We’re only one week into the 2024-25 NBA regular season, so it’s important not to jump to many conclusions right away. That said, certain tendencies that have transpired over the past week seem more likely to continue than others.
Let’s take a deeper look into some of those trends and mirages…
Trend: Tyrese Maxey leading the league in minutes played
After three games, Maxey is playing a whopping 42.7 minutes per game. Look for this to continue. Nick Nurse has no choice but to lean on Maxey while Joel Embiid and Paul George remain sidelined.
Mirage: Karl-Anthony Towns and Alperen Sengun playing less than 30 minutes per game
If you’re like me — using Top 20 draft picks on both Towns and Sengun — then surely you’re disappointed in their lack of minutes thus far. Keep the faith. It shouldn’t be long before their minutes and production ramp up.
Trend: Bilal Coulibaly playing 34.0 minutes per game
Of the 44 players currently averaging 34 minutes per game or more, Coulibaly is among the least experienced and accomplished players. I expect this trend to continue. The Wizards are trying to accelerate his growth. I wrote an entire column on why I like Coulibaly and Jaden Ivey to have breakout years over at Zen Hoops, where you can read more of my fantasy hoops musings.
Mirage: Zaccharie Risacher playing just 22.5 minutes per game
Risacher came off the bench for his first two games, and after four games, he is playing just 22.5 minutes per game. However, the Hawks won’t be able to keep him glued to the bench. They’re currently dealing with long-term injuries to Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kobe Bufkin and Vit Krejci. It’s time to see what this year’s top draft pick can do!
Trend: Chet Holmgren and Evan Mobley have leveled up
This shouldn’t be much of a shocker. Both young, big men are oozing with talent. Holmgren has been more aggressive, scoring the rock while flying around the paint defensively to take an early-season lead in shot-blocking — 4.0 swats per game. Meanwhile, Mobley has also increased his scoring and shot-blocking and is shooting a sweet 88 percent from the foul line.
Mirage: Rookies Alex Sarr and Zach Edey won’t be playable
One week into the season, Sarr’s field goal percentage is under 29 percent, and Edey has been dealing with foul trouble. We know the minutes will stay consistent for Sarr, especially with Kyle Kuzma injured. Edey has been hurt by Ja Morant’s reduced minutes thus far. As both rookies adjust to life in the NBA, they should eventually figure out how to be effective on the court, thus helping their fantasy managers.
Trend: Ivica Zubac beasting in the paint
After three games, Zubac is averaging 22.7 points and 14.0 boards per game, well above his previous career bests of 11.7 points and 9.9 boards per game. We can expect the strong numbers to continue because he’s shooting just 59 percent from the field, compared to 65 percent last season, so his points per game could climb even higher if the field goal shooting improves. Until Kawhi Leonard is ready to help the Clippers out, they’ll need “Zoo” to keep playing like this.
Mirage: Scotty Pippen Jr. averaging 8-plus assists per game
Pippen proved to be a valuable backup last season, and he’s off to a blistering start this year. But his 8.3 dimes in just 25 minutes per game off the bench is unsustainable. Unless Morant suffers a major injury, his numbers will start sliding.
Trend: Yves Missi blocking 2.3 shots per game
Missi has been effective coming off the bench for New Orleans and is showing excellent rim-protection skills without getting into foul trouble. The Pelicans have a major rim-protection need, so his role should continue.
Mirage: Jordan Poole grabbing 3.0 steals per game
The top three steals leaders are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Poole and Dyson Daniels. One of those names doesn’t belong, and it’s the player averaging just 1.1 steals per 36 minutes for his career.
Trend: Jalen Duren, Jarrett Allen and Dereck Lively II posting elite field goal percentage marks
At a distance of just 1.6 feet from the basket per shot attempt, it’s no wonder Duren is currently shooting over 85 percent from the field, which leads the league. That has to come down a bit, but it wouldn’t be shocking if he finishes the season over 75 percent, as I’ve highlighted his dominant strength in the paint before. Allen and Lively rank right behind Duren in field goal percentage thanks to their combinations of length, finesse, touch and athleticism. Even if those numbers slide a bit, it’s pretty clear they’ll all be field goal percentage anchors.
Mirage: Mikal Bridges and others shooting over 60 percent from the field
Bridges is the most notable mirage player currently shooting over 60 percent from the field, given how erratic his 3-point shooting was in preseason and what his overall shot chart will look like. But players like Aaron Wiggins, Derrick Jones Jr., Caris LeVert and Miles McBride are also shooting way above their pay grades.
Trend: Keyonte George being a field goal percentage killer
I believe George will produce quality counting stats this season, but if you were expecting improved efficiency, you might have to wait another year. He’s shooting just 26 percent from the field after four games and is 30 percent or below from both 3-point range and 2-point range. With not much elite talent surrounding him, expect the poor shooting woes to be a theme throughout the season.
Mirage: A bunch of stars shooting well below their career norms
Numerous superstars are struggling to knock down shots efficiently early in the season, but the small sample sizes mean we shouldn’t rush to judgment (at least not for the proven stars).
Trend: Cam Thomas, Jalen Green, Paolo Banchero and Cade Cunningham averaging 25-plus points per game
For Thomas and Green especially, we saw some foreshadowing in the second half of last season as to what they might be able to accomplish scoring-wise, and early on, they are delivering the goods. Banchero and Cunningham look like the superstars many predicted they would become when they were selected first overall in their respective drafts. However, I’m still on the fence about LaMelo Ball, as Brandon Miller’s return will damper his scoring outbursts.
Mirage: Zach LaVine averaging 26 points per game
LaVine is red-hot to start the year, shooting 55 percent from the field and looking a lot like the former All-Star he once was. But he can’t maintain this level of efficiency, and the Bulls are still hoping to trade him for any valuable assets.
Trend: Payton Pritchard producing potent statlines
Since his 1-for-10 shooting stinker on opening night, Pritchard has been on a heater, making 18-of-29 triples over the past three games. I predicted this would happen, of course!
Mirage: Jalen Williams, O.G. Anunoby and Deni Avdija are now terrible 3-point shooters
Among the notable players off to terrible 3-point shooting starts, J-Dub is currently at 20 percent, Anunoby is at 17 percent, and Avdija is at 7 percent (a woeful 1-of-15). For Avdija, let’s remember that he’s acclimatizing to an entirely new set of teammates. These are small sample sizes, and we know that they’re better shooters than this.
Trend: Tyrese Haliburton has lost his mojo
Among the superstars off to slow starts, Haliburton’s may be the most concerning. Let’s remember, he played at less than optimal health for the second half of last season, barely played in the Olympics, attempted just one free throw in 58 preseason minutes, and now he’s struggling with his shot from all areas of the floor. I hope this trend proves false, as Haliburton is an electric player when he’s on top of his game.
Mirage: Offensive numbers are way down from last season
Across the league, the average team’s points per game, assists, 3-point shooting and 2-point shooting numbers are considerably down from last season. One of the only numbers that has increased is free throw attempts. But as teams start to shake off their shooting rust and referees begin to relax when it comes to blowing their whistles, I expect the offensive numbers to start climbing, eventually surpassing last year’s scoring averages.
(Top photo of Tyrese Haliburton: Elsa / Getty Images)
