There Is Good News For Colleges, Although You Probably Won’t See It

Here’s some good news you likely won’t read elsewhere — the number of college students is predicted to slowly increase over the next few years.

To be honest, that’s not really news. A steady rise in students has been evident in the data for years. But the good part is that the projected boost should be kicking in right about now.

That’s according to National Center for Education Statistics – the Department of Education. They keep the statistics. They say that, “enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions is expected to increase 3 percent between fall 2017, the last year of actual data, and fall 2028.”

Three percent may not feel like much of a boost. But it is when you consider that overall enrollment, especially at the undergraduate level, has been receding for nearly a decade now. It’s down nine years in a row. Like the projected bump, that was not surprising either. Demographers and enrollment counters saw the dip coming way ahead of time and many colleges were prepared. But that isn’t the point.

The point is that most schools should see their enrollments stabilize and even grow again very soon.

Even better, most of the boost is predicted in the coveted “traditional” demographic of young, direct from high school, students. Again, according to NCES/ED, enrollment among the young ones (14 to 24), “is projected to increase 6 percent between 2017 and 2028.”

The trend has big implications.

But the most visible result will be invisible. It’s also the reason you’re unlikely to see this information elsewhere.

It’s that, despite the continued prognostication and headlines, the collapse of college is not imminent. It never was. Frankly, that’s not news either as some of us have been saying exactly that for years.

If anything, there should be stories now about how well managed and resilient our colleges are. But that won’t happen because it’s way too easy and way too popular to say colleges are slow, bloated, outdated, too expensive or whatever.

If you think about it, it’s pretty amazing that colleges have survived the technological “creative disruption” that was supposed to end them, the price wars that were supposed to end them, the supposed lack of ROI that was supposed to end them, the student debt crisis what was supposed to end them, and Covid-19 which was supposed to end them. And that’s in the last ten years alone. Of course, that omits the malicious cuts in state funding that are actually a threat to end them.

And yet, here there are. Poised, if the data are correct, to regain their footing and return to measured, predictable growth. Slimmer in some cases, rattled, strained, but persistent and indispensable.

The coming upward glide path for college enrollment after a decade of written obituaries should remind those who care about higher education, once again, that demographics and economics drive high-level, sector-wide changes, not price or technology or other market dynamics.

Good as it is, it’s possible that the incoming enrollment tide may be even larger than projected in the next year or two because of the potential Covid bounce. According to, albeit incomplete, fall enrollment data some 16% of expected college freshmen did not make it into college classes, likely due to the disappointing reality of online college and general Covid-19 fears. If even half of those freshmen show up next year, when campuses return to safe in-person teaching, that surge, on top of the projected demographic growth, could be significant.

We are also likely to see a large, short-term boost in enrollments of foreign students as travel policies and political climates change. That alone would be exceptionally helpful to many schools.

It is worth flagging that these enrollment projections may – may – signal a corresponding slowdown in online, remote college programs.

Online programs may drag not just because they took a big reputation hit this year, but because the NCES/ED statistics predict that enrollment among 25-34 year old students, “is projected to be 6 percent lower in 2028.” The projections show a 5% increase in enrollments of those over 35, but that’s not an offset since there are significantly more college students in 25-35 cohort than the over 35 set. Overall, the projection data signal a drop of around 2% among students over the age of 25. And since most online students tend to be in the older, working-age groups, stagnation or retreat in their numbers is worth watching.  

The upcoming enrollment growth will be most prominent, percentage-wise, among part-time and Hispanic students. That’s further, potentially good news for community colleges, where most part-time and many minority students study. Our Community Colleges could use some good news and tailwinds.

The bottom line is that the long and significant storm that’s battered the academy of higher learning is not over, but dawn is breaking. There is light on the horizon in the most significant place – a slowly growing pipeline of students. For those who want our colleges to prosper, it feels like something we should celebrate.