EU and USA. Euro flag and USA flag.
Recently I wrote about the important gains we’ve made in the last 20 years with the advent of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS). I noted that at its current level of adoption, increasingly yearly, ADAS will have a significant role in bringing down crash rates in the future, far more than the rise of fully automated driving. Now, thanks to European regulators, equipping tomorrow’s cars with ADAS is about to get super-charged. By contrast, the USA will for the most part leave crash avoidance tech adoption to decisions made by automakers and the buying public. Which is the best way? It depends on your perspective.
Crash Rates Trending Downward… Eventually
The good news is that crash rates will go down. But at what pace? There are two fundamental factors: market and regulatory. Europe has long led the way with a regulatory approach to increasing safety. For decades, European transportation officials have been setting ambitious goals which have guided road safety policy. For instance, in 2011 the European Commission set a target of 50% reduction in road fatalities by 2020 (recently extended to 2030). In 2017 they set a goal of 50% reduction in serious road injuries by 2030. In parallel, the European vehicle industry is strongly driven by the European New Car Assessment Program (EuroNCAP). This five-star safety rating system for consumers has aggressively set challenging timelines for new ADAS systems, spurring automakers to develop and offer these systems not only to Europeans but across their major markets worldwide. EuroNCAP is not a regulator but is incredibly effective in spurring the market to offer advanced safety systems.
The U.S. hasn’t set numeric forward-looking safety goals and the U.S. NCAP program is a weakling in comparison to Europe. America leans strongly towards allowing market forces to drive adoption of safety systems, using regulations judiciously. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the vehicle safety regulatory agency, is seen by some to be quite passive relative to Europe. But the situation is actually incredibly complex. NHTSA must grapple with structural barriers to putting new regulations in place; it is a long, arduous, and sometimes litigious process. In fact, just to propose a new regulation, NHTSA has to show a positive benefit-cost return. Some would say their approach – which reflects the will of the U.S. Congress – keeps the government from too much over-reach or needlessly dictating to industry, while safety advocates would say that NHTSA is abdicating its role. Or, a consumer advocate might say, “Don’t layer on all this technology which forces me to pay more for my basic mobility. I’m a safe driver and that should be enough.” Another consumer advocate might counter, saying, “I lost a loved one due to a crash that could have been prevented by today’s technology – it should be required in all cars.” This debate has been raging for years and I see no signs that NHTSA’s approach is going to change fundamentally. Plus, substantial NHTSA resources are devoted to addressing drunken driving and speeding, neither of which are as large a problem in Europe due to draconian penalties for offenders there. Given these myriad challenges, in 2016 NHTSA Administrator Dr. Mark Rosekind took an innovative approach when he worked with the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety to persuade twenty major automakers to make Automatic Emergency Braking standard equipment by 2022 on all the cars they sell in the U.S. At the time, Dr. Rosekind noted that this voluntary approach would be much more practical and timely than a drawn out regulatory process. Consumer Reports supported the commitment and assists in monitoring automaker progress.
Europe Takes Required Safety Gear To A New Level
Last month Europe took a huge step forward in road safety with their 2019 General Safety Regulation, the first major update in 10 years. Adopting a new safety regulation in Europe is a Big Deal, with many inter-locking parts. The process involves the European Commission, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), the European Parliament, and the European Council. The workhorse within UNECE is Working Party 29 which includes both industry and government officials from around the world. The initial General Safety Regulation proposal amongst the EU government bodies was published in May 2018, and then in October 2018 the UNECE agreed. In February of this year the European Commission signed off, with the final move being the European Council’s formal adoption last month. European officials tell me the full text of the regulation is expected to be published in early 2020.
As a first for Europe, the new regulations specifically address vulnerable road users, such as pedestrians and cyclists.
Here’s a rundown on what’s coming. Heavy trucks have been required to have Advanced Emergency Braking and Lane Departure Warning for several years already (neither are required in the U.S.). These features are now being expanded to include light vehicles sold in Europe with added capability: AEB at speeds up to 60 kph must be capable of detecting and responding to moving vehicles, stationary obstacles, and vulnerable road users. Emergency lane-keeping systems (temporary steering control to bring a vehicle back into its lane) and event data recorders will also be required for light vehicles.
For both light and heavy vehicles, these systems will be required for the first time:
· Intelligent speed assistance
· Driver attention monitoring
· Advanced distraction recognition
· Reversing detection
· Emergency stop signal
· Alcohol interlock installation facilitation
· Tire Pressure Monitoring System
Trucks and buses will be required to reduce blind spots; specifically, required systems must be capable of detecting pedestrians and cyclists located in close proximity to the vehicle. This will address a crash scenario that has gotten worse in recent years: trucks making right turns when a bicyclist alongside the truck is zooming forward to go straight through the intersection.
In contrast to the U.S. where automakers self-certify that their vehicles are compliant with Federal regulations, Europe uses a Type Approval system. This is done via independent testing labs which evaluate samples of a new vehicle provided by the manufacturer to ensure it meets a minimum set of regulatory, technical and safety requirements. Type approval is required before a vehicle product is allowed to be sold in Europe. Europe’s timeline calls for implementation of these new safety regulations by May 2022 for new type-approvals and May 2024 for all new vehicle registrations. For an automaker, this is basically “tomorrow” and you can be assured they’ve already been working towards these goals for some time now.
European Regulators Take On Automated Driving
What I’ve just described is a massive change in the safety capability of vehicles. But the EU regulators didn’t stop there. Automated vehicles at SAE Levels 3, 4, 5 (where the human is out of the loop for some or all of the time) will be required to have “systems to replace driver control,” “driver readiness monitoring systems” (for Level 3 where driving responsibility is shared with the driver), and event data recorders (to indicate whether the human or system was doing the driving so as to establish legal responsibility in a crash). The regulation also calls for creation of a harmonized data exchange format for the vehicle-to-vehicle communications which are fundamental to safe truck platooning.
However, the timelines above appear to apply only to the ADAS features. Implementation dates are not prescribed for the ADS items. Instead, the European Commission is empowered to adopt “implementing acts” relevant to automated vehicles. The EC will in turn be working closely with the UNECE as well as leading countries around the world to get the job done. Meanwhile, Europe has an “exemption procedure” by which individual EU Member States can perform ad-hoc safety assessments to approve ADS deployment. (This has been done in Germany to allow Level 3 ADS to come to market there.)
Clearly 2022 is a big year for both the U.S. and Europe. Europe’s new regulations represent a significant step forward, taking far bolder and more comprehensive steps than the U.S. regulators. As ADAS proliferates, we all get safer. As ADS proliferates, we regain time spent driving plus have access to new mobility options. This is a Herculean effort that’s been underway for some time now. While we still have far to go, I predict the coming decade will see a long-awaited inflection point in road safety.
