If there is one thing that jumps out about this year’s season win-total projections, it’s that making the playoffs last season didn’t mean much.
Four 2023 playoff teams are projected to have losing records this season — the Cleveland Browns (8.5 wins), Los Angeles Rams (8.5), Pittsburgh Steelers (7.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7.5). Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as the Steelers coach, but some people are hard to convince, it seems. Oh wait … I am one of them.
The bookmakers also don’t think much about parity, as eight teams have over-under totals of 10.5 wins or more. That would be the most teams with a win total greater than 10 in a season since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002. We have five of those teams hitting the over as we take out our crystal ball again. We did pretty well last season, going 4-2 on our best bets and 19-13 overall for our fourth straight winning June.
Here are my picks for every team’s win-loss over/under.
All numbers come from BetMGM. If you want to wager on the win totals, you can find them here.
Over 6.5 (+120)
The Giants were not surprised that Darren Waller retired this week. And probably not that upset about it either, as injuries and maybe some focus issues rendered Waller less than the dominant tight end he was with the Raiders. The Giants also probably got a chuckle when some people thought Drew Lock was brought in to take Daniel Jones’ job. Jones is not that bad, people. He will be able to get the ball to Malik Nabers. And Brian Daboll didn’t suddenly forget how to coach last season when the Giants disappointed many and fell from 9-7-1 to 6-11.
This is a great bounce-back spot, and a defense led by Dexter Lawrence II and Kayvon Thibodeaux will be much better with the addition of Brian Burns.
Under 8.5 (+125)
Who has it better than the Chargers and new coach Jim Harbaugh, who traded in a lot of his offense around quarterback Justin Herbert but inherited some defensive talent in Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa? He dumped Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler, but … apparently the Chargers are four games better than they were last season. Never mind that Harbaugh hasn’t coached in the NFL in a decade. Plus, he is in no rush, as a rebuild and new culture installation might take a year or so to hit the ground running.
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Over 10.5 (-125)
Hey, the last we checked, Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson are still on the roster. And Sheldon Rankins was a very nice add on defense. The Bengals also have given Joe Burrow perhaps the best offensive line of his career and can get the steam train going early thanks to their schedule. Cincinnati opens against the Patriots, Chiefs, Commanders and Panthers. Outside of the defending champs, that’s three teams with new coaches, two with new quarterbacks and last year’s No. 1 pick, who still has much to prove.
Over 7.5 (-125)
New coach Mike Macdonald took down all the old pictures in the halls from the Pete Carroll era, which raised some eyebrows. But he is a pretty good artist himself and he should draw up some good stuff for a Seahawks defense to get a lot better. First-round defensive tackle Byron Murphy II single-handedly improves an awful run defense and wins NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (13-to-1 odds. You’re welcome.)
Plus, we think people are sleeping on Geno Smith — some even think the acquisition of Sam Howell means more than needing a guy to hold a clipboard. But Seattle dropped 30 passes (ninth-most in the NFL) and gave up 229 pressures (sixth-most) while Smith still led the league in game-winning drives and had a higher passer rating than Patrick Mahomes, Burrow and C.J. Stroud.
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Under 7.5 (+120)
I don’t know how Baker Mayfield did it last season, scrambling around to buy time and make big throws to win a lot of tight games. He got rewarded with a big contract, as did Mike Evans, and I am not sure that’s the best thing for the Buccaneers in the long term. Or in the short team. They lost offensive coordinator Dave Canales to the Panthers, and I see regression on offense. I also see a defense that lost Shaquil Barrett, Devin White and Carlton Davis.
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs won a playoff game last season, but feel like a strong candidate for regression. (Kim Klement Neitzel / USA Today)
Over 8.5 (+105)
We are excited about Anthony Richardson, plus the Colts somehow had the best defensive player in the draft — Laiatu Latu — fall into their laps. Shane Steichen is one of the better play-callers in the league and was sorely missed in Philadelphia, while defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has done a nice job. They won nine games last season when Richardson was hurt and Gardner Minshew II filled in, and they re-signed 10 of their 13 unrestricted free agents. What are we missing?
The rest of the league
Under 11.5 (-125)
The 49ers have won over 12 games the last two years, and Brock Purdy still has all of his offensive toys. The defense sputtered a little down the stretch last season, but losing Chase Young may actually be a positive. I also thought they quietly had one of the better drafts in the league. So, what’s the problem? Rest. Or lack thereof. As Warren Sharp points out, the 49ers have the largest net rest disadvantage (-21 days) when you compare schedules. They play eight games where they will have less rest coming than their opponents — that’s the most in NFL history. (The Ravens, on the other hand, have a plus-16 rest differential). It’s why we will go with 11 wins instead of more.
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Under 11.5 (even)
We cashed on the Chiefs under last season (same number), as it was the first time with Mahomes as their starter that they didn’t win at least 12 games. And while Kansas City has boosted its wide-receiving corps (their 6.5 air yards per attempt was the second-lowest in the NFL), it will take some time to click. Plus, Andy Reid smartly doesn’t care much about the regular season anymore. Eleven wins — and maybe even 10 — seem pretty safe to win the AFC West again.
And it’s a good thing they don’t care, otherwise the Chiefs would have had their feelings hurt by what the NFL schedule makers did to them. Kansas City plays every day of the week this year except Tuesday, including games on Dec. 21st and 25th.
Under 11.5 (-160)
We’ve covered how the Ravens will have a little more bounce to their step thanks to the schedule-makers. But they will need it, as they have more work to do, replacing most of their offensive line, linebackers and entire secondary. Plus they open at the Chiefs, vs. the Raiders, at the Cowboys, vs. the Bills and at the Bengals, so it’s hard to see all the new pieces coming together and starting with a 3-2 record. Last season was the first time in four years that the Ravens went over their season total number (9.5), and we think expectations are a little too high again this year.
Over 10.5 (+120)
The Bills never get their due respect, as coach Sean McDermott (seven seasons) and quarterback Josh Allen (six) have never gone under their season win-total projection. They did a good job bolstering their receiving corps with Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel while replacing some of the pieces they lost on defense. This might finally be Allen’s MVP year (plus-800). Buffalo has a great home-field advantage and was 7-1 there last season. That’s a foundation for going over season totals every year.
Over 10.5 (+105)
People doubted the Cowboys last season too, but they were easy over winners. And now we have Dak Prescott in a prove-it year. But that pertains to his playoff record, not regular season, and Prescott takes care of business in the fall. Dallas did lose tackle Tyron Smith and running back Tony Pollard, but added Tyler Guyton and Ezekiel Elliott to replace them. They can still bring back free-agent corner Stephon Gilmore. Again, no one is saying to get excited about the Cowboys. Just book another underachieving 11-win season.
We’re not ready to project the Cowboys will perform any differently in the postseason, but Dak Prescott and company will continue their regular-season success. (Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)
Under 10.5 (-120)
I started typing this thinking that I would be taking the over here, given the addition of Saquon Barkley, the return of C.J. Gardner-Johnson and another great draft class. But I was surprised when Jalen Hurts said that new coordinator Kellen Moore is replacing 95 percent of the offensive system, and it so happens that I think Moore is vastly overrated anyway. The softer part of the schedule is early on, so if getting used to a new offense prevents a 4-2 start, the Eagles aren’t getting to 11 wins. Plus, we don’t really know how Hurts will bounce back from a down year and the loss of center Jason Kelce or how Nick Siriani will respond to being on the hot seat after a 1-6 finish (including the playoffs last season).
Over 10.5 (-115)
The Lions fixed their secondary in the offseason by drafting Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and signing Amik Robertson, and I think receiver Jameson Williams has a breakout in Year 3 to take the offense to another level. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson made the right decision to stick around another season as I think Dan Campbell, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the league’s best running-back tandem lead the Lions to the Super Bowl this season.
Over 9.5 (-135)
The Dolphins’ defense took some salary-cap-related hits, but you don’t pick the Dolphins to win games because of their defense. Their offense finished top five in total points, yards and completion percentage last season, and Tua Tagovailoa should only get better.
Plus they have a new secret weapon in tight end Jonnu Smith. The Dolphins threw a league-high 42 screens to receivers last season, according to TruMedia — but only one was to a tight end. Smith, on the Falcons, had the third-most yards after catch over expectation on screens (+71). This over prediction only really requires that the Dolphins take care of business at home against the Titans, Cardinals, Raiders and Patriots and win six of their other 13 games.
Over 9.5 (-135)
I think Jordan Love and the Packers overachieved a little last season, but I like what Green Bay did this offseason. Josh Jacobs will be a perfect fit, as he is a tough runner, and I also think Matt LaFleur will do a better job of using him in the passing game than the Raiders ever did. On defense, linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and safety Javon Bullard are nice chess pieces — it’s rare when a team brings in four new safeties, but I like the four guys they brought in.
Under 9.5 (+115)
Kirk Cousins may not have a lot of prime-time or postseason success, but the guy knows how to win regular-season games. That won’t be helped, however, by the team’s decision to draft QB Michael Penix Jr. in the first round, as the lack of a pass rusher and defensive standouts is astounding. I am wavering a little because the schedule is not that hard. If you look at the advance point spreads, the Falcons are favored in 14 total games, 13 after a tough opening three-game stretch against the Steelers (and former head coach Arthur Smith), Eagles and Chiefs. It’s going to be close, but we’ll take the value and the under.
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Over 9.5 (-145)
The most-improved team in the league last season added Stefon Diggs, Dalton Schultz, Danielle Hunter, Denico Autry and Azeez Al-Shaair and they have the league’s next great quarterback in Stroud. I don’t know exactly what Diggs brings after his rapid drop-off in Buffalo or what role he is willing to accept, but he has the skill set to complement Nico Collins and Tank Dell and give the Texans a great attack. Stroud already seems like a great leader, and he should be able to fire up Diggs, but it’s a dealbreaker if he can’t. I almost forgot Joe Mixon, one of the many transplanted running backs who should be great in the fourth quarter.
After one season, C.J. Stroud already looks like the NFL’s next great young quarterback. (Tommy Gilligan / USA Today)
Under 9.5 (+ 120)
This appears to be a trap number. How are the Jets not going to win 10 games? After all, Aaron Rodgers is back (though not at mandatory minicamp), the offensive line is much improved, I love the addition of receiver Mike Williams as a No. 2 and the defense has been great for two years. They even got a solid backup QB in Tyrod Taylor in case Rodgers breaks down again. But I think the Jets will regret taking a project in tackle Olu Fashanu in the first round, and there is not a lot of depth. Plus, it’s hard to have a lot of faith in a creaky 40-year-old quarterback who seems to have a lot of interests outside of football.
Under 8.5 (-105)
People were way too high on the Jaguars last season, and under 10.5 wins was an easy win. We were going to go the other way this year, as the name of this game is zigging and zagging, but there is a pretty good chance Jacksonville will be 1-3 after road games at Miami, Buffalo and Houston (and the home game against Cleveland is no gimme). And we’re not certain receiver Gabe Davis and defensive tackle Arik Armstead are exactly home-run free-agent signings. But when it comes down to it, we’re just not sold on Trevor Lawrence being a true difference-maker, and like the upside of Stroud and Richardson in the AFC South more.
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Under 8.5 (+115)
There was a lot of great coaching in the NFL last season, as the Rams were another team that overachieved. Old man Matthew Stafford also held up — a dicey proposition to happen again — and, oh yeah, Aaron Donald is gone (though it wouldn’t shock us if the best defensive player in the game came back from retirement late in the season to help out his old friends). Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris also split (to the Falcons), and we think that’s a big deal. We like Stafford’s no-look passes, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams as much as the next guy, but we see an 8-9 team. Maybe even 7-10.
Under 8.5 (+135)
Vegas is giving away money. Only 8.5? The Bears won seven games last season behind their defense, and then added quarterback Caleb Williams, receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze and running back D’Andre Swift to the offense. Add in DJ Moore and that might be the best — at least the most complimentary — receiving corps in the league (yeah, Odunze was my No. 1 receiver in the draft). The defense is still stout thanks to bringing back Montez Sweat and Jaylon Johnson, but some things can’t be duplicated, like the league-high 22 interceptions. And no one will be looking past the Bears this year. So … no, the wiseguys do not give away money. It says here the Bears only get to seven or eight wins.
Under 8.5 (+120)
People have no respect for Deshaun Watson or what the Browns accomplished without him last season, as this is a three-game drop from their 11-win total. Cleveland needs to get off to a good start, as four of their final six games are on the road, with the two home games against the Chiefs and Dolphins. They didn’t do much this offseason either, as their big acquisitions were receiver Jerry Jeudy and backup quarterback Jameis Winston.
Over 7.5 (-120)
The Saints won nine games last season despite a rocky introduction of new QB Derek Carr, and even his many critics will tell you he is always a lot better in his second year in a system. New Orleans has some interesting pieces at receiver and Taliese Fuaga is a big-time addition to the offensive line, And they’re still in the league’s worst division. After opening the season against the Panthers, the Saints face a gauntlet of games at Dallas, vs. Philadelphia, at Atlanta and at Kansas City. If they can open up 2-3, it’s smooth sailing.
Under 7.5 (+ 145)
Another trap line. Surely this team is as good as last season’s 10-game winner with new quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, running game guru Arthur Smith at offensive coordinator and solid draft picks like Troy Fautanu and Payton Wilson. But Pittsburgh was 9-2 in games decided by seven or fewer points, and while there will be some correction there anyway, it also comes with a brutal schedule.
They better get off to a great start because their nine games after their bye week are brutal: vs. Baltimore, at Cleveland, at Cincinnati, vs. Cleveland, at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, vs. Kansas City and vs. Cincinnati.
Under 6.5 (+125)
I don’t have much faith in either Sam Darnold — still getting chances as believers think the switch is finally going to flip in Year 7 — or college hand-off specialist J.J. McCarthy as a rookie. The Vikings also don’t have a very good defense and have a tough schedule. If they don’t beat the Giants on the road in the opener, there is a good chance they’re 0-6. Unless you see a win over the 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets or Lions.
It’s also hard to see the Packers regretting dumping Aaron Jones and having the Vikings pick him up. That’s just not how things work out for aging running backs.
Over 6.5 (-145)
Minshew and Aidan O’Connell are really that bad? The Raiders won eight games last season despite some terrible coaching from Josh McDaniels and awful quarterback play from Jimmy Garoppolo over the first eight weeks. The players love new coach Antonio Pierce — owner Mark Davis didn’t even consider Jim Harbaugh — and then gave defensive tackle Christian Wilkins a Brink’s truck so teams can’t double- and triple-team Maxx Crosby. And receiver Davante Adams, still one of the best two or three receivers in the game, will open things up for rookie turbo-booster Brock Bowers. And vice versa. But they’re only going win six games because of one of the least exciting quarterback competitions ever? Nah.
Can the Maxx Crosby-led defense carry the Raiders? Given the state of the quarterback room, it will probably have to. (Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)
Over 6.5 (+115)
This one comes down to your gut feeling on quarterback Will Levis. I think he is going to be pretty good, and would/should have been the second guy drafted if he was in this year’s draft class. He has a big arm and some toughness, along with the ability to stick a throw in traffic and scramble out of trouble. And now he has an offensive-minded coach in Brian Callahan, a revamped offensive line and an interesting receiver trio in DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. Tony Pollard has to be better (and healthier) than he was last season in replacing Derrick Henry, and the Titans addressed some defensive needs in the draft. Hey, we only need seven wins! Go with my gut.
Under 6.5 (Even)
If Bobby Wagner and Ekeler are two of your big free-agent signings, it’s hard to do cartwheels over a team’s chances of winning seven games. Drafting Jayden Daniels might be something to get excited about down the road, but there are going to be some growing pains this year. There is also a question if his slender body can hold up to the punishment of the NFL when he takes off running. And run he will, as this offensive line is still not very good. There are also a lot of holes on defense, but that’s OK as the new regime has plenty of time to rebuild the roster. Don’t back a team full of placeholders.
Over 6.5 (-160)
Marvin Harrison Jr. will be a big help to Kyler Murray, as will a revamped offensive line. James Conner is still a load carrying the ball and tight end Trey McBride is going to make everyone a lot of money in fantasy football. The Cardinals also got better defensively with savvy, understated free-agent pickups like cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting and draft picks like defensive lineman Darius Robinson and cornerback Max Melton. Plus, we realized that we picked the 49ers and Rams to both go under their totals in the NFC West, so the Cardinals and Seahawks cash in on some of that.
GO DEEPER
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Under 5.5 (-105)
Everybody loves guards. Who knew? The Panthers spent $150 million on guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, and people are pounding the over, betting this number up from 4.5. While Bryce Young will take less than the 62 sacks he was hit with last season, and Diontae Johnson should prove to be a reliable target, I don’t know if I see three more wins than last season. I didn’t love the draft haul, there will be some growing pains for new coach Dave Canales, and Brian Burns was a big loss on defense.
Under 5.5 (+120)
This is quite a drop from last year’s total of eight wins, although two of those came against a Chargers team quarterbacked by Easton Stick. While I think taking Bo Nix 12th in an NFL Draft is negligence, I also think Sean Payton can mold him pretty quickly into a functional robot who can run for first downs when things break down. Russell Wilson, it turns out, had enough experience, success and free thought that he was going to follow his instincts sometimes and not just throw it exactly where Payton wanted. He also missed many of those throws, which was an issue.
Denver is going to win either five or six games, as while it has a brutal schedule (AFC North, and an opening four games at Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh, at Tampa Bay and at the Jets), it will catch some teams later looking past them and then huffing and puffing at Mile High. Give me five wins.
Over 4.5 (-160)
The Patriots were awful last season, and I do think Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett give them more hope at quarterback this season. The biggest reason, though, that I am going against the public — this number has already been bet down from 5.5 wins — is because the huge breath of fresh air that new coach Jerod Mayo must be from deposed king Bill Belichick.
(Top illustration: Dan Golfarb / The Athletic; photos of Daniel Jones, Jim Harbaugh and Joe Burrow: Ryan Kang, Ric Tapia and Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
