In midterm elections, when turnout tends to be limited to more motivated voters, rain has no observable effect. And in any case, a weather event would have to be “fairly sizable” to shift turnout in any measurable way, he said.
“Most of the uncertainty is not related to nature, it’s man-made things,” he said. “I’m more curious about what the judges and election officials will do than what the voters will do.”
October snow is not unusual in the Northeast, but it rarely accumulates to a measurable depth. Nine years ago, a blockbuster Oct. 29 storm deposited 20 inches, an event that is remembered as “Snowtober.”
On Friday, a cold front moving south from Canada encountered the moist remnants of Hurricane Zeta, turning a heavy rain into powdery, dry snow that will build up on grassy surfaces, said Rodney Chai, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service near Boston.
Roads may be slushy and wet through the day, but the earth has grown so warm over the summer months that snow will not accumulate on pavement, he said. Temperatures are expected to rise to around 50 degrees on Sunday, and any remaining snow will melt.
Friday’s snow will last until then in part because it is fluffy, Mr. Chai said.
“When the snow has a ‘fluff factor,’ because of air spaces in between the flakes, it can accumulate more effectively,” he said. With higher temperatures, “the dendrites lose their shape a little, they become rounder.”
And the predictions for Tuesday? Chilly and clear in New England.
“I cannot comment about implications on turnout, but I can tell you that the weather is going to be cold and dry,” Mr. Chai said. “We provide the public with weather information. We don’t speculate on the implications.”
