NBA picks today, odds: Expert selections for Nets-Bucks and Suns-Nuggets

Every day during the NBA Playoffs, The Athletic’s NBA writers will make their picks straight up. We put our picks and all series coverage, plus the latest odds, all in one place for fans to easily digest and follow. Our in-depth coverage from every team is linked below the picks. If you’d like a free year of The Athletic (or an extension!), BetMGM is running a special offer, which also includes $100 in bonus bets.

Game 4 – Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks (+2)
Total: 228.5

GAME 3: BUCKS 86, NETS 83

Series: Nets lead 2-1

Considering Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo each outscored the Brooklyn Nets in the first quarter with 15 points apiece to the Nets’ 11 total as a team, it looked like the Milwaukee Bucks would roll. That’s not what happened. After the first quarter, the Nets made the game ugly and waited patiently for Kevin Durant’s jumper to come around. Over the next three quarters, the Nets outscored the Bucks 72-56, but most of that margin manifested in the second quarter. Bruce Brown made floaters to get the Nets going, and Blake Griffin defended extremely well. As Durant caught fire, the Bucks were sent scrambling a bit to find some offense. It wasn’t until late in the fourth quarter that Middleton was able to start matching Durant shot for shot after both teams went over three minutes in the middle of the quarter without getting a single point. Middleton scored eight of the Bucks’ final 10 points to bring his total to 35 on the night. All of those Brown floaters the Nets were surviving off all night stopped falling. He even missed a wild driving layup thanks to some Brook Lopez defense with the Nets down one in the final seconds, after a panicked inbound possession. Middleton knocked down two free throws and then Durant missed a desperation running 3-point shot with P.J. Tucker defending him perfectly. The Bucks were so close to going down 0-3 in the series and instead have new life breathed into them thanks to a gritty, gutty win. Durant finished with 30 points, and Giannis finished with 33. Both teams shot under 38 percent from the field.

Game 4  – Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets (+3)
Total: 221.5

GAME 3: SUNS 116, NUGGETS 102

Series: Suns lead 3-0

One more game and the last remaining bubble team will be claimed. Or so it seems. The Phoenix Suns handled the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 in Denver, despite Nikola Jokic putting up a historic 32 point, 20-rebound and 10-assists line. Despite the cool numbers, the Nuggets got waxed. Jokic and his teammates didn’t really play defense in the game. His teammates didn’t do much of anything to help him out. He scored more points than the other four starters combined (30). Aaron Gordon, the trade deadline acquisition who was supposed to put them over the top before Jamal Murray got hurt? He had four points, two made shots and four turnovers. Michael Porter Jr., the wunderkind scorer getting Klay Thompson comparisons last round? 15 points on 13 shots, and he’ll be having Mikal Bridges nightmares for months after this series. Monte Morris and Will Barton showed fight off the bench, but a game after Michael Malone accused his team of quitting, we saw them jogging up and down the court with their season damn near on the line. Devin B0oker and Chris Paul cooked Denver all night, combining for 55 points on 39 shots. The Suns are by far the better team. They’re the healthier team. And they’re playing much harder. Maybe the Nuggets avoid a sweep on Sunday when Game 4 happens, but this goose seems to be cooked after Friday.

NBA Playoffs