So, how’d everyone do?
It’s still too early to fully grade the 2023 NFL Draft class. However, with a year’s worth of evidence under our belts, we can do our best to redraft the first round. Let’s take a look at how last year’s Round 1 might go today and which teams hit home runs a year ago.
To keep things simple, we’ve limited any pick movement to pre-draft transactions. Trades like the Panthers’ jump to No. 1 and the Jets/Packers Aaron Rodgers deal that included a Round 1 pick swap are taken into account; the Texans–Cardinals deal at No. 3 and other shifts that occurred during Round 1 are not.
Note: The Dolphins forfeited their Round 1 pick last season as a result of an NFL investigation into tampering.
Original pick: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Hard to argue anything but the Rookie of the Year at the top of the list. Stroud became the youngest player in NFL history to lead the league in TD-INT ratio (23-5) and was simply outstanding wire to wire.
Stroud’s consistent growth as a passer at Ohio State, despite hiccups that were relentlessly nitpicked, absolutely had him on a track to keep improving, which is exactly what happened.
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2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Original pick: Stroud
I considered Anthony Richardson, and even Will Levis, here at No. 2. However, I think it’s important for people to understand context of the situation Young landed in last season. The Panthers were a disaster across the board. Young’s offensive line couldn’t protect or consistently create room on the ground. The defense was sloppy. The head coach got fired mid-year.
Young was better at the end of the year than he was at the start. And though there’s nothing to celebrate about his rookie campaign, he was out there every week and is still the same highly intelligent processor who can make plays, if he’s given some help.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama
Original pick (made by Houston after trade): Anderson
I really wanted to take Anderson at No. 2, but the Texans needed a QB.
Anderson’s rookie season was more or less as advertised — the explosive and relentless pass rusher led all rookies with 68 pressures. The Alabama product, who also tallied a 16.4 percent win-rate, didn’t get the national buzz Stroud did because of the position he plays. But the Texans hit two home runs last year, no question.
Original pick: Richardson
It’s sort of unfair to judge Richardson either way after such a brief stint last season. However, we did see enough from the rookie to know the Colts probably still love all the same things about the hyper-athletic passer they did last spring. The ceiling remains really high with Richardson, but we need to see a full season now.
There goes the rookie! Anthony Richardson runs it in for the first score of the game!
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/5gK57fV0Cg
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 17, 2023
Original pick: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Witherspoon had a definite argument again, as he was terrific last season for the Seahawks. However, considering Seattle still needs defensive line help. And, since this we have the benefit of knowing what we now know, we get to consider what Carter would be moving forward in Mike Macdonald’s system. As a rookie, Carter ranked sixth among NFL defensive tackles with a 17 percent win rate.
Original pick (made by Arizona after trade): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Lions GM Brad Holmes was ready to draft Gibbs here until Arizona called and moved up. We’re not doing trades, but let’s just make it easy and give the Lions their guy back. Gibbs was a perfect fit for everything Detroit does offensively, as a runner (945 rush, 10 TD) and receiver (52 catches).
Original pick: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
The feistiness Witherspoon played with in college absolutely translated, as he forced 12 incompletions and broke up 10 more pass attempts playing opposite Tariq Woolen in Seattle’s secondary.
Tyree Wilson, meantime, had some encouraging stretches in the final month last year but was very quiet otherwise.
Original pick: Robinson
The calculators are cringing at two running backs landing in the top 10. I don’t care, though, because Robinson and Gibbs are legit, versatile NFL playmakers. Robinson caught 58 passes for 487 yards, in addition to rushing for 969, and should only get better with Kirk Cousins in town.
Original pick (made by Philadelphia after trade): Carter
Most astute draft observers expected Nacua to outperform his draft slot (fifth round), but it’s fair to say few, if any, saw his 2023 happening. Nacua’s connection with Matthew Stafford (a rookie-record 114 catches for 1,667 yards) helped revitalize the Rams.
Nacua always was a collection of flashes mixed with injuries at BYU. Last year, we just saw the flashes, and they were awesome.
Original pick (made by Chicago after trade): Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
LaPorta set the NFL rookie tight end record for catches (86) and became just the third rookie TE in league history (joining Mike Ditka and Rob Gronkowski) to finish his first season with double-digit touchdown catches (10). LaPorta was the best of a talented 2023 tight end class that could have a few big-timers in the near future.
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Original pick: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
There was a lot of nervousness around Levis from evaluators last year — not exactly like what’s happening with Drake Maye, but not totally unlike it either. In Levis’ case, too much was made of a clunky 2022 season that saw him dealing with a foot injury and a coordinator change. We need to see him be consistent over a full season, but the Titans got a first-round talent in Round 2.
12. Houston Texas: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Original pick (made by Detroit after trade): Gibbs
The Cardinals moved up to No. 6 to snag Johnson last year. Time will tell if the aggressive jump was worth it, but Johnson did have a solid rookie season at right tackle and could swap over to left tackle if need be. He’s also still versatile enough to play guard. A very promising athlete.
13. Green Bay Packers: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama
Original pick: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
Teams really overthought this one. Like LaPorta, Detroit got Branch in the second round. An immediate starter at nickel, Branch was the Lions’ best and most consistent cover man as a rookie and already looks like a foundational piece on defense.
Brian Branch takes it back for the @Lions
📺: #DETvsMIN on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UIg1XAk0MB pic.twitter.com/upVXp4S1JA— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2023
Original pick (made by Pittsburgh after trade): Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Injury robbed Gonzalez of what looked like a very promising season in New England. The rookie from Oregon had some outstanding stretches in coverage early, breaking up two passes and forcing three incompletions in four starts.
15. New York Jets: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Original pick: Will McDonald IV, Edge, Iowa State
The Jets took a swing on McDonald’s traits here last year, and the jury’s still out (to a degree). McDonald had moments in his first season, but he also never cracked the top of the rotation.
I originally thought Chicago reached just a tad for Wright (at No. 10) last season, but the former Vol was a difference-maker on the ground as a rookie.
Original pick: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Addison was supposed to go to Minnesota to support Justin Jefferson and Cousins in the Vikings’ vertical pass offense. But then Cousins and Jefferson suffered injuries, and Addison (1,078 yards) wound up as the team’s leading receiver. He was one of several great value picks at wide receiver last year.
Original pick (made New England after trade): Gonzalez
Maybe the Rams know what they’re doing. Nobody in the league has everything Aaron Donald had, but Turner – another light (6-foot-2, 293 pounds), interior pocket pusher – showed truly elite agility last spring. It showed up on the field playing alongside Donald, as Turner’s 50 pressures tied Carter for the most by a rookie and his 12 sacks led all rookie DTs.
18. Detroit Lions: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Original pick: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
Kincaid was the only first-round TE last year, but the 2023 class as a whole was impressive. Even though LaPorta was the better player in Year 1, Kincaid had an outstanding rookie season himself (73 catches for 673 yards) and should only improve playing with Josh Allen.
Original pick: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
People got lost in the measurements with Tuipulotu, but his power and versatility served him very well at USC. That’s exactly what happened again for him as a rookie with the Chargers. Not only did Tuipulotu pick up 51 pressures and eight sacks, he was one of the NFL’s best rookie run defenders.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Original pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Flowers set multiple franchise rookie records in Baltimore last season, including catches (77) and receiving yards (858), and perhaps should be higher in this redraft. He served as a true field-stretching threat with the ability to win underneath. Flowers’ big-play ability should only improve as his confidence grows.
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21. Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Tippmann, OL, Wisconsin
Original pick: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Not only did Tippman step in right away and win a job at right guard with the Jets last season, he eventually flipped to center and finished better than he started. He’s a super-versatile, tough interior player. The Jets got great value selecting him in the second round.
Original pick: Flowers
Skoronski’s rookie season got off to a bit of a slow start due to a ruptured appendix, but his second half was much more productive as a run blocker and in protection, inside at guard. I still think Skoronski can play tackle, if need be, but at a minimum he’s on track to be a very good guard.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State
Original pick: Addison
Reed is a legit route runner with great hands and difference-making speed right off the snap. A tough player to press, he averaged nearly two yards per route run last season and scored eight touchdowns, as a steady and reliable target for Jordan Love. Reed was a great second-round value, and he’s a nice fallback option for the Vikings here with Addison already off the board.
Jordan Love to Jayden Reed for the seventh time this year!
📺: #GBvsMIN on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/cOt1Gy93Av pic.twitter.com/edDNVK1f9y— NFL (@NFL) January 1, 2024
Original pick (made by New York Giants after trade): Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Jaguars wound up snagging Harrison at No. 27 last season, so we’ll call this a definite win. The former Sooner was very solid in pass protection as a rookie, and though he still needs to develop as a run blocker, Harrison’s a keeper.
Original pick (made by Buffalo after trade): Kincaid
There are things to work on here — Porter was a handsy and physical player in college, and some of that translated to the league in a negative way (12 penalties last year). However, Porter was still very tough to crack in coverage and should shave off some of those penalties with experience.
Original pick: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
Benton was one of those players last winter who just popped every time on tape, especially during Senior Bowl week. A destructive force inside, Benton worked his way into a starting role with the Steelers midway through last season. Meanwhile, Smith produced just eight pressures in 17 games.
Original pick (made by Jacksonville after trade): Harrison
Another first-round talent who landed the second round because of the position he plays. Musgrave was limited mid-year by injury, but he had a fine start and a very good stretch run — including the playoffs — while looking like a long-term piece in Green Bay.
Original pick: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
One of the best defensive value picks last season, Cincinnati got Battle in the third round (No. 95) and, frankly, shame on everyone who thought a safety who started for Nick Saban as a freshman wasn’t going to have an instant impact.
Original pick: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Bresee had a solid rookie campaign for the Saints as a rotational interior player and was a consistent presence, despite being mainly a backup. Kancey was just a bit better, in my opinion, picking up 45 pressures and six sacks while working inside and some out over the tackle.
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30. Philadelphia Eagles: Byron Young, Edge, Tennessee
Original pick: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
The second Rams defensive lineman in the redraft, Young was all gas off the corner for Los Angeles. His win rate was sub-10 percent, but he still worked his way to 51 pressures and eight sacks. Like Turner, Young now has to prove it without Aaron Donald commanding the offensive line’s attention.
Another 2023 Rams pick who could’ve made this list: OL Steve Avila.
Original pick: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge, Kansas State
One of my favorite players in the 2023 draft, Dell is small but was extremely effective as a weapon for the Texans. In 11 games last year, he averaged 2.22 yards per route run, second only to Nacua among rookie receivers. Dell did suffer a serious leg injury last season, and his size remains a concern, but his first step and short-area quicks are just outstanding.
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(Photo of C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young: David Jensen / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
