Energy

Oil, China, Propane, India Stirring The 'Export Waters' Beneath A Calm Surface


Some exports are down sharply while others are increasing in a turbulent export environment. 

Getty

Turbulence and cross-currents churn just beneath the seemingly calm surface of the river that is U.S. exports.

On the surface, U.S. exports to the world are flat, off an ever-so-slight 0.14%, what you could almost call a rounding error.

Look beneath the surface, however, and the story is a different one, one that can make supplies chains more challenging.

U.S. exports to China down more than $10 billion. Exports to Canada and Hong Kong down another $3 billion-plus each.

And yet, at the same time, exports to India are up $2.26 billion while those to another five nations are up more than $1 billion each: Japan, the Netherlands, Brazil, France and Belgium.

Looking at the commodities, the products themselves, the situation is similar: lots of choppiness.

Most of the news on exports over the last year, including in some of my posts, has involved stunning reversals in soybean shipments to China, motor vehicle shipments to China, oil shipments to China. Those losses grew from the tariff tit-for-tat between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in what was then a nascent trade war and, with each passing day, looks more and more like the status quo.

There were other losses, too. China, long the willing recipient of the United States’ recyclables and home to some of the world’s worst pollution, changed course to better protect its environment. Scrap aluminum exports, for example, are down 46.85%.

So far this year, overall U.S. exports to China are down 19.31%, with exports of oil down 71.51%, equal to $2.63 billion. Motor vehicle shipments are off $861.40 million. Shipments of aircraft and parts are down $719.86 million. Soybean exports to China are down $488.12 million.

I have also written about exports that were performing well.

This year, through the first five months of 2019, the most recent data available, exports of oil at up $8.29 billion, despite the large decrease in China. That is due to the hydraulic fracturing industry that has the United States nearing energy independence as exports of oil, propane and other gaseous hydrocarbons have skyrocketed.

Exports of propane and other petroleum gases as well as two other product categories — medicines in pill form; and vaccines, plasma and other blood “fractions” — have increased more than $1.4 billion each.

Then there are those exports that are taking a hit.

Gold, machinery to manufacture semiconductors and gasoline are each down in excess of $2 billion from the same five-month period of 2017. For the first two, the decline is more than 25%. For the category of gasoline and related fuels, the percentage decline is only 5.79%. U.S. exports of corn, like soybeans, have take a hit also, down $1.03 billion this year.

Here’s a look at the top 10 U.S. exports to the world through the first five months of the year, with total value, change in value and percentage change

May 2019, year-to-date Total Change Percent
Total, all U.S. exports 685,547,233,960 -968,792,350 -0.14%
1. Civilian aircraft 51,277,426,191 743,442,786 1.47%
2. Gasoline, other petroleum-based fuels 35,639,391,825 -2,189,395,973 -5.79%
3. Oil 25,362,883,806 8,289,943,297 48.56%
4. Motor vehicles 22,713,691,618 -926,148,938 -3.92%
5. Motor vehicle parts 18,493,590,565 -778,398,878 -4.04%
6. Computer chips 15,619,715,941 23,324,234 0.15%
7. Low-value exports 15,164,036,798 858,019,805 6.00%
8. Cell phones, related equipment 12,462,474,017 -753,784,164 -5.70%
9. Propane, other gaseous hydrocarbons 12,312,364,610 1,568,713,749 14.60%
10. Medical equipment 12,230,022,072 571,602,188 4.90%

 



READ NEWS SOURCE

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you accept our use of cookies.