All eyes in the U.S. are already focused on November’s presidential election. But for global climate action, America’s vote is not the only one that matters.
Countries home to nearly half the global population will choose leaders during the next year who could determine whether the world avoids increasingly dangerous levels of warming.
That’s particularly true in countries with growing economies and populations, such as India, Indonesia and South Africa, as I outlined in a story today. Those three nations have seen their greenhouse gas emissions increase as they rely on coal — the world’s most polluting fuel — to meet growing demands for energy.
While all three have indicated they support a transition to clean energy, they have also pursued nationalist agendas that have placed a priority on energy security over pollution reductions.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose government is doubling down on both coal and renewables, is expected to be reelected. In Indonesia, President Joko Widodo’s successor — who could be chosen as soon as next week — will probably continue Widodo’s energy and climate policies, which critics say contain loopholes that would prevent a coal phase-out and an end to deforestation and exploitative mining practices.
South Africa’s governing party, meanwhile, could lose its majority after badly managing an ongoing power crisis — resulting in a coalition government that could have a harder time passing climate policies.
Europe, a longtime climate leader, also faces a consequential parliamentary election in June that the European Council on Foreign Relations predicts will prompt a rightward shift. The continent has already been swept by an anti-green, populist backlash that has allowed hard-right politicians to gain ground in countries like the Netherlands, in part by courting voters who feel left behind by clean energy policies and inflation.
Months later, the pivotal U.S. election could see the return of Donald Trump, who as president pulled the United States out of the Paris climate agreement and has vowed to expand oil and gas development.
The outcome of the U.S. election hasn’t been lost on other countries. Those that depend on U.S. support to accelerate their own transitions fear that such aid (already in short supply) will dry up. Others worry that a climate-regressive America could give other laggards an excuse to do less.
All of this comes at a crucial time for the planet. Temperatures have risen by 1.3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times, and scientists say emissions need to be slashed 43 percent in the next six years to keep the critical 1.5-degree threshold from being forever out of reach.
The ability to hold back rising temperatures will depend largely on nations’ efforts to meet their already-sealed global agreements. The next batch of national carbon-cutting targets is due in 2025.
“Every year from this moment on matters,” said Frances Colón, senior director for international climate policy at the Center for American Progress. “The climate isn’t going to wait for us to resolve our political differences, at the domestic level in the U.S. or internationally.”
It’s Thursday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO’s Power Switch. I’m your host, Sara Schonhardt. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to [email protected].
Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Host Josh Siegel talks with Eric Beightel, the Biden administration’s top official coordinating federal infrastructure approvals across agencies, about what a Trump presidency would do to the White House’s clean energy agenda.
Blaze of insurance claims
The insurance industry has suffered historic losses from wildfires that have leveled entire communities. The industry is now tapping scientists to investigate how blazes spread through urban areas, a field of study that has taken on greater importance as climate change fuels more destructive wildfires, Avery Ellfeldt writes.
Wildfires torch forests and grasslands every year. But over the past decade, fires started consuming hundreds of homes at a time, generating billions of dollars in insured losses in states such as California and Hawaii.
“It’s just a very volatile time right now for companies as they are trying to understand, and model, and price risk related to a wildfire,” said Karen Collins of the American Property and Casualty Insurance Association, an industry trade group.
Tribes put projects to the test
Tribal litigation targeting a wind farm on Osage Nation land in Oklahoma and a pipeline project in Wisconsin are testing the legal limits of the Biden administration’s clean energy ambitions, Niina H. Farah writes.
A court decision in December that shut an 84-turbine Oklahoma wind farm elevated the issue of tribal property rights. Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline is also under legal scrutiny in a challenge to its crossing Chippewa reservation land near Lake Superior.
McMorris Rodgers to leave Congress
Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the Republican chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, announced that she won’t see reelection, Timothy Cama reports.
McMorris Rodgers, who represents eastern Washington state, will leave after two years at the committee helm. Her time has been characterized in part by opposition to President Joe Biden’s environmental policies. She has led in efforts challenging implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act and restrictions on fossil fuels.
Milestone: Europe’s climate monitor reported the average global temperature breached 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times over the past 12 months. What should we make of this?
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General Motors will spend almost $19 billion to secure a decade’s worth of battery components from LG Chem, the Korean-owned industrial giant. Its factory in Tennessee will supply 500 million tons of cathode material, enough to supply 5 million electric vehicles.
Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia called for an immediate end to the Department of Energy’s freeze on liquefied natural gas export permits.
U.S. security officials warned of a long-running cyber-hacking scheme backed by China that has infiltrated energy and other systems.
Taiwanese residents and environmental groups sued their government to push them to do more about climate change.
That’s it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.
