How Community Colleges Can Stop COVID-19’s Enrollment Plunge

This week, the National Student Clearinghouse reported a 7.5 percent decline in enrollment in community colleges. This surprised many in higher education, as times of economic downturn typically drive enrollment increases in community colleges as people have more time to engage in education and are more motivated to prepare for more stable careers in a down economy. This doesn’t appear to be the case with the economic downturn caused by Covid-19 — at least, not yet.

Longstanding research into consumer perspectives and experiences with higher education help explain why this is the case. 

When asked how Covid-19 has impacted their interest in enrolling in education, more Americans (25 percent) say the pandemic has increased that interest than decreased it (17 percent), for a net increase of 6 percentage points. And among Latinos and Black Americans, there is a much larger net increase in interest: plus-16 percentage points for Latinos and plus-10 percentage points for Black Americans. This increased interest is even more intense among disrupted workers — those who have lost jobs, shifts, or hours — with a 20 percentage point jump.

So if interest in enrolling in further education has increased, why hasn’t that interest translated into actual college enrollments?

Here are some possible explanations.

1. Preferences and motivations for the type of education have shifted, while confidence — in themselves and in the education system — remains a major barrier. Since the Covid-19 pandemic started, learners have indicated a preference for nondegree programs, with 67 percent of adults without degrees — let’s call them aspiring adult learners — who are now considering education saying they prefer nondegree paths, up from 50 percent a year ago. Additionally, they want these programs to count toward a degree. And while community colleges, of course, offer nondegree education and training programs, it is sometimes ancillary to their main mission. Oftentimes these programs are managed through the “Department of Non Credit,” a name that does not connote the value or relevance of these programs.  Further, the practice of converting these programs to actual academic credit toward a degree is oftentimes random, opaque, or just nonexistent. 
2. Since Covid-19 hit, education consumers want programs that will help them in the immediate term to produce income for day-to-day living.  For 33 percent of aspiring adult learners, this is their main motivation for pursuing more education, up from 16 percent last year.  Nearly half (49 percent) of Americans have had a work disruption due to Covid-19, with Black and Latino Americans experiencing greater disruption. Huge swaths of the American population need to see more clearly the relevance of education program offerings to help them meet basic food and housing needs right now.
3. Contrary to popular belief, cost is not the top barrier to pursuing education and training.  The No. 1 barrier is time and logistics, with 55 percent of all Americans reporting it as their top challenge. However, 49 percent of respondents report that self-doubt is their biggest challenge, meaning they don’t think they can succeed or have been out of school too long. This isn’t surprising given that a third of all people who have tried college and didn’t succeed report having negative experiences.    
4. Finally, and probably most important, is that Americans don’t have confidence that postsecondary programs will provide value to them.  The percentage of aspiring adult learners who strongly agree additional education will be worth the cost has dropped from 37 percent before Covid-19 to just 18 percent today.  It is even worse for expectations that additional education will help them get a good job, down from 56 percent a year ago to only 24 percent today.

Several consumer sentiments are converging: lack of preferred programming; perception of time and logistics barriers along with self-doubt; lack of understanding of the relevance of education to day-to-day life; and lack of confidence in the ability of colleges to provide value. The result is declining participation in the higher education system. This will ultimately exacerbate the shortage of talent, especially diverse talent, to fuel economic growth and recovery and to fulfill the promise of economic mobility.

So what should colleges do to attract students to their programs?

First, give education consumers what they want. Take seriously nondegree program offerings that lead to available jobs in the community so consumers can meet daily living requirements, while at the same time building a path toward degrees and higher-paying jobs.

Second, reduce the time required and complexity of the education process. One way to reduce the time to complete a credential is to combine learning, preferably online, with actual work experience. The current sequential education structure — learn first, then work — is not what aspiring adult learners want or need. Education should be wrapped around the skills and competencies needed to succeed in work, preferably in real time. We know this approach adds value for learning workers.  

Third, provide ongoing mentoring and coaching to keep students on track toward their goal, which contributes to the self-confidence they need to start and persevere to finish. Also, involve employers in that coaching so learners see the day-to-day relevance of their pursuits.  

Finally, provide education consumers with information on the value of programs. Show them job placement rates, income earned from those programs, and consumer satisfaction from those that pursued the same and similar paths.  

Aspiring adult learners have told us they’re interested in pursuing more education to help them recover from the disruption Covid-19 has brought on their lives. Now community colleges must meet these education consumers where they are, and offer them the flexibility, the support, and the promised outcomes that make that educational experience valuable in their eyes.