Since the start of the season, the hierarchy of men’s college basketball has been constantly changing.
This week, when Gonzaga took over the top spot in The Associated Press Top 25 poll from Kansas, the Bulldogs became the sixth team this season to be No. 1. Any of those No. 1s, a group that also includes Michigan State, Kentucky, Louisville and Duke, could win the N.C.A.A. tournament, and all will certainly be key teams in the race for a national title.
Still, one by one, the big-name programs have faltered early this season, sometimes in surprising fashion. No outcome was more surprising, perhaps, than Duke’s home loss to Stephen F. Austin, the season’s first true stunner.
As league play begins in full among the sport’s power conferences next week, the teams that set themselves apart from the rest of the field will shape what the postseason brackets look like by March.
For now, the race to the top remains wide open, especially in competitive leagues like the Big Ten, the Atlantic Coast Conference and the Big East.
“It seems like it happens more times than not to have a start of the season like this, where there’s not an obvious best team,” said Ken Pomeroy, who has studied advanced analytics in college basketball since 2004 and operates the site Kenpom.com, which rates Ohio State as the best team and Gonzaga sixth (the A.P. poll released Monday ranked Ohio State at No. 2).
He added: “Eventually, it seems like teams will end up developing, but I’m not completely sold that a team like a Duke, Ohio State, Kansas, Michigan State or Gonzaga, even, won’t emerge as an obvious favorite once we get to March.”
While Louisville and Duke give the A.C.C. two of the best teams in the country by consensus of observers, the Big Ten could prove to be the country’s best conference over the long haul. However, Michigan State, which was both the preseason A.P. No. 1 and a favorite to capture its second national championship under Coach Tom Izzo, has already lost three games, including defeats by Duke and Kentucky.
Here is a closer look at each of college basketball’s power conferences.
Big Ten
Izzo said in an interview last week that he expects the Spartans to play their way back into national-title contention, but they should get plenty of competition from Ohio State, Michigan and Maryland. The Spartans are the only Big Ten team to win their first two league games, but Izzo understands a fast start only counts for so much.
“When I go home for Christmas, there will be no rings or banners under the tree for 2-0,” Izzo said. “It’s a nice start but there’s a long way to go.”
The Buckeyes, sparked by center Kaleb Wesson and guard Duane Washington Jr., have already notched wins over Villanova, North Carolina and Kentucky, but will see serious tests begin to mount once they get fully into the conference games, beginning next week against Wisconsin.
Pomeroy believes the road to a Big Ten championship won’t be clear.
“There’s just going to be tons of quality wins for those teams to get once we get into conference play,” he said.
A.C.C.
Since its overtime loss to Stephen F. Austin on Nov. 26, Duke has rattled off four straight victories, including that big win over Michigan State.
The question of whether freshman Vernon Carey Jr. and sophomore Tre Jones can maintain the workload they have carried to start the season will likely determine whether the Blue Devils can fend off challenges from the likes of Louisville and Virginia, the reigning national champion.
Big East
Like the Big Ten, the Big East traditionally experiences its share of parity during January and February.
Seton Hall, led by Myles Powell, emerged as the preseason favorite to capture the conference, but will likely be challenged hard by No. 10 Villanova, which has won five straight games. No. 12 Butler and DePaul have gotten off to fast starts but will likely experience bumpy roads ahead in a conference that could be heavily represented in the N.C.A.A. tournament when the picks are revealed March 15.
Big 12 Conference
Kansas, which has won the Big 12 title 14 of the past 15 years, has a trio of stars in Udoka Azubuike, Devon Dotson and Silvio De Sousa, who provide enough firepower to give the Jayhawks a strong shot at making it 15 conference titles in 16 years.
But Baylor has already toppled Villanova, Arizona and Butler to earn a spot in the top 10. Guard Jared Butler and his Bears teammates could be a threat if they keep that momentum up.
Southeastern Conference
Kentucky and Florida stand out as the two serious contenders for a league championship with the combination of freshmen Tyrese Maxey and Kahlil Whitney giving John Calipari’s team the edge over the Gators, who have their own talented freshman duo in Scottie Lewis and Tre Mann.
Kentucky needs to find some rhythm after already losing three games — including a surprising defeat by Utah.
Pac-12 Conference
The Pac-12 has been somewhat lost in the shuffle in recent years among basketball’s power leagues. Could this be the year it expands its N.C.A.A. tournament footprint?
Oregon has gotten out of the gates quickly with victories over Michigan and Seton Hall and had a near miss in a 73-72 overtime loss to Gonzaga. The Ducks and guard Payton Pritchard could be the class of a conference that might get up to five teams in the tournament, the other four being Washington, Arizona, Colorado and Stanford.
