Brown has never made an All-NBA team, but he was an All-Star in 2021 and received All-NBA votes in 2022, so he could very well be in the mix in 2023.
Brown’s situation is an interesting one — he’s unlikely to sign a standard contract extension before reaching free agency because the maximum raise (20%) on his 2023-24 salary ($30,723,214) would fall well short of his projected maximum salary for the 2024-25 season as a free agent.
Meeting the supermax criteria would change that equation, making Brown eligible for a far more substantial raise on a DVE. But would the Celtics be willing to commit to a five-year supermax contract for their second-best player? The NBA hasn’t issued a cap projection for ’24-25 yet, but if we assume a $143M cap (a $10M bump on the projected $133M cap for ’23-24), a five-year DVE that begins in 2024 would be worth $290M+.
Tatum, meanwhile, made the All-NBA First Team in 2022, putting him in a very good position to maximize his earnings.
Because he’ll only have six years of NBA service under his belt at the end of the 2022-23 season, Tatum won’t have enough experience to sign a supermax extension next offseason. But if he makes another All-NBA team, he will have met the performance criteria, having earned All-NBA honors in two of the three years before he gains the necessary service time for a DVE.
That’s what happened with Jokic — he met the performance criteria in 2021, but couldn’t sign his supermax extension until he met the service time criteria in 2022. Another strong season from Tatum could put the Celtics forward in the same boat.
Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet (Raptors)
Siakam and VanVleet aren’t among the NBA’s top tier of superstars, but they’re certainly in the second or third tier. Siakam has actually already earned two All-NBA nods, making the Second Team in 2020 and the Third Team in 2022, while VanVleet made his first All-Star team earlier this year. An All-NBA spot for either of them in 2023 would make them supermax eligible next offseason.
Of course, even if one or the other qualifies for a DVE, I’m somewhat skeptical that the Raptors would offer Siakam or VanVleet a full supermax deal. Those contracts are typically reserved for franchise players, and Scottie Barnes may be on track to become that guy in Toronto.
It still makes sense for Siakam and VanVleet to wait to see if they become supermax eligible before they sign extensions. Meeting the performance criteria would give them a ton of extra leverage when they negotiate their next contracts, even if the Raptors aren’t willing to go the DVE route.
Both Siakam and VanVleet have two years left on their respective contracts, though VanVleet could reach unrestricted free agency in 2023, since his final year is a player option.
Brandon Ingram (Pelicans)
An All-Star in 2020, Ingram would need to take another big step forward to become a legitimate All-NBA candidate. And that won’t be easy if Zion Williamson‘s return and a full season of CJ McCollum cut into his scoring numbers.
As is the case with the Raptors and Siakam and VanVleet and the Celtics and Brown, it’s also unclear whether the Pelicans would be eager to put a supermax offer on the table for Ingram even if he qualifies, since he may not be the player the team is building around.
Still, Ingram – who has averaged at least 22.7 points per game in each of the last three seasons – is worth mentioning because he’d be eligible for a four-year supermax contract extension that begins in 2025-26 if he were to make an All-NBA team in 2023.