Transportation

Investors, There Has Been A Market Pattern Since The Year 2000.


The Dow Jones Transportation Average (.DJT) continues to set new all-time intraday highs. Monday’s high was 15,676.51. The S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) set their all-time intraday highs of 4,218.78 and 14,211.57, respectively, last Thursday, April 29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) peaked at 34,256.75 on April 16. The Russell 2000 Index (.RUT) traded as high as 2,360.17 on March 15.

There has been a pattern since the year 2000 that should be discussed:

As the year 2000 began, the Dow 30 peaked first on January 14. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 peaked in March. Dow transports did not peak until January 5, 2001.

In 2007 – 2008, the Russell 2000 peaked first in July 2007. The Dow 30 and S&P 500 peaked in October 2007. The Nasdaq peaked in November 2007. Dow transports did not peak until May 2008.

In 2021, the Russell 2000 peaked on March 15, the Dow 30 peaked on April 16, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq peaked on April 29, and Dow transports peaked on May 3.

Dow transports has been the last to peak in the three bull markets since the year 2000.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (33,869) has a positive but overbought weekly chart. The average is above its five-week modified moving average at 33,354.44. Its 12-week slow stochastic reading is 93.60, which puts the average into an inflating parabolic bubble formation. The Dow 30 is above its annual, semiannual and quarterly pivots at 33,425, 32,645 and 30,546.

The S&P 500 (4,137.96) has a positive but overbought weekly chart. The average is above its five-week modified moving average at 4,079.71. Its 12-week slow stochastic reading is 95.31, which puts the average into an inflating parabolic bubble formation. The S&P 500 is above its annual, semiannual, and quarterly pivots at 3,932.35, 3,784.99, and 3,809.82.

The Nasdaq Composite (13,537.44) has a neutral weekly chart. The index is below its five-week modified moving average at 13,666.99. Its 12-week slow stochastic reading is rising at 78.93. The Nasdaq is above its annual, semiannual and quarterly pivots at 12,000.71, 12,395.45 and 13,001.03.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (15,528.75) has a positive but overbought weekly chart. The average is above its five-week modified moving average at 14,801.98. Its 12-week slow stochastic reading is 96.44, which puts the average into an inflating parabolic bubble formation. The Dow transports is above its annual, semiannual and quarterly pivots at 14,424.55, 12,120.82 and 12,176.78.

The Russell 2000 Index (2,234.75) has a negative weekly chart. The index is below its five-week modified moving average at 2,244.62. Its 12-week slow stochastic reading is declining at 66.70. The small-cap index is above its annual, semiannual and quarterly pivots at 2,120.34, 1,880.34 and 1,855.03.

Here’s today’s scorecard:



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