March 1 will see a new special presentation day for Tesla, dubbed an “Investor Day,” so it should cover almost everything. Previous days have had a focus on Autonomy, Batteries, and AI. This session will begin at 3pm Central (1pm PST) and have 90 minutes of talks, followed by an hour of Q&A.
Anticipated agenda items include:
- A new version of the “Tesla Master Plan.”
- A new hardware platform, with lower costs and scalability, with rumors of revelations of a new cheaper car (as low as $25,000) as well as a minivan and more on the upcoming Cybertruck.
- Tesla’s new Autopilot update, coming after their “recall” agreement.
- The update in AutoPilot hardware known as “HW4” and implications for buyers of earlier cars and of the FSD pre-order package.
- Possible non-automotive products, including a possible HVAC unit for homes, and more on the robot.
- If not in the above, what Elon Musk says are big surprises.
To provide coverage, a new story summarizing important details from the day will be posted here shortly after the conclusion of the video broadcast, which you can also watch live here:
In addition, I will join with Mario Herger (Tesla and self-driving journalist from the “Last Drivers Licence Holder” site) for a video commentary on the announcements where we’ll play relevant clips and add analysis. We’ll have special analysis of autonomy to offer but will cover the whole spectrum of Tesla’s offerings.
This can be found in the evening on my YouTube channel:
Tesla Master Plan
Tesla has not been secret about its agenda. Two previous master plans have laid out the companies hope to start with the sporty and expensive roadster and work its way down to less expensive cars in order to make transportation and the world green and sustainable. The addition of rooftop solar and home batteries have extended that plan, which has led to speculation that home heating and cooling might be suitable targets, as they are one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions — heating because it is usually done with fossil fuel, and cooling because it generates the peak load on the grid on hot days, which is mostly supplied by fossil based “peaker” plants. This area is ripe for disruption.
Everybody is hoping to see the car described earlier in the master plan — a low-cost car for entry level customers who have been frightened off by the high sticker price of other electric cars such as the Tesla model 3 — even though their lower operating costs already make them competitive for total cost of ownership. A lower cost car — with rumors of a $25,000 sticker price — would shake the auto industry. At that price — particularly when you subtract $7,500 in federal tax credits and up to $5,000 in state incentives — it would be the obvious choice for those looking at the cheaper end of the market, especially after recent inflation. Even $30,000 would be ground breaking, or the $35,000 promised for, but rarely delivered for the Model 3.
The new plan announcements might also talk about cars that Tesla has yet to make, such as minivans and the Cybertruck entry into the most popular segment — pickup trucks.
Autopilot Hardware 4
Tesla’s new hardware revision is already being built and will soon ship. It includes a new generation processor, and a larger array of cameras than the current HW3. It may also include a higher resolution radar. HW3 included a radar but it was removed from most cars in recent years. Tesla has said buyers of older cars will not be able to upgrade to HW4 the way the older HW2.5 computer was upgraded to HW3 for all people who pre-purchased Tesla’s “FSD” package.
The upgrade will be interesting, and is expected to include much better cameras with more resolution and dynamic range, plus cameras in other locations that can’t be seen very well in the current configuration. The cameras may also feature ways to clean or defog themselves in bad weather, a major issue in HW3 as cameras can get occluded, disabling Autopilot and FSD functions, and the only remedy is to wait or get out and clean the camera — something that’s not an option in the promised robotaxi mode, where the car can come and pick you up with nobody in it.
Tesla promised long ago to those buying its FSD package or future delivery that all cars made after 2016 had “all the hardware needed” to provide that function. That was already backtracked for the upgrade from HW2.5 to HW3. Tesla now says that HW3 will still do the job, but HW4 will be better. Many are not sure Tesla can ever get actual real true self-driving working on HW3, and they may not even be able to do it on HW4. If they can do one but not the other it will leave some angry customers who paid as much as $15,000 to pre-order the package and have been watching their cars get older without getting delivery of anything but a driver-assist “beta” that’s not even close to alpha quality. If these customers learn that can’t ever get the full functionality, they won’t be happy campers.
