When Roger Federer sits back after his exhibition tour of Latin America and reflects on his 2019 season, he can be pleased with what he accomplished.
Few players would complain about four titles, winning a landmark 100th title, reaching a Wimbledon final, securing over $7million in prize money and an 84 per cent win record.
But Federer started his year with defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas and it ended the season in a similar fashion.
And both matches showed the one major area he needs to improve upon in 2020 – break point conversion.
At the Australian Open, Federer played Tsitsipas in the fourth round and won the first set in a tiebreak.
But the Greek starlet stormed back to win in four sets and reach the quarter-finals. In a match of fine margins, the difference was Federer’s failure to take any of his 12 opportunities to break serve and after the match, he was as self-critical as you will ever hear him.
He said: “I have massive regrets tonight. I felt like I have to win the second set. I don’t care how I do it, but I have to do it. Cost me the game tonight.”
Fast forward 10 months and after a virtuoso display to beat Novak Djokovic at the ATP Finals, Federer met Tsitsipas again, this time in the semi-finals.
However, the occasion seemed to get the better of Federer as he was broken in his opening service game after two uncharacteristic errors and lost the set as Tsitsipas saved six break points.
In the second set, Federer dropped serve to go 2-1 down but finally broke Tsitsipas to hit back straight away. However, it was a short-lived reprieve as Tsitsipas broke again to lead 3-2 and he went on to win the match as Federer converted just 1 of 12 break chances in the match.
And across the whole year, the statistics in terms of break points are damning for Federer, especially compared to his greatest rivals.
With 49 per cent Djokovic leads the ATP in break points converted, Rafael Nadal is second with 44.9 per cent and Casper Ruud third on 44.4 per cent while Federer is languishing in 20th place on 40.6 per cent.
Last year, Federer’s conversion rate was much higher with 41.8 per cent and was a key factor as he won two Grand Slams. In fact, 2018 was his highest since 2012 when he reached 41.9 per cent.
However, the most concerning stat for Federer when compared to Nadal and Djokovic is the conversion ratio across their careers.
With 1,449 matches under his belt, Federer is 91st in the all-time list on 41.1 per cent of break points converted.
Incredibly, Nadal is third on 44.9 per cent after 1,144 matches and Djokovic is seventh with 44.3 per cent following 1,038 matches played.
In a sport where margins are so slim, to be three per cent off Nadal and Djokovic is a huge difference for Federer.
And when you think back to some of the tough defeats he has suffered this year in particular, Thiem at Indian Wells (2/11), Djokovic in the Wimbledon final (7/13) and Dimitrov at the US Open (4/14), it is hard not to think 2019 has actually been a story of missed opportunities.
Federer has won almost everything there is to win in tennis, is capable of being unplayable on his day and still wants to keep playing despite being 38 and the rise of a young and talented generation of players.
But if he wants to avoid having the feeling of “massive regret” in 2020 there is one clear area he must improve on otherwise the time to hang up his racket will come sooner rather than later.
