TV and Movies

Oscar Predictions: Best Actor – Austin Butler’s ‘Elvis’ and Brendan Fraser’s ‘Whale’ Among the Transformational Hopefuls in the Running


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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

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UPDATED: August 13, 2022

2023 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTOR

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:

The fall festival circuit is weeks from kicking off where we’ll get first looks at “The Whale” with Brendan Fraser, “The Son” with Hugh Jackman and “White Noise” with Adam Driver. Pundits and critics are already well aware that names like Austin Butler from “Elvis,” Bill Nighy from “Living” and perhaps even Tom Cruise from “Top Gun: Maverick” will be in the discussion.

Transformational performances could take center stage with the likes of Butler and Fraser from their films as they play real-life people.

“The Inspection” was named as the closing film for New York Film Festival, and in its midst is said to be an awards-worthy performance from Jeremy Pope, and then there’s the possible double dose of Christian Bale this year with Scott Cooper’s “The Pale Blue Eye” and David O. Russell’s “Amsterdam.”

Plenty more to come.

Read moreVariety’s Awards Circuit Oscars Predictions Hub

Check out the latest predictions rankings below.

Read moreVariety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub

2022 category winner: Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)


ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

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Bill Nighy in ‘Living’
Ross Ferguson

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank Name Film Distributor
1 Hugh Jackman “The Son” Sony Pictures Classics
Peter as his busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into disarray when his ex-wife Kate turns up with their teenage son, Nicholas.
2 Brendan Fraser “The Whale” A24
A reclusive English teacher suffering from severe obesity attempts to reconnect with his estranged teenage daughter for one last chance at redemption.
3 Bill Nighy “Living” Sony Pictures Classics
An English-language adaptation of the script of “Ikiru” (1952), set in London in the 1950s.
4 Daniel Giménez Cacho “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix
The film explores the political and social modernity of Mexico.
5 Austin Butler “Elvis” Warner Bros
Biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.
Next in Line
6 Adam Driver “White Noise” Netflix
“White Noise” dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death, and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world.
7 Christian Bale “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studios
Set in the ’30s, it follows three friends who witness a murder, become suspects themselves, and uncover one of the most outrageous plots in American history.
8 Song Kang-ho “Broker” Neon
Boxes that are left out for people to anonymously drop off their unwanted babies.
9 Tom Cruise “Top Gun: Maverick” Paramount Pictures
After more than thirty years of service as one of the Navy’s top aviators, Pete Mitchell is where he belongs, pushing the envelope as a courageous test pilot and dodging the advancement in rank that would ground him.
10 Jeremy Pope “The Inspection” A24
Based on the life of filmmaker and Marine Corps veteran Elegance Bratton.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11 Colin Farrell “The Banshees of Inisherin” Searchlight Pictures
12 Christian Bale “The Pale Blue Eye” Netflix
13 Colin Firth “Empire of Light” Searchlight Pictures
14 Harry Styles* “My Policeman” Amazon Studios
15 Diego Calva “Babylon” Paramount Pictures
16 Winston Duke* “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
17 Jim Parsons “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” Focus Features
18 Paul Mescal “Aftersun” A24
19 Eddie Redmayne “The Good Nurse” Netflix
20 Adam Sandler “Hustle” Netflix
Also In Contention
21 Patton Oswalt “I Love My Dad” Magnolia Pictures
22 Tom Hanks “A Man Called Otto” Sony Pictures
23 Harris Dickinson “Triangle of Sadness” Neon
24 Billy Eichner “Bros” Universal Pictures
25 Mehdi Bajestani “Holy Spider” Utopia
26 Ewan McGregor* “Raymond & Ray” Apple Original Films
27 Daniel Craig “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix
28 Kelvin Harrison Jr. “Chevalier” Searchlight Pictures
29 Mark Rylance “The Phantom of the Open” Sony Pictures Classics
30 Park Hae-il “Decision to Leave” Mubi
Other Awards Possibilities
31 Daniel Kaluuya “Nope” Universal Pictures
32 Sam Worthington “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios
33 Daryl McCormack “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande” Searchlight Pictures
34 Caleb Landry Jones “Nitram” IFC Films
35 Ricardo Darín “Argentina, 1985” Amazon Studios
36 Viggo Mortensen “Crimes of the Future” Neon
37 Zac Efron “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” Apple Original Films
38 Cooper Raiff “Cha Cha Real Smooth” Apple Original Films
39 Jack O’Connell “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” Netflix
40 Ben Kingsley “Dalíland” No U.S. Distribution
Unranked Possible Contenders
Aaron Pierre* “Brother” No U.S. Distribution
Adam Sandler “Hustle” Netflix
Adam Sandler “Spaceman” Netflix
Alexander Skarsgård “The Northman” Focus Features
Antonio Banderas “Official Competition” IFC Films
Austin Butler “Elvis” Warner Bros.
Ben Kingsley “Dalíland” No U.S. Distribution
Benedict Cumberbatch “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” Marvel Studios
Bill Nighy “Living” Sony Pictures Classics
Billy Eichner “Bros” Universal Pictures
Brad Pitt “Bullet Train” Sony Pictures
Brad Pitt* “Babylon” Paramount Pictures
Brendan Fraser “The Whale” A24
Brendan Gleeson* “The Banshees of Inisherin” Searchlight Pictures
Brian Cox “Prisoner’s Daughter” No U.S. Distribution
Caleb Landry Jones “Nitram” IFC Films
Casey Affleck “Dreamin’ Wild” No U.S. Distribution
Channing Tatum “Dog” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Chris Evans “The Gray Man” Netflix
Chris Evans “Lightyear” Pixar
Chris Hemsworth “Thor: Love and Thunder” Marvel Studios
Christian Bale “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studios
Christian Bale “The Pale Blue Eye” Netflix
Colin Farrell “After Yang” A24
Colin Farrell “The Banshees of Inisherin” Searchlight Pictures
Colin Firth* “Empire of Light” Searchlight Pictures
Cooper Raiff “Cha Cha Real Smooth” Apple Original Films
Daniel Craig “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix
Daniel Giménez Cacho “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix
Daniel Kaluuya “Nope” Universal Pictures
Daryl McCormack “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande” Searchlight Pictures
David Earl “Brian and Charles” Focus Features
Diego Calva “Babylon” Paramount Pictures
Dwayne Johnson “Black Adam” Warner Bros
Eddie Redmayne “The Good Nurse” Netflix
Eden Dambrine “Close” A24
Elio Germano “Il Signore Delle Formiche” No U.S. Distribution
Ethan Hawke* “Raymond & Ray” Apple Original Films
Ewan McGregor* “Raymond & Ray” Apple Original Films
Finn Wolfhard “When You Finish Saving the World” A24
Gabrielle LaPelle “The Fabelmans” Universal Pictures
George Clooney “Ticket to Paradise” Universal Pictures
Géza Röhrig “The Way of the Wind” No U.S. Distribution
Gregory Mann “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” Netflix
Harris Dickinson “Triangle of Sadness” Neon
Harry Styles “My Policeman” Amazon Studios
Hugh Jackman “The Son” Sony Pictures Classics
Idris Elba “Three Thousand Years of Longing” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Jack O’Connell “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” Netflix
Jake Gyllenhaal “Ambulance” Universal Pictures
Jalyn Hall* “Till” Orion/United Artists Releasing
Ji-Min Park “Return to Seoul” Sony Pictures Classics
Jim Parsons “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” Focus Features
Jo Koy “Easter Sunday” Universal Pictures
Joel Edgerton “The Stranger” Transmission Films
Joshua Boone* “A Jazzman’s Blues” Netflix
Justin Chatwin “The Walk” Vertical Entertainment
Kelvin Harrison Jr. “Chevalier” Searchlight Pictures
Kevin Kline “The Good House” Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions
Lamar Johnson* “Brother” No U.S. Distribution
Marin Grigore “R.M.N.” IFC Films
Mark Rylance “The Phantom of the Open” Sony Pictures Classics
Matthias Schweighöfer “The Swimmers” Netflix
Mehdi Bajestani “Holy Spider” Utopia
Michael Banks Repeta “Armageddon Time” Focus Features
N.T. Rama Rao Jr. “RRR” Raftar Creations
Nicholas Hoult “The Menu” Searchlight Pictures
Nicolas Cage “Butcher’s Crossing” Saban Films
Nicolas Cage “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” Lionsgate
Owen Teague “Montana Story” Bleecker Street
Park Hae-il “Decision to Leave” Mubi
Pascal Greggory “One Fine Morning” Sony Pictures Classics
Patton Oswalt “I Love My Dad” Magnolia Pictures
Paul Mescal “Aftersun” A24
Ralph Fiennes “The Forgiven” Roadside Attractions
Ralph Fiennes* “The Menu” Searchlight Pictures
Ricardo Darín “Argentina, 1985” Amazon Studios
RJ Cyler “Emergency” Amazon Studios
Robert Pattinson “The Batman” Warner Bros.
Ryan Gosling “The Gray Man” Netflix
Sam Rockwell “See How They Run” Searchlight Pictures
Sam Worthington “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios
Sebastian Maniscalco “About My Father” Lionsgate
Song Kang-ho “Broker” Neon
Sope Dirisu “Mr. Malcolm’s List” Bleecker Street
Sterling K. Brown “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul” Universal Pictures
Steve Coogan* “The Lost King” Warner Bros.
Taj Atwal “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” No U.S. Distribution
Tim Roth “Resurrection” IFC Films
Timothée Chalamet “Bones & All” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Tom Burke “The Wonder” Netflix
Tom Cruise “Top Gun: Maverick” Paramount Pictures
Tom Hanks “A Man Called Otto” Sony Pictures
Viggo Mortensen “Crimes of the Future” Neon
Vincent Lindon “Both Side of the Blade” IFC Films
Wes Studi “Love Song” Bleecker Street
Will Ferrell “Spirited” Apple Original Films
Will Smith “Emancipation” Apple Original Films
Winston Duke* “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
Zac Efron “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” Apple Original Films
Zachary Levi “Shazam! Fury of the Gods” Warner Bros.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The 95th Oscars ceremony at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC





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