Baseball

The Pitchers Whose Spin Rates Fell Most After a Crackdown on Sticky Substances




Change in spin in major league fastballs, compared with the average before June 3

Source: Upshot analysis of pitch data from Baseball Savant·Includes pitches thrown in games through July 17, 2021

Baseballs aren’t spinning the way they used to.

More than a month into the era of increased scrutiny on the application of prohibited sticky substances to major league baseballs, spin rates on fastballs have fallen about 4 percent, as strikeouts have decreased and on-base percentage has risen — midseason changes without parallel in decades.

The steep drop began around June 3, when the league made it known that it would address the issue directly, and it began to level off around June 15, the date the league announced its enhanced enforcement procedures would begin the following week, including in-game inspections by umpires and the threat of 10-game suspensions for pitchers found violating the rules.

An increase in spin rate can add more movement to breaking pitches. And with fastballs, it allows the pitch to stay elevated longer, making it seem as if the ball is rising.

Although applying any foreign substance to a baseball has been prohibited since the 1920s, the use of sticky substances like Spider Tack ⁠— a powerful adhesive created to help competitive strongmen and strongwomen hoist enormous Atlas stones ⁠— was an open secret, in line with the sport’s tradition of winking at scofflaws until the situation gets out of control.

And this spring, baseball did appear to be out of control. Hits were near record lows. Strikeouts were at record highs. Pitchers were so dominant this spring that by mid-May — less than seven weeks into the season — they had already racked up well more than a typical season’s worth of no-hitters. And spin was at the center of it.


Cumulative no-hitters since 1901

The changes in spin rates — measured using data from high-speed cameras that track every pitch of every game — are the most direct evidence that substances like Spider Tack were a significant factor in the dominance of pitching in the opening weeks of the season.

These materials allowed pitchers to grip the ball so well that they were able to generate far more torque on pitches, which in turn allowed them to spin the ball faster, making it harder to hit.

What’s changed

Typically, walks become somewhat less common as the season progresses. In 2021, walks increased after June 15 for the first time in decades:


Change in walk rate

Source: Fangraphs·This chart compares the walk rate each season from before June 3 with the walk rate from the period between June 15 and July 18.

The share of at-bats ending in strikeouts dropped to 23 percent:


Change in strikeout rate

Source: Fangraphs·This chart compares the strikeout rate each season from before June 3 with the strikeout rate from the period between June 15 and July 18.

Together, these contributed to the biggest increase in on-base percentage since at least 1990:


Change in on-base percentage

Source: Fangraphs·This chart compares the on-base percentage each season from before June 3 with the on-base percentage from the period between June 15 and July 18.

To measure the effect of the new rules on pitchers, The New York Times examined data from every fastball from 2017 to 2021, about 1.7 million pitches in all, and compared the change in spin rates in previous seasons with the rates in 2021.

In a typical season, a pitcher’s spin rate doesn’t change much: The rate on a fastball in May is usually close to the one on his fastball in September.

But this season, when even old-fashioned concoctions like a combination of rosin (which is legal) and sunscreen (which isn’t) came under scrutiny, most pitchers’ spin rates decreased after June 3. Of the 131 pitchers in our data set — pitchers who had thrown at least 150 fastballs since June 15 — fastball spin rates fell for all but 29 of them. And a handful of pitchers’ spin rates changed drastically, including nine whose fastballs lost 200 revolutions per minute or more.

Pitchers with biggest decreases

These are the pitchers whose spin rates on fastballs fell the most. (Some of these pitchers have openly discussed the effect of sticky substances, but several things — like injuries, changing pitching strategies or simply random poor performance — can account for changes in spin rates for individual pitchers.)


One caveat worth noting: There are many ways to identify which pitchers have been affected the most, and none are perfect. We could measure the simple change in spin rate before around the time of the ban, as we did above. We could measure this as a percentage, which may identify some pitchers whose fastballs were affected significantly even if they threw at lower speeds. Or we could measure change accounting for velocity of the fastball, since faster pitches naturally spin more.

Each of these methods yields a slightly different list. But no matter how we measured, these pitchers were at or near the top of it. (Each of the 10 players shown above ranked in the top 13 all three ways we measured.) Here’s how all the pitchers in our data ranked based on three different ways of comparing fastball spin changes:


Rank of pitcher spin change if you measure using …

Pitchers included in the charts above are highlighted.


Pitcher
Raw spin change Percent change Velocity-adjusted change
James Kaprielian

Oakland Athletics

1st 1st 1st
Trevor Bauer

Los Angeles Dodgers

2nd 5th 3rd
Garrett Richards

Boston Red Sox

3rd 3rd 5th
James Karinchak

Cleveland Indians

4th 2nd 4th
Dylan Cease

Chicago White Sox

5th 4th 2nd
Walker Buehler

Los Angeles Dodgers

6th 7th 8th
Gerrit Cole

New York Yankees

7th 9th 7th
Tyler Mahle

Cincinnati Reds

8th 6th 11th
Corbin Burnes

Milwaukee Brewers

9th 15th 13th
Tyler Anderson

Pittsburgh Pirates

10th 12th 6th
Chi Chi Gonzalez

Colorado Rockies

11th 13th 9th
Casey Mize

Detroit Tigers

12th 10th 18th
Drew Smyly

Atlanta Braves

13th 8th 17th
Yusei Kikuchi

Seattle Mariners

14th 14th 15th
Marcus Stroman

New York Mets

15th 19th 19th
Alex Cobb

Los Angeles Angels

16th 11th 14th
Kolby Allard

Texas Rangers

17th 18th 21st
Yu Darvish

San Diego Padres

18th 27th 10th
Alex Wood

San Francisco Giants

19th 17th 20th
Rich Hill

Tampa Bay Rays

20th 21st 27th
Ryan Yarbrough

Tampa Bay Rays

21st 16th 12th
Tarik Skubal

Detroit Tigers

22nd 20th 24th
Adam Plutko

Baltimore Orioles

23rd 22nd 22nd
Shohei Ohtani

Los Angeles Angels

24th 23rd 29th
Jordan Lyles

Texas Rangers

25th 26th 28th
Lucas Giolito

Chicago White Sox

26th 28th 23rd
Riley Smith

Arizona Diamondbacks

27th 25th 30th
Marco Gonzales

Seattle Mariners

28th 24th 25th
Max Scherzer

Washington Nationals

29th 33rd 26th
J.A. Happ

Minnesota Twins

30th 31st 16th
Caleb Smith

Arizona Diamondbacks

31st 35th 32nd
Jose Berrios

Minnesota Twins

32nd 30th 39th
Johan Oviedo

St. Louis Cardinals

33rd 34th 52nd
Taijuan Walker

New York Mets

34th 29th 33rd
Zac Gallen

Arizona Diamondbacks

35th 38th 37th
Jose Urena

Detroit Tigers

36th 32nd 49th
Merrill Kelly

Arizona Diamondbacks

37th 39th 31st
Johnny Cueto

San Francisco Giants

38th 36th 44th
Lance Lynn

Chicago White Sox

39th 42nd 46th
Frankie Montas

Oakland Athletics

40th 41st 35th
Martin Perez

Boston Red Sox

41st 37th 38th
Vince Velasquez

Philadelphia Phillies

42nd 46th 48th
Carlos Martinez

St. Louis Cardinals

43rd 40th 53rd
Jon Lester

Washington Nationals

44th 43rd 36th
Zack Greinke

Houston Astros

45th 44th 40th
Wil Crowe

Pittsburgh Pirates

46th 48th 43rd
Matt Moore

Philadelphia Phillies

47th 47th 34th
Lance McCullers Jr.

Houston Astros

48th 45th 41st
Andrew Heaney

Los Angeles Angels

49th 52nd 51st
Jordan Montgomery

New York Yankees

50th 50th 50th
Sandy Alcantara

Miami Marlins

51st 51st 45th
Freddy Peralta

Milwaukee Brewers

52nd 53rd 54th
Jake Odorizzi

Houston Astros

53rd 49th 42nd
Brandon Woodruff

Milwaukee Brewers

54th 54th 56th
Joe Ross

Washington Nationals

55th 55th 47th
Mike Foltynewicz

Texas Rangers

56th 56th 67th
Adbert Alzolay

Chicago Cubs

57th 57th 61st
Jameson Taillon

New York Yankees

58th 63rd 57th
Jose Alvarado

Philadelphia Phillies

59th 58th 63rd
Keegan Akin

Baltimore Orioles

60th 61st 58th
Eric Lauer

Milwaukee Brewers

61st 60th 76th
Chris Bassitt

Oakland Athletics

62nd 59th 64th
Kwang Hyun Kim

St. Louis Cardinals

63rd 62nd 60th
Tyler Alexander

Detroit Tigers

64th 64th 59th
Julio Urias

Los Angeles Dodgers

65th 68th 62nd
Kyle Gibson

Texas Rangers

66th 67th 69th
Patrick Corbin

Washington Nationals

67th 66th 55th
Jorge Lopez

Baltimore Orioles

68th 65th 65th
Wade Miley

Cincinnati Reds

69th 70th 73rd
Kris Bubic

Kansas City Royals

70th 69th 70th
Ryan Helsley

St. Louis Cardinals

71st 74th 84th
Shane McClanahan

Tampa Bay Rays

72nd 72nd 77th
Nick Pivetta

Boston Red Sox

73rd 73rd 78th
Max Fried

Atlanta Braves

74th 71st 66th
Mike Minor

Kansas City Royals

75th 78th 93rd
Trevor Rogers

Miami Marlins

76th 77th 85th
Michael Wacha

Tampa Bay Rays

77th 75th 68th
Nathan Eovaldi

Boston Red Sox

78th 76th 80th
Bryan Shaw

Cleveland Indians

79th 82nd 100th
Chris Paddack

San Diego Padres

80th 80th 81st
Adam Wainwright

St. Louis Cardinals

81st 83rd 104th
Brent Suter

Milwaukee Brewers

82nd 79th 83rd
Zach Davies

Chicago Cubs

83rd 81st 86th
Aaron Loup

New York Mets

84th 86th 105th
Cole Irvin

Oakland Athletics

85th 85th 91st
Josh Fleming

Tampa Bay Rays

86th 84th 92nd
JT Brubaker

Pittsburgh Pirates

87th 88th 90th
Adrian Houser

Milwaukee Brewers

88th 87th 87th
Danny Duffy

Kansas City Royals

89th 90th 94th
Logan Gilbert

Seattle Mariners

90th 89th 72nd
Jacob deGrom

New York Mets

91st 92nd 95th
Kyle Hendricks

Chicago Cubs

92nd 91st 88th
Emilio Pagan

San Diego Padres

93rd 96th 107th
Anthony DeSclafani

San Francisco Giants

94th 95th 82nd
Alec Mills

Chicago Cubs

95th 94th 89th
Kevin Gausman

San Francisco Giants

96th 97th 102nd
Sean Manaea

Oakland Athletics

97th 93rd 71st
Robbie Ray

Toronto Blue Jays

98th 98th 110th
Pablo Lopez

Miami Marlins

99th 99th 101st
Zach Eflin

Philadelphia Phillies

100th 100th 103rd
Chris Flexen

Seattle Mariners

101st 101st 98th
Antonio Senzatela

Colorado Rockies

102nd 102nd 79th
Justus Sheffield

Seattle Mariners

103rd 104th 106th
Hyun Jin Ryu

Toronto Blue Jays

104th 103rd 74th
Rafael Montero

Seattle Mariners

105th 105th 96th
Sam Hentges

Cleveland Indians

106th 106th 126th
Erick Fedde

Washington Nationals

107th 107th 111th
Joe Musgrove

San Diego Padres

108th 108th 112th
Zack Wheeler

Philadelphia Phillies

109th 109th 113th
Ian Anderson

Atlanta Braves

110th 110th 109th
Eduardo Rodriguez

Boston Red Sox

111th 111th 99th
Cal Quantrill

Cleveland Indians

112th 112th 115th
Cristian Javier

Houston Astros

113th 113th 75th
Matt Harvey

Baltimore Orioles

114th 114th 116th
Ross Detwiler

Miami Marlins

115th 115th 108th
Ross Stripling

Toronto Blue Jays

116th 116th 117th
Brady Singer

Kansas City Royals

117th 117th 123rd
Jon Gray

Colorado Rockies

118th 118th 97th
Dane Dunning

Texas Rangers

119th 119th 122nd
German Marquez

Colorado Rockies

120th 120th 120th
Dallas Keuchel

Chicago White Sox

121st 121st 129th
Brad Keller

Kansas City Royals

122nd 123rd 125th
Charlie Morton

Atlanta Braves

123rd 122nd 119th
Carlos Rodon

Chicago White Sox

124th 124th 114th
Matt Peacock

Arizona Diamondbacks

125th 126th 121st
Luis Castillo

Cincinnati Reds

126th 125th 118th
Kenta Maeda

Minnesota Twins

127th 127th 131st
Michael King

New York Yankees

128th 128th 124th
Aaron Nola

Philadelphia Phillies

129th 129th 130th
Luis Garcia

Houston Astros

130th 131st 127th
John Gant

St. Louis Cardinals

131st 130th 128th


To be included in this analysis, a pitcher must have thrown at least 150 fastballs before June 3 and at least 150 fastballs since June 15.

Or use the tool below to see how spin rates changed for any pitcher in our analysis. (To be included, a pitcher must have thrown at least 150 fastballs before June 3 and at least 150 fastballs since June 15.)


Pitchers’ paradise

Players and officials have rarely raised eyebrows at offenders in the past. The rules prohibiting foreign substances have been routinely ignored. In the case of gripping substances — rather than old-fashioned lubricants used strictly to create unpredictable movement — pitchers have said having a good grip on the ball makes it safer for batters.

When asked about the effects of the rule changes, Rob Manfred, the commissioner of Major League Baseball, focused on the positive effects it has had on the game’s offense.

“Enforcing our rules is really important — they’re on the books, they should be enforced,” he said, calling the changes in play “very promising.” He was particularly pleased there had been no increases in batters hit by pitches — a point that he has made before and that has been backed by data showing batters have been less safe in this era of sticky substances.

“Those are all huge positives for us,” Manfred said.

Cole, the Yankees pitcher, has made no secret of his displeasure with what he perceived as uneven enforcement of the rules. Ahead of the All-Star Game last week, he echoed those complaints, saying, “There was no real legislation on the customs and practices that were going on.”

Cole and other pitchers have had to adjust quickly. “In terms of what’s been going on, it’s been a challenge to do it in the middle of the season,” he said. “But as players, we’re here now, we’re adjusting and I think we’re better for it in the long run.”

As clear as the changes have been in the data, not every major league batter has noticed.

“I can’t notice it, I can’t,” said Joey Wendle, the All-Star infielder for the Tampa Bay Rays. “I know everybody wants to hear yes, but to be honest, no, I really can’t tell a specific difference.”

What 200 r.p.m. is worth

A pitcher’s fastball going from 2,600 revolutions per minute to 2,400 might not seem like much, but that much spin can account for an extra inch of movement on a fastball — and significantly more for some pitchers — said Michael Fisher, founder of Codify, a company that provides customized analytics to dozens of major league pitchers. And in baseball, an inch can mean the difference between a three-run home run and an inning-ending double play.

“I’m the last guy to pooh-pooh an inch of movement when a bat is three inches wide,” he said.

On top of that, the extra spin that pitchers can get using sticky substances can confound hitters who have built up a lifetime of what Don Teig, a consultant who has worked with major league teams on the role that vision plays in maximizing motor performance, calls “visual memories.” Those are built-up ideas about what different kinds of pitches look like in the fraction of a second a batter has to make a decision.

The extra movement from sticky substances can render those memories useless.

“Does this look like a split-finger fastball?” Teig said. “Does it look like a curveball? All these things are being decided at that moment of truth.”

“You’ve told yourself visually where that ball is going in less than 0.2 seconds,” he said.

With those extra rotations, “the ball’s not going to wind up there.”



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