ERCOT Shocks Texans Again With Another Power Conservation Notice

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) stunned Texas electric customers again on Monday when it issued yet another warning of potentially inadequate generation capacity. The quasi-public agency blamed the need to issue the warning on “A significant number of forced generation outages and potential record electric use for the month of June,” and asked Texans to reduce electricity usage as much as possible through Friday, June 18.

Texans are well-acquainted with receiving such warnings during July and August, when statewide temperatures are at their hottest and demand at its peak. But Monday’s notice from ERCOT , coming just two months after similar warnings during the mild month of April, was another shock to the collective system since the calendar has not yet even officially reached summertime.

Texas currently finds itself in the middle of a heat wave as a ridge of high pressure has positioned itself over the state since June 9. However, the heat is certainly nothing unprecedented for the vast region, and ERCOT, other state officials and power generators have had more than enough time to adequately prepare for summer’s high demand months.

ERCOT data indicated that 11,000 megawatts of generation capacity is currently offline for repairs and maintenance, well above the 3,600 MW that is normally offline for this time of year. A similar situation existed on April 13-14, when ERCOT was forced to issue similar warnings of inadequate generating capacity on two of the mildest weather days of the year thus far. The guidelines under which ERCOT operates force it to automatically approve offline requests if they are received from generators at least 45 days in advance, just one more feature of Texas’s de-regulated market system that effectively increases its level of instability.

It’s important to note that none of this comes as a surprise to ERCOT. Barely a month ago, the agency released a report of an analysis it had performed projecting potential events on the grid for this summer. Warren Lasher, ERCOT’s senior director of system planning, issued the following summation of that study’s findings:

“In three of the four primary scenarios, we expect to meet peak customer demands while maintaining normal operating conditions,” Lasher said. “Only in the fourth primary scenario, which reflects the potential for very low wind generation output on the peak summer day — only in that scenario would we expect to have to enter emergency conditions in order to maintain reliability while meeting peak demand.”

So, if the wind stops blowing in West Texas – which it does on a regular basis, even during the summer months – then the grid has a problem. Given that 3,000 of the 11,000 MW offline on Monday were renewable sources, the vast majority of which in Texas comes from wind power, it appears Mr. Lasher’s “fourth primary scenario” arrived a little earlier than expected.

Some power generators in Texas and advocates for renewables continue to push the fiction that the Texas grid does not lack adequate dispatchable (natural gas or coal) generating capacity. The fact that ERCOT has had to issue inadequate capacity warnings three times before summer even begins would appear to any disinterested observer to indicate otherwise.

Unfortunately, members of the Texas legislature did little to address the real issues impacting the grid during their regular session that ended at the end of May. Equally unfortunately, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has failed to keep the promise he made to all Texans in February to call the legislature back into a special session if it failed to act to resolve the grid’s lingering issues. As a result, Texans are left hoping against hope that ERCOT can somehow manage to keep the lights and air conditioners running when the heat really sets into the state come July and August.

Hope is not a plan, and the Texas power grid is definitely not reliable in any way, shape or form. ERCOT could be due for a name change soon. That “R” word no longer seems to be appropriate.