Election 2024 live updates: Harris and Trump still polling neck-and-neck as over 70 million ballots already cast

J Ann Seltzer, widely considered to be among the best pollsters in the country, has just published her final survey of Iowa for The Des Moines Register.

To the surprise of many it shows a 12-point swing to the Democratic Party ticket since 2020, putting Kamala Harris three points over Donald Trump in the Hawkeye State at 47% to 44%.

The results come as Trump and Harris have focused their attention almost exclusively on seven battleground states that are expected to shape the outcome of the election. Neither has campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primaries ended, and neither campaign has established a ground presence in the state.

A victory for Harris would be a surprising development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.

The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.

“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.

The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which include those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co. from October 28-31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points — so any lead Harris has is within that.

Robert F Kennedy Jr has tweeted that on the day Donald Trump takes office if he wins the election, the White House will advise all US water systems to remove fluoride from public water.

Kennedy will reportedly have a key role in health policy in a second Trump administration.

Politico cites the American Dental Association as saying that water fluoridation is “safe, effective and healthy,” and that “70 years of research, thousands of studies and the experience of more than 210 million Americans tell us that water fluoridation is effective in preventing cavities and is safe for children and adults.”

In his latest blog for investment platform Saxo, former Trump communications director Anthony Scaramucci says the Harris campaign is “nauseously optimistic”.

They’re saying they’re nauseously optimistic – not cautiously – they’re nauseously optimistic. They’ve got a pit in their stomach, but they’re looking at their data and they like their data.

They’re looking at the women’s turnout and they like it. The elder vote in Pennsylvania is way down. It means older people are saying, “I’m not going to vote. I don’t like her, so I’m not going to vote for her, but I can’t vote for this anymore”.

His final message to Americans as the country casts their vote is to back Kamala Harris, even if you have to “hold your nose”.

I would be telling them I’m for Harris. While I may not agree with every single policy, she’s a constitutionalist and she’s for our system. He’s talking about shaking the system and going after his enemies.

Imagine a politician who wants to go after his enemies in a democracy that has free speech, versus if you were railing against her and she won, you would have zero worries about her coming against you.

So, I would appeal to their individual liberty and say if Donald Trump is coming after Liz Cheney, which you may think is distant from you, but that’s a domino toppling that’s heading towards you because that’s how really bad things start.

If you don’t like her or her tax policy, hold your nose and vote for her, because she represents a system that has made the country the most prosperous economy in the history of the world.

Donald Trump is still trying to frame his rambling, sometimes incoherent, trains of thought as “The Weave”.

The former president is right about one thing: “Nobody else can do a weave like Trump.”

More than 70 million Americans have already voted with Election Day just three days away.

Data from 47 states and the District of Columbia gathered by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist, a data and analytics company, shows that 71.5 million ballots have been cast.

That is about 45% of the 158 million votes for president cast in 2020.

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, about 70% of votes were cast ahead of Election Day. During the midterms in 2022, the split was roughly even between those who voted early and those who waited until Election Day.

Georgia is leading the way with early voting at 80% of 2020 votes. In 14 states more than half of the votes of those registered have been cast.

The Indiana Jones actor took the opportunity to speak out despite “never really want[ing] to talk about it very much,” and urged voters to “move forward” with Kamala Harris.

Rhian Lubin reports on why he believes the Democrat is the right choice.

Cardi B has clapped back at Elon Musk after the owner of X accused her of being a “puppet” for the Kamala Harris campaign following her speech in Milwaukee last night.

A teleprompter error meant the rapper read her speech from a phone ahead of the vice president’s remarks.

Musk tweeted: “Another puppet who can’t even talk without being fed the words. The Kamala campaign has no authenticity or true empathy.”

Cardi B replied: “I’m not a puppet Elon.. I’m a daughter of two immigrant parents that had to work their ass off to provide for me! I’m a product of welfare, I’m a product of section 8, I’m a product of poverty and I’m a product of what happens when the system is set up against you… But you don’t know nothing about that. You don’t know not one thing about the American struggle…. PS fix my algorithm.”

Here’s Cardi B’s speech last night.

Speaking in Flagstaff, Arizona, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is contrasting Donald Trump’s pledge to “protect women”, whether they “like it or not”, with his role in overturning Roe v Wade and the impact that has had on women.

Referring to Trump’s appointment of three Supreme Court justices, Walz said: “Because of that, now what we’re seeing, what he means is, women are turned away from emergency rooms and miscarriaging in parking lots, whether they like it or not. Survivors of rape and incest are being forced to carry those pregnancies to term, whether they like it or not. Fertility clinics have turned couples away at the door, whether they like it or not.”

The governor then said: “I kind of have a feeling that women all across this country from every walk of life, from either party, are going to send a loud and clear message to Donald Trump next Tuesday, November 5th — Whether he likes it or not.”