It Is Almost As If We Are Firebombing College Towns With Covid-19

College towns are the new front lines in the Covid-19 pandemic. This week, the New York Times reported that those counties across our nation which host colleges and universities are experiencing peak numbers of new infections right now. The good news is that there has been no corresponding uptick in deaths so far, most likely due to the belief that younger people — including college students — are far less likely to die than older people. What happens, however, if and when those infections begin to seep out into the communities that host these institutions of higher learning?

Scientists have been moving away from “wave” theories regarding the Covid-19 pandemic and toward analogies that more resemble forest fires. In a Scientific American interview, for example, University of Chicago epidemiologist Sarah Cobey stated “what we are seeing is a massive epidemic that could burn through the population rapidly unless we do something to slow transmission.”  Similarly, University of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm told Business Insider that “there’s no evidence there’s going to be a decrease in cases, a trough. It’s just going to keep burning hot, kind of like a forest fire looking for human wood to burn.”

Similar to the New York Times article described above, a report published by USA Today notes that 19 out of the 25 largest current outbreaks of Covid-19 cases are in college towns spread throughout the country. The hottest outbreak is Harrisonburg, Virginia, home of James Madison University, which began regular classes in late August before reverting to fully online instruction. Second on the list of hot spots is Whitman County, Washington, the location of Washington State University and its host community, Pullman, despite the fact that students have not been able to take classes in-person as yet.

Other locations in the top 5 include municipalities hosting Central Texas College, Georgia Southern University, and Iowa State University. In this last location — Story County and the city of Ames, Iowa — the infection rates now seem to indicate that the coronavirus is moving into the community. The chair of the Story County Board of Heath, pediatrician John Paschen, was sounding the alarm regarding a rise in cases for people 45 years or older. “What I’m really afraid of is we’re going to have another episode where it gets into a nursing home, and a lot of people die,” Dr. Paschen said.

If the wildfire analogy holds, then the situation in Iowa and elsewhere may be the functional equivalent of someone throwing fresh tinder on viral fires that are smoldering across the country’s college towns. As students begin to congregate in classrooms, residence halls, bars, and house parties, inevitably there will be greater rates of transmission. And as as those same students come into contact with community members, the “fast-burn scenario with peaks and valleys in different locations at different times” described by Dr. Osterholm becomes a reality for the citizens of our nation’s college towns. Many of these municipalities already have been readying themselves for the economic hardship ahead. Unfortunately, leaders of these towns and cities now must also prepare themselves for a flare-up in infection rates and the inevitable deaths that will occur among their most vulnerable residents.