Among 26 states for which sufficient data are available, 19 had fewer undergraduate students … [+]
Preliminary national figures show, that compared to last fall, undergraduate enrollment declined 2.5%, but enrollment of graduate students grew 3.9%, as of September 10. As a result, postsecondary enrollment as a whole is down 1.8%, compared to the same time last year.
The data come from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, which has been closely tracking trends in enrollment throughout the coronavirus pandemic. It’s important to recognize that these are still early results, subject to considerable change – they’re based on 3.6 million students at 629 colleges, which is 22% of institutions reporting to date. Here’s the full report.
Undergraduates
Enrollments were down across the board, but some sectors showed much larger declines than others.
- Community colleges reported the greatest loss, at 7.5%.
- Private, nonprofit four-year institutions declined 3.8%.
- Public four-year institutions had a slight decrease of 0.4%, although the picture varied by campus setting. Urban institutions actually increased slightly, but rural schools fell 4%.
- Private, for-profit institutions saw a decrease of 1.9%.
- At primarily online institutions, where more than 90% of students were enrolled exclusively online even before the pandemic, enrolled undergraduates decreased by 3.5%.
Undergraduate enrollment was down for every racial and ethnic group. American Indian and Native Alaskan students declined 7.7%; White students and Black students were each down 6.3%, and both Hispanic and Asian student enrollments dropped more than 3%.
Although data are less complete for them, international students look to have sustained the steepest drop-off, down 11.2%.
Graduate Students
Graduate enrollment was up, and all racial/ethnic categories of students experienced increases. Enrollment increased for Master’s students (6%), doctoral students (2.1%), post-baccalaureate certificate enrollees (24.2%), and those pursuing graduate certificates (3.1%). The only credential showing a decrease was the first-professional category, which was down 1.9%.
- Public four-year schools saw graduate enrollment grow by 4.7%.
- It was up .6% at private, not-for-profit institutions.
- At private, for-profit colleges, graduate enrollment was up 9.1%.
- At primarily online schools, graduate students increased by 3%.
Graduate enrollments grew significantly for Hispanic students (14.2%). However, international graduate students fell by 5%.
At the State Level
Among 26 states for which sufficient data were available, 19 reported fewer undergraduate students compared to the same time last fall, with enrollment declines ranging from 0.1% to 13.9%. By contrast, graduate enrollments were up in 21 of the 26 states, with 15 states exceeding the national average rate of growth of 3.9%.
Considering all enrollments, the largest declines to date are in Nevada (11%), Illinois (7.6%), Arkansas (7.5%), and Pennsylvania (7.2%). The biggest increases are in Arizona (5.2%), Maryland (3.5%), West Virginia (3.3%), and Tennessee (2.3%).
Reactions
Of greatest concern was the steep decline in community college attendance. “Adding to what we saw in the Summer term enrollments, the fall data continue to show how much higher the stakes are for community college students during disruptions like the pandemic and the subsequent recession,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “The picture will become clearer as more data come in, but at this point the large equity gap for students who rely on community colleges for access to higher education is a matter of critical concern.”
In general, these early data are also likely to be met by many college leaders with sighs of relief. Although enrollment declines are always concerning to institutions, these numbers are not nearly as severe as the upwards to 20% decrease some pundits were predicting. Hyper-forcasts of “zombie colleges” and other widespread institutional casualties look premature at best.
Clif Smart, President of Missouri State University (my former institution), provided this perspective, which may capture the sentiment of many campus administrators, “I think these early figures show that students value college and are willing, even when faced with many difficult challenges, to make an investment they know will pay off in the long run. The national numbers are similar to what we’ve seen locally, and I’m gratified by students’ response.’
Of course, the picture is not as sanguine at every college, including those premier institutions believed to be relatively immune to serious economic problems. Harvard University’s undergraduate enrollment is down 20% compared to last year, with 5,382 undergrads for the fall semester, compared with 6,716 as of Oct. 15, 2019.
With more enrollment data coming to the Clearinghouse daily, the next update to the Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information that tracks the impact of the pandemic on postsecondary enrollments is scheduled for October 15. Updated enrollment will be released monthly throughout the fall as more colleges report their data.
