If 2024 Panini Prizm cards end up being the final edition with NFL licensing, this quarterback draft class might not be the worst way to go out.
At least three of the six passers selected within the top 12 picks seem like viable NFL quarterbacks. Two of them reside on potential playoff teams. The third might give the New England Patriots their most legitimate long-term solution since Tom Brady.
Despite some turmoil, the No. 1 pick doesn’t feel like a lost cause. And the other two quarterbacks not playing yet at least sign autographs for the company and provide hope down the line for their respective teams.
Now for the rest of the quarterback hungry hobby, the hope in the next couple of months has to be anyone but Patrick Mahomes to win the Super Bowl. Well, almost anyone (sorry, Jared Goff).
Mahomes’ market feels set for life at this point. Does he really need another Super Bowl ring to thrill his collectors? Absolutely not. The Chiefs feel as susceptible as ever to be overtaken within the NFL, and even AFC hierarchy. Meaning some other quarterback’s card market could be in for a ride.
Here’s a glimpse at the quarterback landscape from a collectibles standpoint heading into the back stretch of the NFL regular season:
2024 rookie class
It might feel like a Hail Mary if you haul in a Jayden Daniels card at this point.
He’s easily one of the biggest names across the hobby in all sports currently. Daniels was the most searched quarterback in eBay’s collectibles category globally in October. I can’t envision that changing in November given how he’s revived the Washington Commanders.
He’s not only the most productive quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft class so far, he’s one of the better signal callers in general this season. Here’s a look at where Daniels and the rest of the passers stack up within these categories (via TruMedia):
- Expected Points Added per dropback
- Passer rating
- Total QB EPA
- Completion percentage
- Third-down passing conversion percentage
| Player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA | Comp% | 3PsCv% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
0.20 (4) |
99.6 (11) |
65.5 (6) |
68.7 (9) |
35.6 (17) |
|
|
0.04 (18) |
87.5 (26) |
8.2 (17) |
66.8 (15) |
31.6 (26) |
|
|
-0.04 (26) |
89.3 (21) |
-15.6 (28) |
65.5 (22) |
34.2 (21) |
|
|
-0.10 (31) |
82.3 (29) |
-39.3 (34) |
61.8 (31) |
28.4 (30) |
The stats, name recognition and hype surrounding the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner from LSU adds up to why Daniels stands as the heavy favorite for the league offensive rookie of the year award (via BetMGM):
A quick look at recent sales from each player’s non-graded 2023 Panini Select XRC (“extended rookie card” — a redemption that predates flagship set rookie cards), via Card Ladder, which tracks sales across major online marketplaces:
Who’s been the best of the four lately, though? Nix.
Here’s a glimpse at how the four rookie starters stack up to the rest of the league over the past four weeks:
| player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA | Comp% | 3PsCv% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
0.17 (10) |
114.5 (5) |
24.2 (9) |
72.9 (3) |
54.8 (3) |
|
|
0.09 (17) |
89.6 (20) |
2.5 (21) |
59.5 (28) |
29.7 (27) |
|
|
0.08 (18) |
82.3 (25) |
10.5 (15) |
68.8 (14) |
32.3 (23) |
|
|
-0.20 (32) |
72.2 (34) |
-31.8 (34) |
56.3 (32) |
20.9 (32) |
Nix went from historically poor numbers for a rookie starter in his first few games with the Broncos to challenging Daniels for ROY. Collectors and dealers win if Nix can continue his steady improvement.
As for Maye, I’m anticipating a sharp rise in value for his cards.
The 2024 No. 3 pick finished October as the fifth most searched quarterback on eBay. He’s the driving reason for any sort of positivity for the Patriots. In two of his last three starts, he’s produced an EPA per dropback rate of at least 0.23 (which is an elite rate for an entire season) and passer ratings between 100.0 and 110.0 (Pro Bowl/elite level).
The concern comes with Williams. The Bears once again aren’t handling the offense well, having fired their offensive coordinator midway through Williams’ rookie season. The 2024 No. 1 pick doesn’t look inept like Bryce Young did initially, but it’s fair to be leery about investing in Williams right now, given the lack of direction.
The wild part of this portion is how none of them sign autographs for licensed products with Panini. All four sign for Topps products, which are unlicensed NFL cards, meaning none of the cards possess team names and logos.
As for the other two quarterbacks taken among April’s top 12 picks, the Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. and the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy aren’t playing yet, but bear autographed cards in Panini products. Obviously those rookie cards and autos should be viewed as longer-term interests.
MVP candidates
Winning the MVP award would be an amazing feat for Josh Allen or Jared Goff. And a third MVP for Lamar Jackson would put him in some exclusive company in league history. At least Allen, Jackson and Goff seem to be staving off Mahomes for now:
Still, I’m not sold an MVP award would make any long-term difference for a hobby bump. Jackson’s market never skyrocketed when he captured his second MVP last year. That’s because he won the award the week leading up to Super Bowl LVIII, a game he didn’t participate in thanks to Mahomes and the Chiefs.
None of these contenders will leap until they win a Super Bowl, and markets for Allen or Jackson would likely benefit the most since their cards hold the highest value among the legitimate contenders. Until then, there doesn’t seem to be a reason for anyone’s market to improve substantially for the long haul.
Only one active quarterback has slayed the Mahomes dragon in the postseason: Joe Burrow. That’s only part of why he etched out his own section in this story.
Plus, he’s having his best season through 11 weeks in EPA per dropback (0.16), total QB EPA (72.0) and passer rating (106.9).
Unfortunately for the Bengals’ No. 9, he’s running through a cycle I witnessed firsthand for another No. 9 with Louisiana ties. Nearly half of Drew Brees’ career with the Saints fell flat thanks to a porous, and sometimes awful defense. Burrow has endured the same fate in 2024, producing incredible offensive numbers only to be let down by a defense surrendering even bigger numbers to the Bengals’ opponents.
Where will this leave his card market? We’re nearly three full seasons removed from Burrow appearing in a Super Bowl and nearly two full seasons past his last appearance in an AFC Championship game. As his team drifts further away from a Super Bowl each year, you have to wonder how much longer will the hobby hold confidence in Burrow.
2023 rookie class
There’s no denying interest remains high for C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. The Texans and Colts second-year players ranked No. 2 and No. 4, respectively, among searched quarterbacks within eBay in October.
Top 5 QB searches on eBay in October:
1. Jayden Daniels
2. C.J. Stroud
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. Anthony Richardson
5. Drake Maye
Texans fans probably aren’t complaining a ton given Houston leads the AFC South at 7-4, and appears en route to a second straight division title. Year two for Stroud, though, lacks the same crispness as his standout rookie campaign. Maybe it’s because of injuries to star wide receivers Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Maybe it’s something else.
Here’s a side-by-side comparison from his first two seasons through 11 weeks:
| Year | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA | Comp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2023 |
0.15 (6) |
99.3 (8) |
54.0 (5) |
62.8 (24) |
|
2024 |
-0.00 (23) |
88.0 (24) |
-4.8 (24) |
63.4 (28) |
Stroud’s 2023 Panini Prizm silver rookie card with a PSA 10 gem-mint grade sold between $426 and $480 on Nov. 19. Two months ago, this card sold for as much as $957 on Sept. 15.
Richardson’s temporary removal as the Colts’ starter a few weeks ago at least brought positive results. He easily played his best game of his young career in the Colts’ Week 11 win over the Jets with career highs in EPA per dropback (0.24), total QB EPA (10.3) and passer rating (106.5). Plus, he produced the highest completion percentage (66.7 percent) of his career in games where he dropped back at least 20 times.
Still, one week doesn’t wipe away the fact he’s last in the league in passer rating (66.2) and completion percentage (48.5 percent).
Richardson’s 2023 Panini Prizm silver rookie card with a PSA 10 grade sold for $110 on eBay on Oct. 31. Prices have moved up a bit since Richardson reassumed the starting role for a card selling for $205 on Nov. 19. Two months ago, the card sold as high as $646 on Sept. 11.
As for Young and Will Levis, I can’t take either one seriously within the hobby until they escape the 2024 statistical basement.
| player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA | Comp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-0.16 (33) |
80.5 (31) |
-35.6 (32) |
65.9 (21) |
|
|
-0.24 (35) |
66.9 (35) |
-43.0 (35) |
60.1 (34) |
Playoff hopefuls
At least varying degrees of postseason hope remain for several notable quarterbacks with varying degrees of hobby appeal: Sam Darnold, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, and Tua Tagovailoa.
Here’s where all these quarterbacks reside within on-field production this season:
| player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA | Comp% | EPA/Blitz |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
0.24 (3) |
101.5 (8) |
44.8 (10) |
73.4 (1) |
0.37 (4) |
|
|
0.18 (5) |
95.9 (14) |
69.9 (5) |
66.0 (20) |
0.13 (14) |
|
|
0.13 (9) |
100.8 (9) |
36.0 (11) |
69.2 (5) |
-0.06 (23) |
|
|
0.11 (11) |
103.6 (5) |
47.9 (8) |
70.6 (3) |
0.17 (12) |
|
|
0.10 (12) |
101.8 (7) |
48.7 (7) |
69.2 (6) |
0.27 (8) |
|
|
0.06 (15) |
102.1 (6) |
15.4 (15) |
63.5 (25) |
0.18 (11) |
|
|
0.05 (16) |
90.6 (19) |
11.0 (16) |
62.3 (30) |
-0.42 (36) |
|
|
0.03 (20) |
100.0 (10) |
-1.4 (22) |
67.9 (11) |
0.22 (9) |
Of all these quarterbacks, it seems like Herbert’s market would be the one to benefit most if the Los Angeles Chargers could pull off any sort of postseason success. Even if the success would be as little as one playoff win, since the Chargers have never accomplished that with Herbert under center.
Among Hurts, Love and Purdy, the Eagles seem like the team most likely to challenge the Lions in the NFC. Part of that is because of Hurts, but the majority of my reasoning comes from the existence of Saquon Barkley and the emergence of the Eagles defense.
Are we ready to take teams led by Darnold or Murray, if the Vikings and/or Cardinals make the playoffs, seriously? I’m not.
Mayfield and Tagovailoa seem like the longest shots for their teams to make the postseason, but it’s not impossible with the Buccaneers and Dolphins playing schedules bearing plenty of winnable games.
GO DEEPER
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