The draft is one of the happiest days of the NBA year. For those selected and their families, it is an intensely joyous occasion, the culmination of a literal lifetime of hard work. Teams are optimistically turning the page from the just-completed season with their best-laid plans undisturbed by the intrusion realities of free agency. Fans have fully invested their hopes and dreams in their teams’ new additions. Everyone is undefeated and ready to build on wherever the last campaign left them. Smiles abound.
And I’m here to rain on all of that.
To some degree, this is a manifestation of natural contrarianism. But it’s also a recognition that for all of draft day’s enthusiasm, many more players will disappoint than will hit the lofty projections made for them. While having an eye on upside is useful for the evaluator and vital for the fan, it is equally important to retain contact with the underlying realities. Here are a few rules and mental reminders I try to keep in mind to keep from getting swept up in the tide of exuberance.
Short the class — every class — as a whole
There are 60 selections in every draft class. I would argue that in most years, there are far fewer open spots in rotations around the league that are (productively) filled by players who weren’t productive the previous season. It’s a math problem for which there is no hack to get around. Of those 60 players, around 20 will have meaningfully impactful careers.
