Few American highschoolers believe U.S. colleges are the best in the world.
What becomes of U.S. higher education when the country’s own high school students doubt its value compared to foreign colleges and universities? That is the startling new question raised by a recent survey of 1,000 10th-12th graders in the U.S. Despite nearly two-thirds of the world’s top 25 ranked universities being U.S. institutions, it hasn’t done much to convince American highschoolers. Only 7% ‘agree completely’ that U.S. colleges are the best in the world; another 20% ‘agree somewhat.’ These new findings from research I led at Kaplan add to a compounding set of financial, demographic and public perception issues facing higher education and raise a number of potential implications for its place in the global market.
U.S. higher education has long been the envy of the world. Just over 1 million international students are currently enrolled in American colleges and universities. But there has been recent slippage as international student enrollments in the U.S. are down for the second consecutive year. Meanwhile, international student enrollments in Canada and Australia have been up – indicating there is still growth in the overall market of students studying in foreign countries. The U.S. is a current outlier in the wrong direction and there are a mix of potentially short-term factors contributing to this including geopolitical issues and concerns over immigration policy.
Despite these headwinds there is still strong and steady demand for U.S. higher education from abroad. And although the numbers are down overall, there’s great variability at an institutional level with some universities achieving solid growth and others experiencing steep declines. Who knows what the longer term trends might be on these fronts, but there are at least a couple clear and more lasting signs that things could get worse for U.S. higher education before they get better.
First, the price competitiveness of U.S. higher education is a growing issue in the global marketplace as many world-ranked universities from other countries have far lower international student tuition rates than their comparatively-ranked peers in the U.S. Second, the U.S. domestic college-going age population is projected to crash between 2025 and 2030, making it especially disconcerting to see the added pessimism about higher education among current American high school students. It’s unclear how much this pessimism might translate into these students (and their parents) seeking alternative college and career pathways. But there is most definitely an appetite for alternatives.
Based on previous Kaplan studies, there is considerable demand among parents for options that allow their kids to go straight to work for an employer who offers to support their college degree. Many of these programs would be pursued online, further hurting institutions that are primarily residential. There is also considerable evidence of U.S. parents’ interest in sending their children to universities in other countries. For example, Kaplan research indicates that 19% of parents ‘definitely would consider’ sending their child to the U.K. for their bachelor’s degree (not just a semester).
U.S. parents share the same overall skepticism about American higher education as highschoolers do; only 14% ‘agree completely’ that U.S. colleges are the best in the world. (Granted, that’s double the rate of highschoolers who feel the same – but it’s still not a reassuringly confident percentage.) With forecasts suggesting massive growth in the global middle-class population adding approximately 2 billion people by 2030, there will most certainly be surging demand for higher education. The question will not just be whether U.S. higher education remains competitive for students globally, but also whether it can remain so for its own citizens.
