Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals was definitely interesting. The Mavericks won but not in a way that makes you think they are really going to extend the series much longer.
It finished as a 10-point win for the Mavs (with a cover – I said to take them on the ML) but the Warriors had a furious late comeback in the 4th quarter, showing some fight and giving their reserves some run.
Prior to that Golden State looked like a team that didn’t care whether they got a sweep or not. It is just hard to keep up that high level of intensity when you are up 3-0.
The markets are definitely saying that tonight the Warriors are going to complete the “gentleman’s sweep” at home and advance to the NBA Finals. It is hard to disagree.
Game Info
Dallas Mavericks (1-3) vs. Golden State Warriors (3-1)
Thursday, May 26, 2022
9:00 PM ET
Chase Center, San Francisco, California
TNT
Betting Odds
Spread: Mavericks +7 (-110), Warriors -7 (-110)
Total: 215.5
Moneyline: Mavericks +245, Warriors -295
Best Bet
Golden State -7
I am not loving the lines for this series ending (hint) game tonight.
I do think the Warriors are going to win and advance but Dallas has been a scrappy group all season long, so the number is a little worrisome.
In the Game 4 win, the Mavericks finally started making shots. Reggie Bullock made six of 10 from behind the arc and Maxi Kleber made two of three after both missed all of their attempts in Game 3. I would expect their production to be more “normal” on the road and for the Warriors’ attention to detail to be that much greater at both ends.
If you look at the Game 4 results from afar you see a pretty clean game where both teams had just eight turnovers. It simply came down to who made more shots and that team was Dallas for the first time in the series.
If this were a 2-3-2 format I would probably be on Dallas to win again, but with the venue changing I just don’t trust the likes of Bullock, Kleber, and others to keep up their shooting. Neither is Danny Green or Robert Horry with a history of big-shot-making in the playoffs in their career.
I am looking at this game as being very similar to Golden State’s Game 2 win, which was by nine points. In that one, Luka Doncic scored 42 points and Jalen Brunson added 31 but the Mavs still came up well short.
The Warriors shot it well that game, putting continued game pressure on the Mavs to keep up, and they just don’t have the depth to win like that. For Dallas to win they need to hold the Warriors under 110 points and I just don’t see that happening with Golden State reinvigorated by the Game 4 loss.
With Golden State, this is a pattern we have seen before. It is not about turning the switch “on and off” but they lose some focus where there isn’t a true level of urgency.
Look for Golden State to win comfortably and close the series.
Score guess…118-107.
