Golden State is one win away from heading back to the NBA Finals. They went into Dallas and beat the Mavericks despite Luka Doncic leading all scorers with 40 points in Game 3.
The assumption was that if Doncic could just get a little help that would turn the series, but even with Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie scoring 46 combined points, they came up short. Golden State is playing a such a high level right now. They are finding new ways to exploit Dallas in every game.
Andrew Wiggins has been responsible for trying to keep Doncic in check (though there are lots of switches) but he also reminded us all of just how good a player can be with a massive dunk on Doncic that set the tone, along with 27 points and 11 rebounds.
Dallas has been very resilient throughout these playoffs, but they have to be asking themselves how they are going to turn things around at this point.
They are still small favorites at home even though they have not covered in any of the three losses in the series.
Game Info
Golden State Warriors (3-0) vs. Dallas Mavericks (0-3)
Tuesday, May 24, 2022
9:00 p.m. ET
American Airlines Arena, Dallas, Texas
TNT
Betting Odds
Spread: Warriors +1 (-110), Mavericks -1 (-110)
Total: 215.5
Moneyline: Warriors -108, Mavericks -112
Best Bet
Dallas ML
The spread and Moneyline are virtually the same for this game, but that might change throughout the day. I think the ML is the way to go in an elimination game.
I hate to oversimplify this handicap, but going into this series, I did like Golden State to win but never thought it would be a sweep, so I am looking to back the Mavs Tuesday night. Sweeps are hard!!
Golden State has looked great, but when you are up 3-0, and on the road, there is definitely a tendency to take your foot off the gas. Meanwhile, Dallas has to be motivated to extend their season and has shown some mettle in elimination games already this postseason.
On a tactical level, Dallas is going to try and rely on the same formula of maxing out Doncic and hoping that others come along for the ride. They also have to be sharper on defense. Golden State only scored 109 points in Game 3, their lowest total of the series, so maybe they are improving on that end. If they can bring them down even further, they are going to be in their sweet spot.
Of course, that strategy could get blown up by one of the Splash Brothers making 7-of-10 three-pointers Thus far, they have been managed if not held in check.
It is not going to be the reason they lose the game, but not having Otto Porter is going to make things more difficult for Golden State. His best days are behind him, but you know what you are going to get from the veteran, compared to the combo of rookies Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga. This game is going to be close, so a few possessions are going to make a difference. That is where certainty really matters.
Golden State is not going to mail it in, but their intensity might not match Dallas’, which I expect to be off the charts as they look to stave off elimination. As long as Luka rises to the moment, which he almost always does, Dallas gets the win.
Coming into the series, I expected Luka would steal a game, and this is going to be his last chance to do so. I can get behind that.
