Basketball

NBA future odds: How Kyrie Irving trade lifts Mavericks and what other teams could rise at deadline



The NBA trade deadline is Thursday, which always means drama and entertainment. It continues to be fascinating for a number of reasons.

One such, which may only be interesting (and slightly funny) to me, is how most of the eventual deals don’t ever happen until the hour(s) before the cut-off time. I understand that teams are likely using all of their available time to leverage or get the best possible value out of their transaction. But y’all couldn’t have gotten these deals done during any other time in the four prior months?

On a more serious note, the fascinating part of this time of year is how players respond to the noise surrounding them. Players familiar with the noise, like Atlanta’s John Collins and Indiana’s Myles Turner, might grow immune to it over time. But in this next section, I want to shift my focus toward a couple of guys who are new to this midseason trade deadline stuff.

Trade deadline newbies

Chris PaulPhoenix Suns

According to The Athletic’s Shams Charania, the Suns offered Chris Paul to the Brooklyn Nets before Joe Tsai and co. accepted the Dallas Mavericks’ deal for Kyrie Irving. And it’s not the first time Paul, a future Hall of Fame point guard, has been a part of trade discussions. He’s been traded four times throughout his NBA career, but it’s usually been on his time and during the offseason — think New Orleans to Los Angeles and Los Angeles to Houston.

Who knows how much knowledge of the proposed deal CP3 had this time around, but I’m genuinely curious to see how this week plays out for him as he (and the Suns) has found his groove upon returning from a hip injury. Charania mentions that Phoenix is still “expected to be incredibly active” this week while mentioning Paul’s uncertain future with the team. Does Phoenix still pursue trades with him attached? Does any of this change the locker room dynamic? We’ll see.

Fred VanVleetToronto Raptors

Being in trade discussions isn’t always a bad thing, however. Some players can use it as fuel to play better and drive up their value before a move is made. Whether or not that is the motivating factor behind Fred VanVleet’s recent stretch of games is unknown, but his return to form over the past weeks has been loud enough for all of us to notice. Games 1-36 of his season weren’t anything to write about, as VanVleet’s individual struggles coincided with Toronto’s. His last 10 games, though, have resembled those of his 2021-22 All-Star season. Since mid-January, VanVleet is averaging 26.0 points, 7.5 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 1.6 steals on 45.6/39.8/94.0 shooting splits.

Now that VanVleet seems to have left behind the woeful shooting that plagued him throughout the first half of the season, more questions might have arisen than before. Are the Raptors now in a position where they could feasibly ask for more in potential trade packages? Is Toronto more motivated to keep and pay VanVleet this offseason instead of trading him now?

It doesn’t seem as though there’s necessarily a right or wrong answer for any of the proposed questions, but we’ll get some answers by the end of Thursday.

Odds movement and timing up your bets

I think it’s safe to assume we’re all expecting at least a little bit of movement this week across the league, and the movement I’m referring to isn’t only reserved for completed trades. Rumors alone have caused some odds to move at sportsbooks, such as when the thought of Irving potentially being traded to the Lakers last week moved Los Angeles’ title odds way up but then back down following Irving’s trade to Dallas. Of course, the completion of that trade has now taken the Mavericks’ title odds from +2500 (pre-trade) to +1400 (post-trade), with the pairing of Luka Dončić and Irving appearing to attract bettors.

But the above scenarios — both the assumed trade and the actual trade — lead to the bigger point: betting is all about timing. Before the deadline’s completion, here are a couple of teams with futures you should consider betting on.

New Orleans Pelicans

It’s not too late in the season for the Pelicans to make up ground and catch the Memphis Grizzlies in the race for the Southwest Division title. Still, given how little time is left before the regular season concludes, I wouldn’t recommend betting much money on it happening. However, New Orleans won’t be operating against a time limit once the postseason begins. And should the Pels be healthy at that time, their roster would be good enough to beat anyone out West.

We’re not too far removed from the Pelicans making a run down the stretch of last season to clinch a postseason spot and giving the No. 1 seed a run for its money. And that was without the services of Zion Williamson. They entered this season with momentum and lofty expectations. They’ll be even more dangerous after Williamson returns from his latest injury to accumulate at least a little more cohesion with Brandon Ingram recently back. Ingram has only played in 20 of New Orleans’ 55 games thus far.

The Pels could swing big at the deadline (most would suggest trying to deal for Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant). But even a smaller move or two around the fringes would help — something that rivals last season’s acquisition of Larry Nance Jr., which has allowed coach Willie Green to unlock some smaller units that present issues for other teams on both ends of the court. Whatever they end up doing, I believe they’re going to be one of the last few teams standing out West assuming health isn’t an issue, and getting in on their +1200 odds to win the conference seems like a good idea.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Let’s break down the East right quick.

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks are undeniably the East’s cream of the crop, regardless of whether you base that claim on those teams’ retained talent from their recent Eastern Conference championships (and Milwaukee’s NBA championship) or by literally taking a look at the current standings. Philadelphia and Cleveland are in the next tier, with the Sixers knocking on the door of that top tier.

After that, there arguably isn’t any other team close to those four. Brooklyn is still unknown until we know what its roster looks like after Thursday, and Miami doesn’t appear capable of a repeat trip back to the conference finals as currently constructed.

So, if you consider the Cavs a top-4 Eastern Conference team, wouldn’t it make sense to bet on their +900 odds to get out of the East and make it to the NBA Finals?

They aren’t peaking at this moment or having the same success they had when beginning this season with an 8-1 record. But we know that the addition of Donovan Mitchell makes the Cavaliers a better team than last season, even before injuries did a number on them. They haven’t yet lost to Boston (2-0) or Philadelphia (1-0) this season, though Milwaukee has presented some issues for Cleveland (1-2).

But given how the Cavs have fared against the most likely teams that would stand in their way of a conference championship, a trade deadline move to shore up the starting small forward spot could move the needle. Cleveland is thin on assets thanks to the trade for Mitchell, so it’ll have to get creative to make potentially impactful moves this week. I’d take my chances, though, given their 9-to-1 odds.

Will there be another move as big as Kyrie to Dallas?

The Brooklyn-Dallas swap was significant for several reasons. For one, it officially ends the huge Nets gamble back in the summer of 2019 before later going even more all-in on when acquiring James Harden from the Houston Rockets. But also significant for the Dallas Mavericks to finally land Dončić another proven, elite running mate. Debates can be had about Irving’s actual superstar status at this point in his career, considering how everything has played out since leaving Cleveland. Still, his play this season has resembled that of an All-NBA player and should fit perfectly into how the Mavericks like to operate on offense.

Will any trade at this deadline be as loud as Irving’s move to Dallas? As I mentioned earlier, the Chris Paul and Fred VanVleet stuff will be intriguing to watch play out, and perhaps Toronto has a fire sale. What about Kevin Durant? Is Chicago hanging on to Zach LaVine? There’s lots of news to pay attention to over the next 48 hours, so make sure you turn those tweet notifications on.

(Photo of Kyrie Irving: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)





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