(Note: Eric won’t mention this, but his editors will — he just won the National Fantasy Basketball Championship’s Main Event — the toughest basketball league in the world. And this is the fourth time he’s won it. So there’s some context for what you’re about to read)
Whether you love it or hate it, the NBA’s play-in tournament is set to tip off. So here are my betting picks for all of the play-in games, as well as my picks for which teams will advance to the playoffs, which includes a couple of intriguing +600 (6-to-1) and +900 (9-to-1) wagers.
NBA play-in odds – Eastern Conference
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, as of 5pm ET on 5/17/21. If you want to place some wagers — and get a free year of The Athletic and $100 in free bets — there’s an NBA Playoffs special offer through this link.
No. 8 Washington Wizards vs. No. 7 Boston Celtics
Spread: Celtics -2.5
Over/under: 232.5
Money line: Celtics -140, Wizards +115
My picks: Wizards +2.5, Wizards +115
These two teams have been heading in opposite directions. The Celtics have lost 10 of their last 15 games to close out the season, while the Wizards are red-hot, winning 17 of their past 23 games. Boston is also very banged up, as All-Star Jaylen Brown is out for the season, and Robert Williams has been dealing with a lingering toe issue. In last year’s playoffs, Daniel Theis came up huge for the Celtics, but they traded him away a couple of months ago. All of these issues have me favoring the Wizards.
While Bradley Beal’s hamstring is less than 100% healthy, the fact that he was able to return from a three-game absence on Sunday to score 25 points should be very encouraging for Washington fans. He’ll be able to go toe-to-toe against his good friend Jayson Tatum, and it should result in an exciting matchup.
An x-factor to keep an eye on in this game is Rui Hachimura. The youngster is averaging 15.1 points per game on better than 49% shooting from the field since the All-Star break, but this will easily be his most pressure-packed game since joining the NBA.
If Brown were healthy, the Celtics may have used his length on defense to bother Russell Westbrook. But instead, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart are going to have their hands full with a seemingly possessed Westbrook, and I expect Russ to be the difference-maker.
No. 10 Charlotte Hornets vs. No. 9 Indiana Pacers
Spread: Pacers -3
Over/under: 227.5
Money line: Pacers -150, Hornets +125
My picks: Hornets +3, Hornets +125
Indiana had a strong start to the season, winning 11 of their first 18 games. Since then, they’ve lost 31 games against just 23 wins. Their defense has been terrible since the All-Star break, and no Myles Turner in the middle has made it much easier for opponents to attack the rim. But an even bigger issue is that Malcolm Brogdon has missed 10 games in a row because of a hamstring injury. Even if Brogdon plays on Tuesday, he won’t be close to 100% healthy.
Meanwhile, the Hornets are closer to full health, now that LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges are back in the lineup. Moreover, Charlotte is the much more cohesive team, and they’ve played with a lot of fight and passion all season long. And while Domantas Sabonis will pose a major problem for them, they have a couple of experienced veterans to throw at him, in Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo. I like the Hornets to pull off the upset here, as they keep their season alive.
Futures – Odds to make the playoffs after the play-in tournament
Boston Celtics: Yes -500, No +350
Charlotte Hornets: Yes +400, No -600
Indiana Pacers: Yes +350, No -500
Washington Wizards: Yes -450, No +325
My pick: Wizards yes -450
The duo of Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook have too much heart and experience to lose two games in a row in this play-in tournament, so I think they are the safest pick here. So even if they lose to the Celtics on a buzzer-beater by Tatum, I expect them to win their next game, and advance to the playoffs.
Futures – Eastern Conference qualifiers
Celtics and Wizards: -250
Celtics and Pacers: +700
Celtics and Hornets: +800
Wizards and Pacers: +800
Wizards and Hornets: +900 +375
My picks: Celtics and Wizards -250, Wizards and Hornets +375
I think betting on both the Wizards and Hornets to advance at +375 odds is a very strong wager, and you could be looking at a decent payout if you agree. That being said, both Beal and Tatum are talented enough to carry their teams to victory in the elimination game, which is why the oddsmakers are making that the most likely scenario.
NBA play-in odds – Western Conference
No. 8 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
Spread: Lakers -4.5
Over/under: 219.5
Money line: Lakers -190, Warriors +155
My pick: Under 219.5
The Lakers should definitely be favored to win this game, but LeBron tweaking his right ankle on Sunday is enough cause for concern for me to avoid betting on them to cover this spread, or on the -190 money line. That said, I won’t be betting on the Warriors for this game either.
However, both teams totaling under 219.5 points seems like a solid bet. The Lakers will have a serious size advantage in this matchup, so they’ll look to slow down the tempo and to punish the Warriors in the paint. They’ll also do everything they can to double-team Stephen Curry and to force the ball out of his hands.
No. 10 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 9 Memphis Grizzlies
Spread: Grizzlies -3.5
Over/under: 221.5
Money line: Grizzlies -160, Spurs +135
My picks: Grizzlies -160, Over 221.5
I don’t give the Spurs much of a chance to win this game. They lost 10 of their last 12 games to close out the season, while allowing 121.2 points per game over that span. Moreover, they made less than 32% of their 3-pointers over those 12 games, while opponents shot 39% from behind the 3-point arc. Losing Derrick White due to an ankle injury was a major blow to San Antonio, and youngsters Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell have struggled to step up on the offensive end.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have boasted impressive depth all season long, and a healthy Jaren Jackson Jr. makes them more dynamic on both ends of the floor. Memphis averaged 127.0 points per game against the Spurs in their three regular season meetings, and they scored 114.7 points per game after the All-Star break, compared to 111.6 points per game before that.
After getting knocked out of last year’s playoffs during the play-in games, the Grizzlies are hungry for redemption. Look for Jonas Valanciunas to dominate the boards, Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson to put forth valiant efforts defending DeMar DeRozan, and for Ja Morant to prove to fans that he’s ready to be considered a true superstar.
Odds to make the playoffs after the play-in tournament
Los Angeles Lakers: Yes -2000, No +900
Golden State Warriors: Yes -550, No +375
Memphis Grizzlies: Yes +375, No -550
San Antonio Spurs: Yes +600, No -1000
My picks: Lakers yes -2000, Warriors yes -550, Spurs no -1000
If you have plenty of cash in your account, then it makes sense to wager on the Lakers to advance to the playoffs, and for the Spurs to miss out on the postseason. That’s because there should be a greater than 95% chance for the Lakers to win at least one of the next two games, and for San Antonio to not pull off two upsets in a row. You could bet on the Warriors to make the playoffs as well, but rather than choosing -550 odds, you could get -350 odds with a similar bet, as shown below.
Western Conference qualifiers
Lakers and Warriors: -350
Lakers and Grizzlies: +600
Lakers and Spurs: +950
Warriors and Grizzlies: +1100
Warriors and Spurs: +1600
My picks: Lakers and Warriors -350, Lakers and Grizzlies +600
If you agree that the Spurs are not going to win two games in a row this week, and that the Lakers are not going to lose two games in a row this week, then there are only two wagers to be made here. I definitely like betting on the Lakers and Warriors to be the two qualifiers here at -350 odds, and I won’t be surprised if this line moves closer to -500 before the play-in games begin.
That being said, if the Lakers beat the Warriors, and the Grizzlies take care of business against the Spurs, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Memphis pull off the upset over Golden State. The Dubs won this matchup on Sunday, but Valanciunas destroyed them in the paint, and Memphis shot just 6-of-25 from 3-point range. So if they can make a few more threes, and Curry isn’t red-hot again the next time they play, Memphis could reward those who are willing to wager on them.
(Top photo: Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)
