WASHINGTON — Robinson Chirinos, the Houston Astros catcher, has the best vantage point during games to evaluate every play. So trust his judgment in joining a chorus of people befuddled about how the baseballs themselves are behaving this postseason.
One of a handful of examples he noted: During Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, Chirinos watched the Yankees slugger Aaron Judge smash a pitch nearly 103 miles per hour at an angle of 32 degrees. According to M.L.B.’s analysis tool Statcast, balls hit like that during the regular season resulted in a home run 84 percent of the time.
Instead, this one became a 382-foot fly ball caught at the edge of the warning track in center field at Houston’s Minute Maid Park.
“I thought it was a home run,” Chirinos said.
By now, most fans have come to realize they were watching a video game version of baseball for much of this year. The 2019 regular season featured a record-setting 6,776 balls flying out of the park — a jump of nearly 600 from the previous high set in 2017. A study commissioned by M.L.B. last year found that the main factor in the rising home run rates was that the balls inexplicably had less drag and thus traveled farther. Many pitchers found the ball used this regular season had changed even more, with some complaining that their trademark pitches weren’t behaving quite the same.
It has been jarring for several players and other observers to see balls unexpectedly die quickly in the air this postseason. That seemed to confirm what Rob Arthur detailed in a Baseball Prospectus report on Oct. 10: After nearly 20 postseason games, home runs were happening at half the expected rate.
Using a statistical model that adjusted for the stronger hitters and better pitchers in the playoffs, Arthur concluded that the ball was not flying as far as it did during the regular season.
“The probability that a random selection of games from the rest of the regular season would feature as much air resistance as we’ve seen so far in the postseason,” he wrote, “is about one in one thousand.”
St. Louis Cardinals Manager Mike Shildt said during the N.L.C.S. that his club’s analytics staff had estimated balls were traveling four-and-a-half feet shorter in the postseason than they had during the regular season.
Before Game 2 of the World Series in Houston on Wednesday, M.L.B. Commissioner Rob Manfred bristled at the notion that anything about the ball was different. Without citing Arthur’s report, Manfred said any analysis done early in the postseason “where the weather is different and you get the very best pitching in the game” was “less reliable.”
He added: “I can tell you one thing for absolutely certain: Just like every other year, the balls that were used in this postseason were selected from lots that were used during the regular season. There was no difference.”
Manfred also said that a new report from scientists on the ball was expected by the end of 2019. In the past, he has conceded that M.L.B. needed to tighten the specifications of the ball and improve control of any variations. Much of the manufacturing process, such as the stitching, is done by hand at a factory in Costa Rica. Although Manfred pointed to the centering of the pill — the rubber center of the ball — as a potential culprit, he said in June that Rawlings, the supplier of the official major league ball, had not changed its production process in “any meaningful way.”
For Sean Doolittle, the Nationals closer, M.L.B.’s lack of quality control over its own ball is troubling. A follow-up report by Arthur on Friday found significant variation in the flight of the ball this postseason. But even if the balls used now are within the acceptable range, how could those small differences suddenly cause such a large difference in results on the field?
“It shouldn’t be varied at all,” Doolittle said. “The equipment in the game should be uniform. It should be standard, especially because we as players didn’t agree to any equipment changes or rule changes. It changes the fundamental nature of the game.”
Doolittle raised other concerns. How are general managers supposed to know how to construct their offenses next year if they don’t know how the ball will affect performance? And then there is the deal that M.L.B. struck last year with MGM Resorts, the sport’s first partner in the gambling industry: The agreement included access to each other’s proprietary data, such as exit velocity and launch angle.
“We’re starting to get into sports betting, so that’s something that should raise a lot of questions if the ball is going to be this different even within a single season, from the regular season to the postseason,” Doolittle said. “How does that affect that relationship? So we, as players, want more transparency. We want more of a uniform baseball. Regardless of how it flies, we just want to be in on that process.”
Tony Clark, the executive director of the players’ union, said players just want consistency, from the performance of the ball to how it is manufactured to how it is stored at each stadium — M.L.B. began standardizing the storage process for all 30 teams last year. Beginning last season, the Arizona Diamondbacks joined the Colorado Rockies in storing balls in a humidor to combat the effects of a site’s lack of moisture, which makes balls fly farther.
“It’s not just the plant in Costa Rica,” said Clark, who noted that the union was engaged in continuing talks with M.L.B. about the ball. “It’s also what happens to the baseball after they leave Costa Rica, the custodianship from the time it leaves to the time it arrives at a ballpark, to how long it sits, to where it’s stored, to what balls are used at what point in time. All of that is worthy of discussion.”
When the Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander called the ball a “joke” at the All-Star Game in July, claiming M.L.B. was intentionally juicing it for more offense, he said he had accepted an invitation from league officials to visit the plant in Costa Rica, but no plans for a trip have been made so far. He reiterated his interest just before the World Series began.
Verlander said he did so because he did not want to complain about the ball so much and then not be part of the solution. He added, “I don’t think they need my help, though.”
Verlander also pitched in the 2017 World Series, when the Astros beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in seven games. That series featured 25 combined home runs — shattering the previous World Series record of 21, set in 2002, during a seven-game series between the Anaheim Angels and the San Francisco Giants.
Entering Game 3 on Friday, there had been eight home runs in this World Series — five by the Nationals, who won the first two games. Both teams set franchise home run records during the regular season, so perhaps more are coming. Or not.
“At the end of the day, you’ve still got to hit,” said Nationals infielder Howie Kendrick, who said he had not noticed any difference in the ball’s behavior off his bat. “Whether I’m hitting homers or getting base hits, you’ve got to get hits. I can’t focus on that — plus, it’s the same for both teams.”
David Waldstein contributed reporting.