When the NFL media at large was projecting how Justin Herbert would fare in his sophomore season, a big point of emphasis was third-down efficiency. Generally, quarterback performance on third down is not a very consistent statistic from season to season. The numbers are volatile and fluctuate pretty significantly.
Herbert led the league in third-down dropbacks in 2020 as a rookie. Despite that high volume — largely the result of one of the lowest first-down success rates in the NFL — Herbert ranked seventh among starting quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback, according to TruMedia.
In the offseason, the word “regression” was thrown around because many believed — or at least posed the possibility — that this level of third-down production was not sustainable.
Through five games, Herbert is answering those doubts. He has actually been better on third down this season than he was as a rookie. He is averaging 0.36 EPA/dropback in 2021 compared to 0.18 in 2020. And his relative volume has not changed. Herbert is tied for third in the league with 60 third-down dropbacks, putting him on the same pace he was on last season with he had 180 third-down dropbacks in 15 starts. (Ideally, this rate would drop as the season progresses, but the Chargers, right now, are a middling early-down offense.)
Five games is a relatively small sample. So I am not going to proclaim that Herbert has proven his third-down efficiency to be sustainable. But on tape, Herbert has shown a special ability to create both within and outside the structure of the offense on third downs. And this also extends to fourth downs. Herbert is averaging 0.
