Fantasy basketball is back and, once again, I’m here to help you sharpen your skills.
A concept that’s easy to understand for all fantasy sports players, from novice to elite, is that players must get enough playing time in order for them to produce in a meaningful way.
And once you’ve become a seasoned and savvy player, it becomes easier and easier to identify which players are due for major playing time jumps. Usually it’s young players who’ve shown they’re ready for more responsibilities, or proven players who’ve recently changed teams. But don’t worry if you’re not quite there yet, as I’ve decided to take some of the guesswork out of it.
Here are 17 players who I think are poised for some of the most meaningful minutes per game jumps for the 2024-25 NBA season, ranked by my current expected fantasy values for them (your rankings may vary).
Let’s start with “The Extraterrestrial” in the room…
1. Victor Wembanyama, SA
- 2023-24 season: 29.7 minutes per game (mpg)
- 2024-25 projection: 33-35 mpg
If you’re one of those people who doesn’t quite understand why so many people are drafting Wemby first overall, ahead of Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, then you might be expecting the second-year stud to only see a slight increase in minutes played when compared to his rookie year. If that’s the case, I suggest you examine his final 19 games of last season, when Wemby played 32.9 mpg (this includes a 21 minute game against the Suns, in which he tweaked his left ankle and sat out the following game). As such, I think it’s reasonable to project around 33-to-34 minutes per game for 2024-25, with a best-case scenario around 35 mpg.
We all know that Wemby is going to be a beast when it comes to his scoring, rebounding and shot-blocking numbers, with excellent assists and 3-pointers from the center position as well. But don’t underestimate how much his FG% is also likely to improve in Year 2, especially with future Hall of Famer Chris Paul now setting him up for easy buckets. While there are no guarantees that Wembanyama will be the fantasy MVP for 2024-25, are you really willing to pass on him if you have the top overall pick?!?
2. Immanuel Quickley, TOR
- 2023-24 season: 29.2 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 34-36 mpg
Don’t make the mistake of judging Quickley by his overall season stats from 2023-24, as those were deflated due to him playing just 24.0 minutes per game over his 30-game stint with the Knicks. Once he was traded to Toronto, Quickley was thrust into the Raptors starting lineup, where he averaged 33.3 mpg to close out the season.
After showcasing a nice blend of scoring and play-making ability for the Raptors, combined with his ability to play at a fast pace and grow alongside franchise cornerstone Scottie Barnes, Toronto decided to sign Quickley to a five-year contract extension worth over $162 million over the summer. As a result, you can expect his minutes to rise even further in 2024-25.
3. Cam Thomas, BKN
- 2023-24 season: 31.4 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 34-36 mpg
You might think 34-to-36 mpg is an aggressive projection for a player who only started in 20 of Brooklyn’s first 44 games last season. But Thomas closed out last year by playing 34.9 mpg over his final 31 games for the Nets, and along with the increase in minutes came an impressive increase in production. Over those 31 contests, Thomas poured in 24.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.5 triples per game, with 44-38-89 percent shooting splits (FG%-3P%-FT%).
For 2024-25, the runway has been cleared for Thomas to take off, as former teammate Mikal Bridges — who played in all 82 games and played a team-high 34.8 mpg for the Nets last season — is now on the Knicks. Brooklyn has no choice but to lean on Thomas even more for the season ahead, and there’s a good chance it will result in him being a Top 10 scorer in the league.
4. Josh Giddey, CHI
- 2023-24 season: 25.1 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 32-34 mpg
After playing over 31 mpg in each of his first two NBA seasons, Giddey fell out of favor with the Thunder last season, falling to just 25.1 mpg in the regular season, and then a measly 18.1 mpg in the playoffs. A change of scenery was needed, and the Bulls are in dire need of an influx of young talent (Giddey will turn 22 years old in October). This could be a win-win for both parties, and it would be nice to see Giddey return to fantasy stardom.
As a reminder, Giddey averaged 16.6 points, 7.9 boards and 6.2 assists in 31.1 minutes per game during the 2022-23 season, which is a fair projection for the season ahead. His fantasy ceiling will climb even higher than that if Chicago can figure out a way to jettison established veterans Zach LaVine and/or Nikola Vucevic. Either way, you should be banking on a bounce back.
5. Jonathan Kuminga, GS
- 2023-24 season: 26.3 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 31-33 mpg
For the first 20 or so games of last season, Steve Kerr gave Kuminga the Jayson Tatum on Team USA treatment, which left Kuminga feeling lost and frustrated. Thankfully, he was able to turn things around. Over his final 34 games of 2023-24, Kuminga averaged exactly 30.0 minutes per game, while producing 18.6 points on 53% FG shooting. The rest of his numbers don’t really jump off the page, but like Giddey, he’ll turn 22 years old in October, and is a player on the rise.
It would be fun to project Kuminga for 34 minutes per game in 2024-25, but alas, Andrew Wiggins is still around, and the versatile Kyle Anderson has also been added to Golden State’s frontcourt rotation. But 31-to-33 mpg seems like a fair projection, and he should see a solid increase in shot attempts now that Klay Thompson has jumped ship.
6. Keyonte George, UTAH
- 2023-24 season: 27.0 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 31-33 mpg
As to be expected from a rookie combo guard, George’s first few months of the 2023-24 season were pretty up-and-down. But Utah let George spread his wings over the final two months of the season, and over his last 28 games, he responded with 15.8 points, 4.8 assists and 2.4 threes — albeit just 0.7 stocks (steals plus blocks) — in 31.4 minutes per game.
George should hit the ground running in his second NBA season, playing 30+ minutes per game on most nights. It’s tough to pinpoint what exactly that’s going to translate to in terms of fantasy production — his field goal shooting could still be really rough — but he should at least become a reliable fantasy option in deeper leagues. The potential is there for him to get up to 34 mpg later on in the season too, if Utah can find a trade partner for the veteran Jordan Clarkson.
7. Trayce Jackson-Davis, GS
- 2023-24 season: 16.6 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 24-26 mpg
Over the first two months of his rookie season, Jackson-Davis played 20+ minutes in a game only three times. But he proved to be impactful whenever he was on the floor, and once Draymond Green returned from his suspension, the two big men started to develop some nice chemistry together. This resulted in TJD eventually moving into the starting lineup, while averaging an intriguing 10.9 points, 7.5 boards and 1.7 blocked shots in 25.3 mpg over his final 19 games of the season.
As for the negatives, Jackson-Davis shot just 56% from the foul line as a rookie, and he won’t become a go-to scorer for the Warriors overnight. But with steady minutes expected from opening night, TJD will be a worthy late-round fantasy target for 2024-25.
8. Patrick Williams, CHI
- 2023-24 season: 27.3 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 31-33 mpg
Williams entered the league in 2020-21 and had a rock solid rookie season, showcasing promising upside and, dare I say, star potential. Four years later, he hasn’t shown much progress since then. But pivot back to what I said about Chicago being desperate for young talent, and it made sense for the Bulls to not give up on Williams too soon. As a result, they signed him to a five-year, $90 million contract extension over the summer.
With a new contract under his belt, and DeMar DeRozan now out of the picture, look for Williams to take on a much larger role for the season ahead. After all, not only did DeRozan score a team-high 24.0 points per game last year, but he led the league in minutes played, at a whopping 37.8 mpg. That being said, I don’t blame you if you don’t believe in Williams’ ability to make a major leap statistically. But if there was ever a year for him to take his game to the next level, this would be it.
9. Noah Clowney, BKN
- 2023-24 season: 16.1 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 26-28 mpg
In some of the early drafts that I’ve participated in, Clowney has actually been picked ahead of Williams. That’s a bit aggressive for me, and I’m not ready to move Clowney ahead of Pat-Will just yet, but I can see the line of thinking. After all, Clowney had some fine fantasy games over the final month of last season and the Nets are clearly in rebuild mode, so they should focus on developing Clowney as one of their top young prospects.
One concern for Clowney is that he could struggle with foul trouble, as he racked up 3.9 fouls in 29.7 minutes per game over 34 G-League games last season. The Nets also need to figure out what they’re doing with their veteran forwards, Bojan Bogdanovic and Dorian Finney-Smith. But Clowney should be on your fantasy radar, as there is intriguing upside here.
10. Andrew Nembhard, IND
- 2023-24 season: 25.0 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 29-31 mpg
For the 2023-24 season, Nembhard went from playing 22.9 mpg before the All-Star break, to 28.3 mpg after the break, to a sweet 32.6 mpg over 17 playoff games. Not so fast you might say, that’s all because of Tyrese Haliburton’s hamstring issues. Well, Haliburton actually played in every single game after the All-Star break, and he only missed two games in the postseason.
While it’s true that Bennedict Mathurin missed a bunch of games over that timespan, in my opinion, it’s pretty clear that Indiana’s management team favors Nembhard over Mathurin due to Nembhard’s superior defense and high basketball IQ. Now entering his third NBA season, Nembhard has a strong chance of playing over 30 mpg.
11. Dyson Daniels, ATL
- 2023-24 season: 22.3 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 27-29 mpg
Very few people would be willing to claim that Daniels is a better player than Dejounte Murray at this stage of their careers, but he certainly seems like a better fit in Atlanta’s backcourt. As a long and strong versatile defender who is comfortable playing off the ball and doesn’t require a ton of shot attempts to keep him happy, it makes perfect sense to play him alongside Trae Young.
It also helps that Daniels is only 21 years old, which will allow him to grow alongside recent top draft pick Zaccharie Risacher. While Bogdan Bogdanovic is a very fine player, he’s best utilized as an instant-offense guard off the bench. As such, I’m projecting both Daniels and Bogdanovic to play around 27-to-29 minutes per game, rather than Bogie jumping up to 32+ mpg now that Murray is gone.
12. Taylor Hendricks, UTAH
- 2023-24 season: 21.4 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 26-28 mpg
I think it’s safe to say that Utah’s roster is not going to look the same now as it does at the end of the season. In addition to the aforementioned Clarkson, John Collins is also a top trade candidate, and the Jazz are still hoping to be wooed by any Walker Kessler trade offers. With that in mind, Hendricks is a safe bet to not only play solid rotation minutes this season, but to possibly be playing 30+ mpg during the second half of the season.
Over Utah’s final 16 games of last season, Hendricks contributed a modest 9.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.9 threes and 1.8 stocks in 27.2 mpg, while shooting 48% FG and over 43% from 3-point range. While Lauri Markkanen only played in a handful of those games, it was still a solid showing from Hendricks, who won’t turn 21 years old until November.
13. Jonathan Isaac, ORL
- 2023-24 season: 15.8 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 19-21 mpg
The Magic were very careful about managing Isaac’s minutes last season, and rightfully so, as he had played a total of just 124 minutes over the prior three seasons combined. As a result, Isaac routinely sat out games last year, and he didn’t play 24+ minutes in a game until right before the All-Star break.
But then a funny thing happened down the stretch, as Wendell Carter Jr. was hobbled by back issues, and Orlando decided it was time to take Isaac’s bubble wrap off. Over Orlando’s final two regular season games and their first postseason game, Isaac played his most minutes of the season, getting 26+ minutes of run in each game. I’m not ready to project 24+ mpg for 2024-25, but Isaac is worth mentioning because of his strong per-minute stat-stuffing abilities. If Isaac can approach 20 mpg this season, he’ll make plenty of fantasy noise.
14. Keon Ellis, SAC
- 2023-24 season: 17.2 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 25-27 mpg
While stats from play-in tournament games aren’t official, they should still be remembered if they tell an important story. Such is the case with Ellis, as he cemented his value to the Kings during their first play-in tournament game against the Warriors.
With both Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter injured, Ellis was thrust into 39 minutes of action that game. In addition to scoring 15 points on 3-of-4 shooting from deep, to go along with 5 assists, Ellis also wreaked havoc on defense, with 3 steals and 3 blocks, while helping to keep Stephen Curry in check and shut down Klay Thompson. Even with Monk and Huerter now fully healthy, it’s clear that Ellis has earned solid rotation minutes for the season ahead.
15. Gradey Dick, TOR
- 2023-24 season: 21.1 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 28-30 mpg
After barely playing for the first few months of his rookie campaign, Toronto decided to throw Dick into the fire to close out the year. Over his final 32 games of the season, Dick responded by scoring 12.4 points with 2.2 triples in 27.4 minutes per game, while shooting 40% from 3-point range. That shooting efficiency was pretty impressive when you consider that Toronto’s top player, Scottie Barnes, was sidelined for most of those games.
Dick will have even more opportunities to expand his game in 2024-25, thanks to Toronto allowing Gary Trent Jr. to sign with the Bucks in free agency. While he’s not great at stuffing the stat sheet outside of scoring, Dick will be one of those players who could erupt for 75 points and 15 triples in any given week when he gets hot and the schedule is favorable.
16. Christian Braun, DEN
- 2023-24 season: 20.2 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 28-30 mpg
After letting Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk in free agency over the summer, it’s no secret that Denver needs Braun to take his game to another level this season. Over the past two seasons, KCP played 31.5 mpg for Denver, while starting 152 of their 164 regular season games. If you were to ask Denver general manager Calvin Booth, he’ll tell you that Braun has been groomed to be the heir apparent to KCP.
One concern is that Braun played 29+ minutes in a game just five times last season. The other concern is that he’s been a little too shy to let it fly from behind the arc — just 3.6 attempts per 36 minutes from 3-point range last season. So I’m not ready to declare that Braun is going to be a steady fantasy contributor for 2024-25, but the 23-year old will have plenty of opportunities to prove himself.
17. Jalen Wilson, BKN
- 2023-24 season: 15.4 mpg
- 2024-25 projection: 22-24 mpg
One issue with Clowney is that he isn’t quite flying under the radar in some leagues, as too many people have already identified him as a solid late-round sleeper target. If that’s the case, you could go after his fellow second-year teammate instead. Wilson actually played 664 total NBA minutes last season, compared to Clowney’s 370, so it’s not like the Nets weren’t interested in developing their 2023 second-round draft pick.
Over the Las Vegas Summer League, Wilson did everything he possibly could to show Brooklyn that he’s ready for major rotation minutes this coming season. Over five games played, Wilson poured in 21.8 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.4 threes per game with strong shooting efficiency, earning him Summer League MVP honors. The losses are going to pile up in Brooklyn this year, but Wilson could become one of their lone bright spots.
So there you go, you no longer have an excuse to be sleeping on these players. But who else do you think is ready for major jumps in playing time?
(Top photo of Victor Wembanyama, Christian Bruan: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports)
