back-to-back Preakness Stakes in 1992-’93 with Pine Bluff and Prairie Bayou, respectively. He’s won Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes four times and the Arkansas Derby on three occasions. Like so many of his previous runners, Caddo River is named after a landmark in Anthony’s home state of Arkansas. We’re going to hear a lot more about this horse.

Grade: B

This Saturday we’ll have two Kentucky Derby points races, the G3 Holy Bull from Gulfstream Park and the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes from Santa Anita

Previously: Jan. 18 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card