Gov. Greg Abbott Guarantees The Texas Grid Will Not Fail This Winter

Over the past month or so, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has taken to guaranteeing that the Texas electricity grid will not fail this coming winter. He has been absolutely assuring fans at University of Texas football games and audiences on radio and television that the grid managed by ERCOT will not suffer a replay of the days-long blackouts the state suffered through last February in the depths of Winter Storm Uri. During an interview with an Austin TV station on Nov. 27, the Governor said this:

“I have talked to some of the natural gas pipeline transmitters, and they’ve also have been doing winterization that most people don’t know about. Most importantly is the approach ERCOT has taken this year, unlike last year. Last year they were reactive, and waited until a crisis mode before they summoned more power, more energy, now the way ERCOT works, is they work days in advance in summoning that power to make sure they will have enough power to keep the lights on.”

I first heard the Governor make a similar claim on November 24, when he appeared live on the morning drive show on WBAP radio in the Dallas/Fort Worth area where I live. During that appearance, Gov. Abbott went on to support his claim by stating that the grid currently has “15% more generating capacity” than it enjoyed in February.

Thinking that is extraordinary news if accurate, I contacted the Governor’s media office to see if they could provide details. Five days later, they sent back this answer:

• ERCOT installed capacity on Jan. 1, 2021: 105,862 MWs

• ERCOT expected installed capacity on Jan. 1, 2022: 122,715 MWs

That didn’t really tell me a whole lot, so I asked if they could provide some detail behind those numbers or a link where I might find it, and was simply referred to the ERCOT website. After about half an hour of searching, I did find some Excel files detailing the capacity additions on the Texas grid during 2021. Indeed, those spreadsheets detail about 14,000 megawatts of capacity additions that have been synchronized into the grid during 2021, and another 2-3,000 MW awaiting synchronization.

That all sounds great, except for one problem: All but about 1,000 MW of that 14,000 consists of wind, solar or battery power. The other ~1,000 MW consists of natural gas-powered thermal generation capacity adds.

Why is that a problem? Because, despite the claims made by many Texas media outlets and anti-natural gas university teachers around the state, wind power was the first generation source to drop off the grid starting when the first winter front came through the state on Feb. 8. ERCOT’s own data shows that quite clearly:

As ERCOT clearly shows, as natural gas generation was ramping up by about 600%, wind’s generation fell off by about 80% on February 8 and 9. Meanwhile, solar essentially flatlined starting on Feb. 10. Natural gas was providing more than 60% of all power on the grid until, on Feb. 14, ERCOT began implementing rolling blackouts, in the process denying power to many natural gas wellheads, compressors and pipelines around the state. Only then did natural gas systems, devoid of electricity to power their equipment, start to fall off the grid.

The reality on the Texas grid is this: You can cover the entire western half of this state with windmills and solar panels, and you will still end up with blackouts during severe weather events if you do not have adequate back up thermal generation capacity on the grid. Everyone in Austin has known for a decade now that the grid is quite short on that kind of capacity, and it remains short on that kind of capacity today. I noted last month that the new Chairman of the Texas Public Utility Commission, Peter Lake – an Abbott appointee – remains so concerned about this key capacity shortage that he presented a detailed plan to resolve it during the PUC’s regular meeting in mid-November.

After reviewing those ERCOT spreadsheets detailing the capacity additions, I posed three additional questions to Gov. Abbott’s media office, requesting more detailed information related to the Governor’s basis for making his guarantee. Unfortunately, the Governor’s office chose not to directly answer my questions, coming back instead with this answer from Press Secretary Renae Eze:

“Thanks to the bipartisan reforms passed by the Legislature and signed into law by the Governor, we are already improving electric grid reliability to help ensure Texans do not face another power outage like last winter. New ERCOT board members with more accountability measures for ERCOT and the PUC have been appointed, and weatherization requirements for power generators and penalties for failure to comply have been put into place. And with increased generation capacity and new operational changes for a more proactive response, we are able to provide more supply to meet demand. We continue working with the PUC and ERCOT to protect critical power infrastructure and increase power generation to ensure the reliability of our electric grid.”

Since February, thousands of Texans frightened and disturbed by the deadly failure by the state’s power grid have invested thousands of dollars in natural gas generators and home solar systems to protect themselves against future grid failures and instability. If what Gov. Abbott is telling us now is accurate – that he can guarantee the grid will not fail – then no more Texans need to engage in such major investments, and those who did have basically wasted their money.

But if the information behind the Governor’s new guarantee is lacking and doesn’t really support the claim, then Texans would be well-advised to continue making those and other investments in personal power security.

Regardless, this is one whale of a guarantee. Given the heightened level of political focus surrounding the grid, it’s a guarantee that could come back to haunt Gov. Abbott during next year’s elections should this ongoing shortage of reserve thermal generating capacity result in more failures this winter.